Preview & Keys to the Game: Rutgers at #1 Purdue (January 2, 2023)

photo courtesy of USA Today

Rutgers (9-4, 1-1) at #1 Purdue (13-0, 2-0)

After another dominant non-conference win, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will resume Big Ten play and travel to West Lafayette, IN to take on college basketball's number one ranked team in the country the Purdue Boilermakers (7 PM ET, BTN). Rutgers has been in similar territory against Purdue before. Last year, college hoops fans can remember Ron Harper Jr's buzzer-beater at The RAC that stunned then number one ranked Purdue. It was the first time Purdue had ever been ranked number one. This time, the Scarlet Knights are entering the lion's den at Mackey Arena, one of the best college basketball atmospheres, and the Boilermakers will be ready. Tonight's game is definitely going to be the biggest test for Rutgers all season. Rutgers has yet to win a game on the road this year.

Purdue enters tonight's contest at 4th in the NET Rankings, and 6th in KenPom Ratings while Rutgers enters at 20th in the NET, and a tied program best at 18th in the KenPom. Purdue owns non-conference marquee wins over Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke. The Boilermakers are first in the Big Ten standings at 2-0 with a blowout victory over Minnesota and escaped Nebraska with an overtime win.

Purdue is a very well-balanced offensive and defensive team. According to NCAA Statistics, Purdue rates high in several offensive categories:

• Scoring offense - 78th
• FT% - 36th
• FT attempts per game - 20th
• Off. rebounds per game - 29th
• Assists per game - 67th

While some of the offensive statistics are not glaring, Purdue is a fantastic rebounding team that create second chance opportunities. Defensively, Purdue rates high in several categories, according to NCAA Statistics:

• Scoring defense - 20th
• 3PT% defense - 15th
• FG% defense - 22nd
• Def. rebounds per game - 19th

The only category Purdue ranks poorly in defensively is forced turnovers per game where Purdue ranks near the bottom in the country. (For more stats on Purdue click here)

Purdue's offense runs through their big man Zach Edey. Everybody knows about one of the nation's best players in Edey. After all, the big guy is up for national awards and accolades. Edey is averaging 21.9 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 63% FG shooting, and 72% FT shooting. Fletcher Loyer is second to Edey in scoring, averaging 12.3 ppg. Purdue is not a great 3PT shooting team; however, Brandon Newman and Fletcher Loyer take a big bulk of their shoots from deep. Newman is averaging a respective 35% and Loyer is averaging 32%. 

Rutgers is a more efficient team defensively, but the players share the basketball evenly on offense, signs of a very unselfish team. Rutgers is likely to rely heavily on its defense to stifle the Purdue as the Scarlet Knights boast the nation's third best defense. Rutgers ranks high in many defensive categories, according to NCAA Statistics:

• Scoring defense - 4th
• Blocks per game - 87th
• FG% defense - 5th
• 3PT% defense - 3rd
• Def. rebounds per game - 63rd
• Turnovers forced per game - 23rd
• Steals per game - 11th

Cam Spencer leads Rutgers in 2.7 spg while Caleb McConnell is close at 2.3 spg. Cliff Omoroyi is not only Rutgers' leading scorer at 15.0 ppg but he grabs 10.1 rpg. Rutgers does have three other players that score in double figures per game including Cam Spencer (12.8 ppg), Aundre Hyatt (10.7 ppg), and Caleb McConnell (10.6 ppg). Cam Spencer is also Rutgers' best 3PT shooter at 43.3% followed by Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell at 33.3%.

Can the Scarlet Knights pull off another big upset of #1 Purdue? 

Purdue's Last 3 Games:

12/29 - Florida A&M (359, Q4), W 82-49

12/21 - New Orleans (358, Q4), W 74-53

12/17 - vs Davidson (166, Q3), W 69-61

KEYS TO THE GAME

• Shutdown Zach Edey - It's clear Purdue's offense runs through Zach Edey. The big man is averaging 21.9 ppg. Just as Rutgers had shutdown big man Trayce Jackson-Davis of Indiana back in early December, the Scarlet Knights are going to have to mimic the same style of defense. They are going to have to find ways to front and double team the big man, forcing him into committing turnovers and uncomfortable shots. Cliff Omoruyi will be facing his biggest test of the season, and Cliff will have to get physical in the trenches with Edey. Cliff will have to scrap for every rebound but also be smart in not committing fouls, especially early in the game. As crazy as this sounds, Rutgers is going to have to continue to go down low offensively in order to draw fouls against Edey. The more the Scarlet Knights can draw fouls against Edey, the more you take him out of the game. Ideally, getting Edey in foul trouble early will greatly benefit Rutgers.
• Force turnovers - Rutgers is going to have to apply pressure early in the game and force the Boilermakers into uncomfortable situations. Rutgers may have to do this majority of the game. Purdue does not turnover the ball a lot, but they also haven't faced a high-pressure defense like Rutgers all season long. Can Rutgers sustain a high-pressure defense for majority of the game?
• Limit second chance opportunities - Purdue has one of the best rebounding teams in the country, but Rutgers is also a very good rebounding team as well. Rutgers is going to have to find a way to limit Purdue's second chance opportunities on the glass. If Rutgers can limit any second chance opportunities, the Scarlet Knights have a good chance at winning this game.
• No slow starts, work for good shots, convert 2nd chances - Rutgers has done a fantastic job of starting their games without falling behind early. They have gotten off to good starts while working for good shots, solid ball distribution, and solid offensive rebounding to create second chance opportunities. Rutgers will have maintain the same intensity and focus to keep themselves from falling behind early in the game. This Rutgers team is not the type of team that is built to come from behind. It feels as if almost every possession is going to important in this game so Rutgers is going to want to limit the amount of empty trips to the basket.
• Maintain mental focus - Mackey Arena is one of the best atmospheres in college basketball, and you know Purdue fans are going to bring it. It's going to be loud and hectic. Rutgers is going to have maintain strong mental focus in this game, and now let the crowd get to them. That also means no unnecessary fouls, especially technical fouls. Last year, Cliff Omoruyi lost his cool in the game at West Lafayette which led to a technical foul and let Purdue expand it's lead. KEEP YOUR EMOTIONS IN CHECK!
• Get Spencer going early - Rutgers is 7-2 when Cam Spencer scores in double figures. Spencer has to create space on the perimeter and take a risk at shooting from deep. Heck, Spencer is shooting 43% from deep, so he should take those shots! 
• PM must be the best floor general - Paul Mulcahy is great at creating plays and distributing the basketball. I have said it many times, this kid is a wizard with the basketball. He has the innate ability to pass the ball and maneuver in tight spaces. If PM can get going with his ball distribution and ability to maneuver, Rutgers has a really good shot at winning this game.