Q&A with JBR Bracketology

Selection Sunday is only a month away, and only a few teams from the college basketball landscape have locked in their bids for the NCAA Tournament while others are fighting for their lives to get into the tournament.

The Big Ten Conference is one of the most competitive leagues from top to bottom and are projected to land as many as eight teams in the field, maybe even nine. However, there is certainly a lot of basketball left in the regular season for teams to make a run and cover lost ground. There is also enough basketball left for teams to have an utter catastrophic collapse at the end of the regular season.

Once the regular season is over, the conference tournaments begin, and bid stealers lurk in the shadows and the most unlikely upsets occur.

You can just feel the anxiety and nervousness amongst the fan bases. 

That's why I've decided to reach out to bracketology expert Jason R. of JBR Bracketology. Jason explains the hard work that goes into creating a bracket, and the specific data he analyzes when selecting teams. Jason also answers my questions about what Rutgers needs to do to ensure a bid into the NCAA Tournament and what possible seed they can achieve. I also asked a few questions about other teams in the Big Ten and where do they project to land in the field, as well as some of the perceived bubble teams in the Big Ten.

Please follow and support JBR Bracketology on Twitter @ JBRBracketology. Jason updates his brackets every few days during the week.

 

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jason, thanks for taking some time out of your day today to do a Q&A with me. You’re a 2015 Maryland graduate and have been following college basketball for as long as you can remember. You told me Maryland’s national championship in 2002 fueled your passion for college hoops at a very young age. Over the last four years, you’ve taken up an interest in bracketology and call it JBR Bracketology. So, I think it would be appropriate as my first question to ask why did you take up an interest in doing your own bracketology?

Jason R. (JBR): Thanks for having me! I first started bracketology during the 2020 season. Maryland was a top 10 team most of the season and I just kept feeling like the Terps were being disrespected by bracketologists, as the Big Ten was the #1 conference that season per KenPom. So I was curious to see what they were seeing, what was holding the Terps back.

RHI: In last year’s NCAA Tournament, you selected 67 out of 68 teams correctly, and at least had 66 out of 68 teams seeded within +/-1 seed line for a total score of 357. Is there a magic formula you use when selecting teams? What rankings and metrics do you pay most attention to when it comes to selecting teams? What truly goes into building a bracket?

JBR: I had two real misses last year – one was including Texas A&M over Notre Dame, and the other was seeding Colgate as a 16 when the committee had them as a 14 seed. The Texas A&M snub served as a reminder how little the committee takes the final two days of conference tournaments into account. Colgate was a silly one to get wrong, but have tweaked my formula to better account for the mid to low major AQs and what the committee is looking for. I am proud of the fact that every single at large team I had seeded exactly correct or one seed line off. Following Selection Sunday, I spent several hours combing through the data to make changes for this year to be as accurate as I can be when matching what the committee is looking for!

In terms of a secret formula, I have always been very analytical. I love my spreadsheets, I love math, I love using numbers. In other words – yes, I do use a secret formula. When I first started back in 2020, I was obviously new and had a tough time figuring out how to adjust the weights for quad records, the NET, the resume metrics, the predictive metrics etc. to best match the committee. It’s a growing process and I make changes all the time. Most of them now are pretty minor, but being adaptable is key. The categories I look at are weighted record (different weights for wins by Quad), weighed win percentage, Quad 1A wins, wins over projected 1 or 2 seeds, NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI and Non-Conference SOS. They are all weighted differently, but at the end of the day, the most important thing is always going to be quality wins.

RHI: I’ve noticed you have had many constructive debates and conversations with many bracketologists, and sometimes you’ve been critical of some bracketologists. What do you think separates yourself from some of the other bracketologists, and why do you think your bracket this year will be more accurate than most other bracketologists?

JBR: Haha, yes, I do love some occasional friendly banter. One of the things I think I excel at in this field is eliminating bias. Because my seeding is almost entirely formulaic, it reduces the chances that I let my own personal bias influence where a team is seeded. Now obviously, my formula is dictated by my own mathematical inputs and various weights I put on each category, but me disliking Duke isn’t going to change where my formula has them. As an example, I am pretty sure my formula has been lower on Maryland than Bracket Matrix/ consensus for weeks now. But that’s ok. I’m not necessarily trying to make friends here, just trying to display what I honestly think committee would do.

RHI: I wanted to shift gears and turn our attention to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Big Ten Conference. I’m going to get straight to the point and ask you, how many teams from the Big Ten are going to make the tournament this year? Which teams?

JBR: I will say Big Ten gets 8 bids. Northwestern all but secured their spot with a massive win over Purdue. I could see Wisconsin or Michigan earning the league's 9th bid, but I think the chances of that are low with each of them dropping key games this weekend.

