Saturday, February 4, 2023

BRACKETOLOGY: Where is Rutgers projected to land in the field of 68?

 

image courtesy of the NCAA

Where is Rutgers projected to land in the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

Let's Talk About the Resume

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off to one of their most impressive seasons under Steve Pikiell. The Scarlet Knights are current 16-7 overall, 8-4 in the Big Ten, and remain in the top four of the conference standings. Rutgers owns a number of quality wins including their upset 65-64 upset of #1 Purdue in early January for the second year in a row. Rutgers also has a  combined Q1/2 record of 7-6 which is another upside for them in terms of the NET. The Scarlet Knights are currently ranked 19 in the NET Rankings.

Currently, Rutgers is 3-4 against Q1 opponents but they also own quality victories over Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern. The victories over Purdue and Indiana might be the most impressive for Rutgers on the season. The Scarlet Knights beat Purdue on the road and beat Indiana by 15 points. Rutgers' losses to Q1 teams have been relatively close as their largest defeat was to Michigan State in mid-January by the score of 70-57.

The Scarlet Knights have a solid 5-2 record against Q2 opponents. Rutgers owns victories over Michigan State, Maryland, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Penn State. It should be noted that of the five Q2 wins by Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights beat Maryland by 14, Penn State by 20, and Wake Forest by 24. Beating Q2 teams by that many points is highly impressive.

Rutgers is currently 1-1 against Q3 opponents. As of right now, the only glaring loss on Rutgers' resume is a 72-66 neutral floor defeat to Temple back in mid-November when Rutgers was missing two key starters. However, this is may change as the Temple Owls have been surging in the NET Rankings and the loss may bump to a Q2 loss for Rutgers. Temple is currently 115 in the NET, and for the game to become a Q2 loss, the Owls would have to rank 100 or better. The Scarlet Knights face two more Q3 opponents on the season to include a home game against Nebraska (2/14) and an away game against Minnesota (3/2).

This year's team has avoided all of the landmines on their schedule. In fact, Rutgers is beating Q4 opponents by 30 points or more, which helps to boost their ranking in the NET. This past week the Scarlet Knights waxed the Minnesota Golden Gophers at The RAC, 90-55. This victory accounts for the largest margin of victory over a conference foe for Rutgers since joining the Big Ten.

The Metrics

The metrics are definitely trending in Rutgers favor as the Scarlet Knights are rated the 2nd best team in the country for defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Although, their defense is rated 2nd in the land, the Scarlet Knights offense is not too bad as they rank 121st for offensive efficiency. 

It really has been the elite defense by Rutgers that has helped them garner big wins. Rutgers is currently 8-0 in the Big Ten when holding opponents under 65 points. Overall, the Scarlet Knights are also 16-1 when holding opponents under 65 points for the season.

Across several major college basketball metrics heavy web sites, Rutgers ranks within the Top 20 in the country. 

  • KenPom - 14
  • Sagarin - 17
  • Torvik - 16
  • Haslametrics - 20
  • ESPN BPI - 9

The Remaining Schedule

The remaining schedule for Rutgers tends to lighten up after a very difficult week that lies ahead. Rutgers faces a tough test when they travel on Tuesday to Bloomington, IN to face the Indiana Hoosiers. Then Rutgers travels to Champaign, IL next Saturday to face the Illinois Fighting Illini. These two games are probably Rutgers stiffest challenges that remain on their schedule. Both games will be opportunities for Rutgers to pick up Q1 victories.

If Rutgers were to win both games this week against Indiana and Illinois, the Scarlet Knights would put themselves well into the driver's seat for a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament barring any collapses towards the end of the season. A 4-seed for Rutgers would be a protected seed and the Rutgers would likely play in Albany, NY in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament. 

If Rutgers were to split this upcoming week, they are still in very solid position to possibly earn a protected 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Again, barring any bad losses towards the end of the season.

