Rutgers must re-assess their non-conference scheduling strategy after having a non-conference schedule that rated one of the worst in all of college basketball.
by Richard Kent & Mark Remsa
As the 2022-23 regular season has come to a close and the Big Ten Conference Tournament is about to begin, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights find themselves in a very difficult situation, one that was unfathomable only a month ago.
Rutgers was primed to make the NCAA Tournament as a single digit seed, but after dropping six of their last eight games and losing one of their best players Mawot Mag to an ACL tear for the year, the Scarlet Knights are currently projected by a majority of experts and bracketologists to be an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. As a matter of fact, many experts and bracketologists feel that because of the major slide Rutgers has suffered at the end of the season, the only way the Scarlet Knights will hear their names called on Selection Sunday is if they beat Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.
It's not only losing six of their last eight games of the regular season that has hurt Rutgers' chances of making the NCAA Tournament but it's also an issue of scheduling weak, low-level out-of-conference opponents.
The 2022-23 Non-Conference Schedule
Rutgers Hoops Insider conducted a deep dive evaluation of the 2022-23 non-conference schedule back in June and determined that although the Scarlet Knights slightly tweaked their non-conference scheduling strategy, there were not enough quality opponents to bolster their non-conference schedule and Rutgers continued their trend of playing lower-level opponents.
Prior to the 2022-23 season, Rutgers added what was considered to be "two more quality programs" to the non-conference schedule as compared to the 2021-22 season. Unfortunately, to Rutgers no fault of their own, the so-called "quality" opponents, Wake Forest and Temple, added to the non-conference schedule this season ended up becoming Quadrant 3 (Q3) teams when they were projected before the season to likely be Q2 caliber teams. Many felt this was Aaron McKie's best team at Temple and they failed to live up to the hype. Things were going in the right direction for Wake Forest under Steve Forbes, but unfortunately the season unraveled mid-way through the year and the Demon Deacons finished in the middle of a bad ACC Conference.
The Miami Hurricanes were the only Q1 foe on Rutgers' non-conference docket, and even then, the only reason why the Scarlet Knights faced the Hurricanes was because the 'powers that be' paired them together for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
At least nine of the eleven non-conference opponents Rutgers faced this season were Q3/4 opponents with Seton Hall rotating back and forth between Q2/3 status due to a down year under first year coach Shaheen Holloway. Also, six out-of-conference opponents Rutgers faced this year were Q4 opponents and five of the six were rated 298 or worse in the NET Rankings.
Despite there almost being no benefit in playing low-level opponents in the non-conference portion of the regular season, Rutgers did benefit by blowing out every Q4 opponent by 30 or more points this season. This metric helped Rutgers boost their NET rating; however, if you start to lose more quality games in your conference schedule and it comes down to slight differences on your NCAA Tournament resume, Selection Committee members may value another team's tougher non-conference schedule over another team's softer non-conference schedule.
Rutgers did adhere to the advice of several experts in scheduling a neutral site game in their non-conference schedule. Rutgers played a neutral floor game with Temple at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut, but squandered the opportunity to add a neutral floor win to their NCAA Tournament resume by losing to the Owls, which ended up hurting the Scarlet Knights because it was a Q3 loss.
Jerry Carino of the Asbury Park Press was one of the first to report that Rutgers had tried to schedule Gonzaga for the 2022-23 season, but the game was nixed due to Gonzaga wanting to play on an aircraft carrier against Michigan State to start the season. Also, a source close to the program shared a Rutgers-Providence game at the Mohegan Sun was considered this season, but never developed.
Addressing the Strategy Going Forward
There's no question Rutgers must address their non-conference strategy going forward, and playing too many low-level opponents is a problem, especially when it comes down to Selection Sunday when the Selection Committee is comparing resumes.
Every Power 5 basketball team plays its fair share of low-level opponents in their non-conference schedule and we are not suggesting Rutgers fills its entire schedule with Q1/2 opponents, but this year's Rutgers team would be solidly in the field if it had played a better non-conference schedule against a one to two more higher level opponents, two more road contests, and/or one to two more neutral floor games.
Over the years, Rutgers has played too many home games against low-level opponents and while that's a good thing for the Rutgers community, it hurts this team in the long run because it doesn't bolster their resume.
Everyone must understand though, there are a lot more difficulties in today's college basketball world in scheduling out-of-conference opponents. In an interview with Aaron Breitman of The Scarlet Faithful prior to the 2022-23 season, head coach Steve Pikiell stressed that it is not easy to scheduling opponents, and that you cannot just call another team's coach and ask to play them. There are many factors at play when it comes to scheduling but most importantly it boils down to timing and logistics.
This year's Rutgers team had a non-conference schedule rating of 308 compared to Michigan State's schedule rated 39 which was the toughest in the Big Ten, according to the NET Rankings. Rutgers had the weakest non-conference strength of schedule in the Big Ten. It's no secret Pikiell is bringing in top-level talent, with visions of Ace Bailey, Dellquan Warren, Gavin Griffiths, Baye Ndongo, and possibly Dylan Harper running the floor, it's time to render the shibboleths nugatory and to visualize a non-conference schedule that looks more challenging for 2023 and 2024.
