The 2022-23 college basketball regular season has come to a close and conference tournaments have already begun. This year's bubble picture seems more unclear than many can remember with so many teams fighting to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers is among several bubble teams fighting for their right to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
I last conducted a Q&A with JBR Bracketology on February 12th, and Rutgers was in prime position to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament but since then the Scarlet Knights have gone 2-6 in the closing stretch of the season, lost defensive stalwart Mawot Mag to an ACL tear, suffered a stunning defeat to lowly Minnesota, plummeted to 41 in the NET Rankings, and finished 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten Conference. It really has been a disappointing finish to a really promising season for the Scarlet Knights.
After dropping their last game of the season to Northwestern, Rutgers earned a 9-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will face 8-seed Michigan in Chicago on Thursday, March 9 at 12 PM (BTN). Rutgers and Michigan last met on the hardwood earlier in late February as the Wolverines marched on to 58-45 victory.
Now, Rutgers finds themselves in familiar territory. With their backs against the wall in a do-or-die situation, Rutgers must find a way to beat Michigan to potentially save their season and earn what would be their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament.
I reached out to Jason R. of JBR Bracketology again to get his take on what he feels Rutgers needs to do to get into the NCAA Tournament and the potential scenarios for the Scarlet Knights. I also asked Jason a few questions about other teams in the Big Ten, and how he feels about their chances as well.
Please follow and support JBR Bracketology on Twitter @ JBRBracketology. Jason updates his brackets every few days during the week but he is active on Twitter so if you have a question for him do not hesitate to reach out to him.
Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jason, thanks for doing this Q&A with me on such short notice. The NCAA Tournament is looming right around the corner and with conference tournaments under way with bubble teams needing an extra win or two to impress the Selection Committee, which teams are your bubble teams? Who are your Last Four In? Last Four Out? Next Four Out?
Jason R. (JBR): No problem. This is always an incredibly exciting but anxious time. My Last Four In are currently NC State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and Nevada. First Four Out is Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Michigan. And my Next Four Out is North Carolina, North Texas, Oregon and Oklahoma.
RHI: After losing their last two games of the regular season, Rutgers has dropped considerably in the Field of 68 projections. They were once dreaming of possibly earning a protected 4-seed but have since then gone 2-6 in the closing stretch of the regular season and are now faced with the reality that they might be headed to Dayton again as an 11-seed. Just how damaging was that loss to Minnesota last week to this team?
JBR: That loss was brutal. Most bracketologists were ready to "lock" Rutgers with that win. I was on the fence whether I was going to officially lock them, but regardless of the "lock" status, Rutgers was looking at a 99%+ chance at a bid had they won at Minnesota.
RHI: Many analysts and bracketologists feel Rutgers "must win" against Michigan on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament to save their season and earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Is this true? If Rutgers were to lose to Michigan on Thursday and other bubble teams lose their conference tournament games, does Rutgers still have a chance?
JBR: Do they still have a chance? Yes. But I don't think Rutgers gets in without a win vs Michigan. Between 1-3 bid stealers and some other bubble teams playing their way in, I think Rutgers gets left out.
RHI: Rutgers is currently 41 in the NET with a combined nine Q1/2 wins. They also have two Q1A wins on the year along with three Q1 road wins (Purdue, N'western, Penn State), potentially a fourth if Wisconsin beats Ohio State on Wednesday, and zero Q4 losses. As these appear to be very strong metrics, I also understand that Rutgers suffered three Q3 losses, poor strength of record (62nd), and a weak non-conference strength of schedule (313th). Do the negatives outweigh the positives for Rutgers in this case? Explain.
JBR: It's a balance. The Committee is going to look at the full body of work. My concern over the past month when it comes to Rutgers has been the two resume metrics - KPI and SOR. These are the two most important metrics in determining entry into the NCAA Tournament, whereas the NET and predictive metrics (KP/ Sagarin/ BPI) helps to round the teams into seeds more reflective of how "good" that team is. Rutgers currently sits at 58.0 resume average. The worst at large team to get in over the past five years was 2022 Rutgers at 57.5. A loss to Michigan likely pushes that resume average into the 60s and the NET into the mid 40s. At that point, I don't think the positives will be enough to overcome the negatives.
RHI: Aaron Breitman of The Scarlet Faithful first reported on Twitter, the NCAA Selection Committee will take into account that the Big Ten officially said the winning shot for Ohio State against Rutgers back in December should not have counted and the play should have been ruled dead. If Rutgers had won the game, it would have counted as a Q1 win for Rutgers making their record against Q1 opponents 6-6. Does this news change the current projection for Rutgers? If used as a tiebreaker among bubble teams, would this win be enough to push Rutgers into the field?
JBR: I don't think it changes much should Rutgers lose to Michigan. At that point, I still feel confident Rutgers would be out of the field. However, it does make me more confident that Rutgers gets an at-large spot should they beat Michigan and lose to Purdue.
RHI: Where do you currently have Rutgers in your projected bracketology? Explain why.
JBR: I have Rutgers #44 on the seed list, with the final at large team currently #46. The 7 losses outside of Quad 1, including 3 of them in Quad 3, really hurts. The NET and predictive metrics are good, but the volume of losses, especially outside of Quad 1, is really dragging this resume down. I would put at-large chances at about 85% with a win over Michigan and about 10% with a loss to Michigan. That's how close the margin is here.
RHI: Penn State has been on the bubble the entire season but they have turned things around despite blowing a 19-point lead at home last week to Rutgers. The Nittany Lions are 19-12 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten. They are 56th in the NET with almost similar metrics to Rutgers, except they have only one Q3 loss on the season. Penn State is currently projected as a 10/11-seed by other bracketologists. In your opinion, is Penn State safely in the field or should they still be concerned about their chances of making the NCAA Tournament?
JBR: Penn State has a sneaky impressive resume, and has really shot up my seed list over the past couple weeks. I now have Penn State as Last Four Byes. Penn State would be pretty much a lock with a win on Thursday over Illinois, but I still like their chances even if they lose that one. Their NET is comparatively worse than Rutgers', but both of their resume metrics are much stronger, contributing to their 45.0 resume average.
RHI: You've locked in many teams from the Big Ten to make the NCAA Tournament already. How come Iowa is locked in and not sweating it out after suffering two Q3 home losses and a Q4 home loss to Eastern Illinois (344)?
JBR: Iowa has a bit of an odd resume for sure. But they have a strong collection of wins, and are currently 9-6 vs the projected field with two true road wins. Their metrics are much better than Rutgers' (33 NET and 38.5 resume average) and I believe the committee will give them a little bit of a pass for the Eastern Illinois loss that came without Murray, though of course that game does still count.
RHI: Michigan has been a Jekyll-Hyde team this year in the Big Ten. There are days the Wolverines look great, some days they look okay, and other days they look bad. Michigan only has three Q1 wins on the season and one Q4 loss (Central Michigan, 329); however, they do have five Q2 wins and zero Q3 losses. Does Michigan have a fighter's chance at making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Rutgers on Thursday, or do they need to win the Big Ten Tournament to get into the Field of 68?
JBR: I think Michigan is in with a win over Rutgers and Purdue. But I think they have to win both. I think they are too far back to get in with just one win here vs Rutgers (or 0 wins).
RHI: When it is all said and done, how many teams total from the Big Ten do you have going to the Big Dance? Which teams?
JBR: 9 teams get in. Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Penn State and one of Rutgers/ Michigan.
RHI: Jason, once again, thanks for doing this on such short notice.
JBR: You are welcome. Good luck today!
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