If Rutgers finishes this week at 0-2 but win majority of their remaining games on the season, the Scarlet Knights are probably looking at a 5/6-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and will succumb to the committee's decision of where they play in the 1st Round for the NCAA Tournament.

Bart Torvik and KenPom projects Rutgers to finish 21-10 overall, and 13-7 in the Big Ten. Torvik also gives Rutgers a 47% chance to win in Bloomington, and a 49% chance to win in Champaign. 

Rutgers is favored to win in all of their games after the games against Indiana and Illinois.

Remaining Schedule:

  • 2/7, at Indiana (Q1, 22)
  • 2/11, at Illinois (Q1, 25)
  • 2/14, Nebraska (Q3, 99)
  • 2/18, at Wisconsin (Q1, 68)
  • 2/23, Michigan (Q2, 71)
  • 2/26, at Penn State (Q31, 54)
  • 3/2, at Minnesota (Q3, 224)
  • 3/5, Northwestern (Q2, 57)

What do the Bracketologists Think About Rutgers?

According to BracketMatrix.com, Rutgers has appeared in 90 brackets and are averaging a 5-seed. Bart Torvik is the only analyst that projects Rutgers to land a potential 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Torvik also gives Rutgers a 99.1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. JBR Bracketology gives Rutgers the lowest seed of the many bracketologists. JBR Bracketology projects Rutgers to land in the field of 68 as a 7-seed.

  • Brad Wachtel of Facts and Bracks projects Rutgers to be a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 12-seed Kent State in Albany, NY. Brad is one of the highest rated and most accurate bracketologists, according to BracketMatrix.com.
  • Jonathon Warriner of Making the Madness projects Rutgers as a 5-seed in the East Region in Albany, NY. He has Rutgers potentially facing 12-seed Southern Mississippi.
  • Mike Decourcy of FOX Sports projects Rutgers as a 5-seed in the Midwest Region. Decourcy has Rutgers potentially playing the 12-seed winner of the First Four game between Oklahoma State and Arizona State in Orlando, FL. Of the major sports networks, Mike Decourcy is a highly-rated bracketologist and has been very accurate over the last couple of years, according to BracketMatrix.com.
  • ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects Rutgers to be in the NCAA Tournament as a 5-seed playing in the West Region and potentially facing 12-seed Oral Roberts in Albany, NY. Joe Lunardi is one of the more popular bracketologists in college basketball, but receives lower scores and ratings according to BracketMatrix.com.
  • JBR Bracketology projects Rutgers to land in the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed potentially facing 10-seed NC State in Denver, CO. 
** UPDATE - As of 2/5, Maryland is now a Q1 victory for Rutgers. The Terrapins moved up to 28th in the recent edition of the NET Rankings. The NET Rankings were updated after this article was written.**

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Q&A with Camden Markel of The Daily Targum


A lot has transpired over the last couple of weeks for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights men's basketball program, including huge commitments from a few highly rated Rutgers recruits. Also, with the announcement of Dylan Harper, one of the top recruits in the country for the '24 class, narrowing down his schools of choice down to five (Rutgers, Duke, Auburn, Indiana, and Kansas), we thought this would be the perfect time to share this Q&A with Rutgers fans. 

To help us understand a little more about the incoming '23 and '24 classes and to understand more about what it means to be a student journalist at Rutgers, Rutgers Hoops Insider reached out to an aspiring young student journalist Camden Markel of The Daily Targum for a good old Q&A. Camden has covered much of the recent Rutgers men's basketball recruiting news for The Daily Targum. You can check out Camden's work at https://dailytargum.com/staff/camden-markel. Also, you can follow Camden on Twitter @CamdenMarkel.


Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Camden, thanks for taking the time out of your busy day to do a Q&A with me today. You're a student journalist with The Daily Targum and have done a great job covering Rutgers Men's Basketball, especially the recruiting aspect. Let me start this Q&A by asking you, how did you get involved with becoming a student journalist and wanting to write for The Daily Targum?