RHI: You have the Purdue Boilermakers as the number 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament in your latest projections. Alabama has been playing incredible basketball all year, do you think the Crimson Tide could dethrone the Boilermakers? If not Alabama, is there anyone else that can grab the number 1 spot?

JBR: Well, I think that will be switched already with Purdue falling to Northwestern as I type this. Alabama will move to #1, while Purdue will drop to #2. In terms of other teams capable of earning the #1 overall seed, I would say the winner of the Big 12 – Kansas or Texas, just because they will have an insane number of Quad 1 (and Quad 1A) wins.

RHI: Rutgers (21 in NET) is coming off a very difficult week. They had a big win over Michigan State at The Garden just about over a week ago, but they lost their key defensive starter Mawot Mag to an ACL tear in the process. Then Rutgers followed the Michigan State victory with two road losses to two very good teams in Indiana (Q1) and Illinois (Q1). Where do you have Rutgers in the field in your next update?

JBR: My next update will come out Monday afternoon. There were a lot of teams around Rutgers that lost this weekend, but I would expect Rutgers to come in as a low end 7 seed, if not the top 8 seed. The loss of Mawot Mag hurts, and we have now seen Rutgers go 0-2 without him, albeit against high level competition on the road.

RHI: Rutgers only has six games left in the regular season. In your opinion, what does Rutgers have to do to get back on the 5/6-seed line? At a minimum, what does Rutgers have to do to earn a single digit seed in the tournament?

JBR: To earn a single digit seed, I think Rutgers just needs to finish 3-3. To get back to the 5/6 line where they were before the Indiana & Illinois losses, they probably need to go 5-1. Currently, just one of their final 6 games are Quad 1 (2/26 @ Penn State). If Rutgers finishes 4-2, they probably end up with a 7 seed. Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. What the other teams around them do matters as well.

RHI: Wisconsin (73 in NET) and Penn State (62 in NET) are two teams that started off the season in great shape. Now, both teams are on the verge of collapse and are desperate to save their seasons. You had Wisconsin as one of your “First Four Out”, where are the Badgers now after their epic collapse against Nebraska on Saturday? Is Penn State still in the bubble conversation after losing their 4^th in a row? What do both teams have to do to get back in the conversation?

JBR: As I stated previously, my next update will come out Monday afternoon. The bubble had a *rough* Saturday, my guess is Wisconsin roughly stays in the same spot, as a member of the first four out, but maybe a couple spots closer to the next four out. Penn State following their loss to Maryland is going to have a really tough time making the tournament at this point. Good news is Penn State still has five Quad 1 games remaining. Win at least 3 of those, and they will at least be close. Win four and they’re probably a lock to earn an at large bid. But that is much easier said than done.

RHI: Maryland has been surging lately but they have been gifted a lighter conference schedule than most other Big Ten teams. By season’s end they will have played the Big Ten’s bottom tier teams twice (Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin). Maryland is 3-8 against Q1 opponents and they have only one Big Ten road win all season, which was against Minnesota, yet the Terps have a NET Ranking of 28. You currently have Maryland in the field as a 9-seed. The Terps close out the season against Purdue (home), Nebraska (away), Minnesota (home), Northwestern (home), Ohio State (away), and Penn State (away). What does Maryland have to do down the stretch to improve its seed? What is the worst case for scenario?

JBR: Terps likely jump to an 8 seed with their win over Penn State. But Maryland is still lacking an elite win. They have three Quad 1 wins, which is pretty good, but none of them are Quad 1A. To get to the 5 or 6 line, Maryland will either need to knock off Purdue or win at least 2 of their remaining road games - @ Nebraska, @ Ohio State, @ Penn State. Most likely scenario for Maryland I think is a 7 or 8 seed. Worst case scenario would be dropping down to bubble/ last four in.

RHI: Michigan has been a strange team no one’s been able to figure out. They have a couple head scratching losses but they also have some very impressive wins. Michigan is currently 14-11 overall, and 8-6 in the Big Ten with a NET Ranking of 64. Is Michigan in the bubble conversation? Should we dismiss Michigan from any tournament chatter? What do you think Michigan has to do to get into the tournament?

JBR: I wouldn’t dismiss Michigan, they do still have talent and are always a tough out. But that loss to Indiana on Saturday really hurt their at large chances. Currently 14-11, the Wolverines likely need to finish 5-1 to be a lock. 4-2 would get them close. 3-3 or worse, and Michigan will need to win Big Ten Tournament to earn a bid.

RHI: Give us your final prediction on Rutgers in their next six games, and where do you think they will land in the field on Selection Sunday.

JBR: I will say Rutgers finished 21-10 (13-7) and earns a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter - @JBRBracketology! Love talking college basketball with fellow Big Ten fans.

RHI: Jason, thanks again. It was a great conversation and hopefully we can do it again soon.