(photo by Scott Faytok of NJ Media Advance)
Rutgers has been improving its performance and tournament resume
The entire college basketball world has been swept off its feet and is now aware who the Rutgers Scarlet Knights truly are. Rutgers is on a historic winning streak after becoming the first unranked college basketball team to upset four ranked opponents in a row (#19 Michigan State, #18 Ohio State, #15 Wisconsin, and #12 Illinois). Rutgers is now 5-1 against AP Top 25 teams this season. Rutgers and #5 Purdue share the best record against AP Top 25 teams in the entire country. Not even #1 Gonzaga or #2 Auburn can make that claim.
This all comes as a major surprise to the college basketball world after Rutgers suffered early season losses to Massachusetts and Lafayette, as well as losses to the bottom four teams in the Big Ten Conference (Penn State, Northwestern, Maryland, and Minnesota). However, Rutgers is still in contention with the Big Ten's best for first place and possibly in position to earn a share of the regular season Big Ten season title. Many fans and media outlets have written off Rutgers early on in the season, but the Scarlet Knights have continued fighting.
It has been attributed to the second half of the game against Northwestern in early February as to what sparked Rutgers to go on an improbable run against the best teams in the Big Ten. Despite the loss to Northwestern, Coach Steve Pikiell made many changes defensively and offensively in the second half, which led to success for Rutgers and they almost won the game in overtime after trailing as much as 24 points. Rutgers learned a lot about themselves after that game. They applied from what they learned in the second half of the Northwestern game to each one of their games that followed. The result? An historic four-game winning streak against ranked opponents.
Coach Pikiell has Rutgers playing at a very high level since the Northwestern game, and it was only a matter of time until this team found its true identity. Rutgers is playing with more intensity and focus than they did earlier in the season. Rutgers has drastically improved its team chemistry, including better distribution of the ball and less isolation play. Rutgers is also back to playing very physical, swarming defense. Physicality and defense have always been the cornerstone of Pikiell's teams. The Scarlet Knights are a team no one wants to play right now.
Analysis
Currently, Rutgers has a NET ranking of 74. A road win against #5 Purdue this weekend would be massive, and certainly boost their NET ranking. It would be yet another Q1 win for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers boasts a record of 6-3 against Q1 teams, one of the best in the country and a record of 5-1 against ranked teams in the AP Poll, tied with Purdue for the best in college basketball. Here is Rutgers record against each quadrant in the NET rankings:
- Quadrant 1: 6-3
- Quadrant 2: 2-3
- Quadrant 3: 2-2
- Quadrant 4: 6-1
Despite the early season losses to Lafayette (Q4) and Massachusetts (Q3), Rutgers appears to be on its way to a possible at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. According to Bracket Matrix, as of February 16, Rutgers is projected to land between a 10-12 seed in the NCAA Tournament in at least 13 different brackets. Popular bracketologists like Joe Lunardi (of ESPN) and Jerry Palm (of CBS Sports) have projected Rutgers as an 11-seed. This will likely improve if Rutgers were to win 3 out of their 5 remaining games of the regular season and if they can pick up win in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.
Before Rutgers fans can start celebrating and dancing, Rutgers has to finish the season strong. The NCAA Tournament Committee will likely watch Rutgers very closely, and will look to see how Rutgers finishes in its last 10 games.
Rutgers has road games remaining against Purdue (2/20), Michigan (2/23), and Indiana (3/2), all which are Q1 opponents. The Committee loves when they see good teams win on the road, and it will be imperative for Rutgers to snag a road victory down the stretch. Rutgers is currently 3-7 on the road this season. Rutgers has road victories over Wisconsin (Q1), Maryland (Q2), and Nebraska (Q3). Although the Scarlet Knights' road record does not look as impressive, consider Big Ten foes Indiana's and Iowa's records on the road. Indiana's record on the road is just 2-6 while Iowa's is 3-5. Currently, both teams are projected to land in the Field of 68, and are projected to seed better than Rutgers despite both teams' having slightly worse quality wins on the road. Indiana has only beaten Maryland (Q2) and Nebraska (Q3) on the road this season. Iowa's best road wins were against Utah State (Q2), Virginia (Q2), and Minnesota (Q2). If Rutgers truly wants to get the monkey off its back and secure a sure bid, it would be ideal for Rutgers to win one of its three remaining road contests.
Rutgers has only two remaining home games, which include Wisconsin (2/26) and Penn State (3/6). The game against Wisconsin would be an opportunity for another Q1 victory; however, the game against Penn State would be a potential Q2 or Q3 matchup depending where the Nittany Lions land in the NET rankings by March 6th. A Q2 win against Penn State would help boost the Scarlet Knights' NET ranking by just a little bit; however, if Penn State were to enter the game as a Q3 opponent, a loss to the Nittany Lions could be damaging to their tournament chances. Rutgers must win both of these games. Rutgers is currently 13-2 at home this season and they have made it virtually a nightmare for opponents to play the Scarlet Knights at The RAC. Rutgers has made incredible adjustments the last two weeks during their historic run, and it will likely continue when the Badgers and Nittany Lions come to Piscataway.
Opinion
If Rutgers were to continue its historic run with a string of upsets down the stretch it is possible Rutgers could be looking at potentially winning or sharing the Big Ten regular season title. It would be a remarkable turn of events for a team that was left for dead back in November when they suffered two poor losses by the likes of Massachusetts and Lafayette. It would truly be a real embarrassment and a shame if Rutgers were to finish in the top four of the Big Ten Conference and receive a double digit seed from the NCAA Tournament Committee. However, Rutgers has to remain focused and take each game at a time, and most importantly, WIN!
If you want to track the Rutgers Scarlet Knights NET ranking summary report, please visit the NCAA's summary sheet here.
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