Camden Markel (CM): Well I’m majoring in journalism and media studies and basketball is my biggest interest, so writing for The Daily Targum was really a no brainer. It’s been a great platform for me to be a part of thus far and I can’t wait to continue writing for them. 


RHI: While you're a student at Rutgers, do you plan on covering just Rutgers Men's Basketball, or are there any other Rutgers sports you plan on covering?


CM: Basketball is definitely my top sport and my favorite one to cover. I would say it’s the sport I’m most knowledgeable about as well so it maximizes my writing potential. I also love football and have written a football article for The Daily Targum in the past and would be happy to cover that more in the future. With that being said, I did just receive the beat writer position for Rutgers Men’s Lacrosse so I’ll be covering a lot of that in the future. I appreciate any writing opportunity that I can get, so whether it’s basketball, lacrosse or anything else in between, I’m happy to cover it and get my writing out there.


RHI: What have you learned the most about covering Rutgers Men's Basketball since you started writing for The Daily Targum?


CM: I’ve learned just how passionate the Rutgers community is with the men’s basketball team. With covering the team, recruiting especially, I’ve had to really keep my ear to the ground and stay up to date with all the latest information regarding the team. Doing this, I found myself on Twitter a lot and learned of the countless number of accounts that are dedicated solely to Rutgers basketball. It's clear that there’s a passion for this program and there’s a great niche within the fandom of people who all share that same passion and knowledge of Rutgers basketball.


RHI: I mentioned earlier that you have done a great job covering the recruiting aspect for Rutgers Men's Basketball. According to Rivals.com, the 2023 recruiting class for Rutgers, which includes Gavin Griffiths, Baye Ndongo, and Jamichael Davis, ranks as the 25th best in the nation. What impact do you think this recruiting class will have on Rutgers Men's Basketball going forward?


CM: The impact of those three will be immeasurable. I think they’ll fit right in at Rutgers. They each fit a certain mold that head coach Steve Pikiell continues to desire to have on his team. As freshmen, I think there’s a chance that all three of them get solid playing time right away and mesh into the system smoothly. I think moving forward, this recruiting class could have a snowball effect on the Knights’ recruiting moving forward. We’ve already seen this a bit with the commitment of Ace Bailey. Ultimately, I think this could go down as the recruiting class that shifted the culture of Rutgers basketball and made it a clear desirable destination for high-level recruits.


RHI: Rutgers fans are extremely excited to see highly-touted recruit Gavin Griffiths (West Hartford CT) join the program next season. Griffiths ranks as the 20th best player nationally in the 2023 Recruiting Rankings by Rivals.com and they recently upgraded him to 5-stars. He is rated 42nd nationally by ESPN, 38th by On3, and 37th by 247 Sports. Rutgers fans got a real glimpse of what Griffiths is capable of when he showcased his talents "The Battle of New Jersey" at The RAC. What can you tell us about Gavin Griffiths and what he brings to the table next year when he suits up for Rutgers?


CM: Griffiths will surely contribute right away. As we’ve seen up to this point, he pretty much does it all for his high school squad. Although he may not come in right away and be the focal point of the entire offense, his shooting ability alone should slot him into the starting lineup and allow him to get plenty of shots up every time he touches the floor for the Knights. I expect him to be more of a spot-up shooter coming in as a freshman but I believe he will progress into a three-level scorer as time goes on. Rutgers has always been a team where the guys getting big minutes are the guys who have been on the team for multiple years, but Griffiths will surely shift that trend a bit as he is simply too good and too highly rated to be denied his fair share of minutes.


RHI: You covered Rutgers' recruitment of Jamichael Davis (Powder Springs GA), and fans were sort of caught off guard when Davis committed to the Scarlet Knights in mid-December. I'm super excited about Jamichael Davis. I've seen some film on him, and he is a very crafty, speedy and athletic guard who can inject some life into the backcourt; however, there isn't a whole lot known about him. What can you tell us about Davis? What does he do that impresses? Tell us why Rutgers is excited to have him play for the team next year? Do you think Davis has a chance at joining the rotation next year?


CM: To be honest, I was right there with the majority of people when he committed as I had to really do my research to educate myself on Davis and his game. Since his commitment, it seems like his name has been popping up more and more and the hype is building. As a teammate of Ace Bailey, Davis was sort of that guy that you’d see when you’re watching Bailey’s highlights and think, “this guy can play too”. Now, there are highlights of his own popping up and he’s getting the solo recognition he deserves. Davis possesses incredible athleticism and burst. What really impresses me is the ferocity and fearlessness you can see in him when he plays. He’s not the biggest guard but it doesn’t matter to him as he’ll take on just about anybody. Davis fits that Derek Simpson archetype that Pikiell seems to be sought after and surely the Rutgers staff is excited to get another fearless, athletic guard to hopefully develop into a star. I think next year, barring the inevitable roster mix ups of players leaving and players joining the team, Davis has a chance to crack the rotation in the same way Derek Simpson has this season with some sporadic, exciting minutes off the bench where he hopefully lights a spark.


RHI: Baye Ndongo (Putnam CT) was a big commit for the Scarlet Knights as he chose Rutgers over Michigan, San Diego, Nebraska, and Colorado. He is an impressive player with size and athleticism, and his stock is only climbing on several college basketball recruiting services. Rivals.com recently rated him as the 140th best player nationally in the 2023 Recruiting Rankings. Ndongo appears to be the type of player that might be able to make a direct impact for Rutgers next season. Tell us why you think Ndongo is the type of player Rutgers needs and what role he will play when comes to Rutgers next season.


CM: Ndongo is lengthy, athletic and versatile. These are three traits that just about any team can use from their players. Ndongo is a natural at blocking shots and can guard out on the wing and in the post. With the right role and development, I’d project him to be an excellent glue guy for the Knights who can play as a small-ball center or either of the forward positions in a more traditional lineup. I believe he still has some developing to do as he remains a pretty raw prospect at the moment, but we’ve seen Pikiell take in players like that in the past and have them pan out tremendously (Cliff Omoruyi is an example of this). Ndongo has fantastic size standing at 6-foot-10 and perhaps even more importantly, he moves very fluidly at that size. He does things that not many players of his stature can do. While we mostly have just seen this in flashes, with time, Ndongo could turn into that highly coveted archetype of players who possess incredible size, length and athleticism and pair it with skills similar to that of a smaller wing player. Coming in so raw, I expect him to deliver some blocked shots and dunks early on at Rutgers. The hope is that soon after, we see him flourish into a guy who can score in various ways in addition to his versatile defensive ability.


RHI: By now, the college basketball world knows the Rutgers 2024 recruiting class is going to be loaded. Rutgers was able to secure huge commits from 5-star Airious Bailey (Powder Springs GA) and 4-star Dellquan Warren (Erie PA). The current Rutgers 2024 recruiting class ranks 3rd in the nation, according to Rivals.com, which might be the highest recruiting class ever under Steve Pikiell. What can you tell us about how this recruiting class is going to shape Rutgers basketball for the future?


CM: Like I said earlier, I think the 2023 class, especially Gavin Griffiths, set the tone that major recruits can come play here. This 2024 class takes that idea and runs with it. Having such highly touted recruits commit to Rutgers puts the program under national spotlight. It shows to the average college basketball fans, coaches and teams that something is being built here. Whether it’s visible to the general public or not, there’s something to be said about such highly regarded players visiting here, meeting the coaches and the program and ultimately choosing them over other programs that may be more renowned across the country by most people. This recruiting class will change the scope of Rutgers basketball forever if they can capitalize on the talent of these recruits with on-court success.


RHI: Rutgers fans were extremely pleased when Dellquan Warren committed to Rutgers after the Scarlet Knights thumped Coppin State. Warren is a true speedster on the court and plays extremely tough defense. Warren currently ranks 91st nationally in the 2024 Recruiting Rankings, according to Rivals.com. He is the prototype for what Steve Pikiell and his staff were looking for. Where do you think Warren fits on the roster when he joins Rutgers in 2024? What role do you think he steps into when he plays?


CM: I think when Warren joins the team he will certainly have some competition in the backcourt but he’ll be up for that challenge. Warren has athleticism, a solid jumper and looks to be a great facilitator on offense. Watching him play, I can already see the Big Ten point guard in his game. I think he’ll do just that for Rutgers when he arrives in 2024 and he’ll run Steve Pikiell’s offense very well. 


RHI: Airious "Ace" Bailey is heralded as one of the highest rated recruits in Rutgers basketball history. He is rated 5th nationally in the 2024 Recruiting Rankings, according to Rivals.com. He is also rated 5th by On3, 6th by 247 Sports, and 7th by ESPN. He announced his decision to commit to Rutgers after the Scarlet Knights pulled out an overtime win against Ohio State at The RAC. Not only does he have the tools and skills to be a powerful offensive player, but he is a great rebounder, which is something Steve Pikiell really likes in a player. When Bailey arrives to The Banks, do you think he will make an immediate impact on the floor? What other intangibles does Bailey possess that could help Rutgers?


CM: I think Bailey will surely make an immediate impact. A player of his caliber can be a top option on Rutgers right away and should immediately be one of the better players, at least better freshmen, in the Big Ten Conference. Bailey can fill just about any role Pikiell needs him to. He could be an isolation/primary scorer, a secondary scorer or simply a role player who grabs rebounds and gets buckets when he needs to. I expect him to immediately be a top two scorer on the team when he arrives in 2024. 


RHI: It's already known that Rutgers is recruiting 5-star Dylan Harper, brother of Ron Harper Jr., extremely hard. According to Rivals.com, Dylan Harper is rated the 10th best player nationally in the 2024 Recruiting Rankings. Rutgers is up against some quality blue blood competition as Duke, Indiana, and Kansas have all offered Harper. In October, Harper took an official visit to Duke, but he has also taken four unofficial visits to Rutgers and has been noticed in attendance at several games at The RAC. Do you think Rutgers is close to sealing the deal with Dylan Harper? Some fans get the warm fuzzy feeling he would commit to Rutgers because he is the brother of the great Ron Harper Jr. but do you think this is true? If Harper decides to commit elsewhere, what other players has Rutgers prioritized in the 2024 recruiting class?


CM: I’m not completely sold on saying that Rutgers is close to sealing the deal with Harper. I think it’s definitely a top 2-3 option for him but at the end of the day he’s going to go where he wants to, Rutgers family legacy aside. In addition to Harper in the 2024 class, Rutgers is targeting a long time friend and AAU teammate of Harper, 4-star small forward Tyler Betsey. The Knights are also targeting 4-star power forward Donnie Freeman who visited the RAC for the win over Indiana this season alongside Harper. 4-star point guard Del Jones, 4-star shooting guard Kur Teng, 3-star power forward Bryce Dortch, 3-star small forward Nate Guerengomba and 3-star small forward Darrion Sutton are other names in the 2024 class who have received offers from Rutgers. 


RHI: The future looks extremely bright for Rutgers basketball. I said it earlier, the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes are going to loaded with great players with all around great skills and each player brings something unique to Rutgers. I don't want to get too high on my horse here and I don't want to gaslight fans, but do you think with how well these classes are projected to be, do you think Rutgers could be competing for a national championship?


CM: Come 2024, if Rutgers is rolling out lineups consisting of Dellquan Warren, Dylan Harper, Gavin Griffiths, Ace Bailey and Donnie Freeman, then yes. Rutgers should be competing for a national championship. A lot has to go right for the Knights, but the chance is certainly there and the stars could  end up aligning. 


RHI: Camden, once again, thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to do this Q&A. I appreciate all of your answers and opinions. Let's do this again.


CM: Thanks so much!!