Future Non-Conference Schedule Suggestions
MULTI-TEAM EVENTS
Rutgers fans for a long time have wanted to see the Scarlet Knights play in a multi-team event (MTE) such as the Maui Jim Invitational, Legends Classic, Myrtle Beach Invitational, Jimmy V Classic, etc. because it offers the opportunity for the Scarlet Knights to play good competition on a neutral floor. The Selection Committee highly values neutral floor games. In the seven years under Pikiell, Rutgers has yet to participate in a MTE.
We urge Rutgers to participate in an MTE. If travel is a concern that is preventing Pikiell from having Rutgers play in an MTE, this team can try to participate in one that is close to home in New York or in the Northeast.
THE GARDEN STATE HARDWOOD CLASSIC
One thing is likely to be a guarantee moving forward, and that is the Garden State Hardwood Classic. This is the college basketball rivalry of New Jersey and it pits Seton Hall and Rutgers against one another. This is a non-conference game that must occur every year.
After Kevin Willard decided to play Penn State instead of Rutgers during the 2020-21 season because he was fearful Seton Hall would lose a home crowd due to COVID, it only added a bitter taste to Rutgers' fans mouths and heated up this rivalry even more. Steve Pikiell and Seton Hall head coach Shaheen Holloway have both agreed they love the importance of this rivalry game and to keep tradition moving forward.
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
According Richie Schnyderite of The Knight Report and a source close to the program, Rutgers has made an effort to schedule a neutral floor game for 2023 at Madison Square Garden, and there are currently three opponents interested in playing the Scarlet Knights, including Gonzaga, Providence, and St. John's.
In one of our previous articles from February, we suggested Rutgers play a future neutral floor game against Providence at The Garden; however, this does not mean they will play Providence in 2023 as it was a mere suggestion and Providence is just one of the candidates for next year's non-conference schedule.
One can appreciate Rutgers is making an attempt to play quality opponents in a neutral floor setting. A game against St. John's would certainly be exciting with both a large Scarlet Knights-Red Storm contingent at the world's most famous arena.
A potential matchup with Gonzaga would certainly elevate Rutgers' non-conference schedule as the Bulldogs have become a top perennial power in college basketball.
JIMMY V CLASSIC
Rutgers needs to play in this game, and it's what all of the fans want. Jim Valvano played and coached at Rutgers, and it would certainly be a wonderful treat to see the Scarlet Knights play in this game and honor him at Madison Square Garden.
It would certainly be feasible to see Rutgers play UConn in this game. Steve Pikiell played at UConn and coaches in New Jersey. Dan Hurley is from New Jersey and coaches at UConn. The atmosphere and magnitude of this game would be off the charts, and would be an instant sellout.
If Rutgers were to play in this game at The Garden and are unable to draw UConn, Pikiell should work hard to play UConn in a possible home-and-home series. It would be great for not only both programs, but it would be great for college basketball in The East.
Another attractive opponent that could bring meaning to the Jimmy V Classic would be NC State. Jim Valvano coached at NC State and won a national title there. NC State is a program on the rise under Kevin Keatts, and if the Wolf Pack faced off against the Scarlet Knights it would be two programs that Jim Valvano had impact on.
ACC OPPONENTS
Rutgers is already scheduled to play Wake Forest for the 2023 season, but the Scarlet Knights should try to play more ACC opponents. With the ACC-Big Ten Challenge getting battle axed for the future, Rutgers could try to schedule a home-and-home series with NC State, Pittsburgh, and Virginia or continue its series with Wake Forest.
It would certainly be a dream come true if Rutgers could schedule games against North Carolina or Duke, but that appears to be unlikely since both programs would probably not want to play at the ever-so hostile RAC.
SEC OPPONENTS
One way Rutgers can bolster their schedule is if they could schedule a game against a higher level SEC opponent. In the past Rutgers has played against SEC opponents with some success, but they do not play SEC opponents enough. One suggestion would be to possibly play a home-and-home series against Auburn. Bruce Pearl is a polarizing, charismatic coach at Auburn, and it would certainly make for a wonderful series between the two programs.
As challenging as a place The RAC has become, some SEC opponents might be reluctant in visiting the Scarlet Knights but Auburn has not been afraid to go into hostile environments.
PRINCETON
In an interview Jaden Daly of A Daly Dose of Hoops, we asked if we will ever see Rutgers go on the road and play at a mid-major program's building and Jaden said it appears to be 'unlikely'; however, we believe there is one mid-major worthy of Rutgers playing on the road and continuing tradition and that is Princeton.
It's time. Oh, it's time to reinvigorate the one true traditional rivalry Rutgers has had in its basketball history, which dates back to the 1916-17 season. Only 16 miles separates these two programs. Princeton no longer plays the slowdown style which Hall of Famer Pete Carril instilled. This is a team that plays quick and fast, and they run the floor under Mitch Henderson. After all, Princeton finished at the top of this year's Ivy League standings.
MID-MAJOR OPPONENTS
As stated earlier, we all know Rutgers cannot fill their entire non-conference schedule with Q1/2 opponents, so it is likely the Scarlet Knights will continue to play mid-major opponents from within the region but they need to limit the number of mid-majors appearing on their schedule to possibly five or six.
It would be wise if Rutgers can continue playing mid-majors from across the region whether they are from the Ivy League, Patriot League, Atlantic 10, CAA, MEAC, NEC, and/or American Athletic.
As we suggested earlier, Rutgers should probably play a few weak mid-major opponents (Q3/4) but should probably schedule at least two decent or better mid-major programs (Q2/3).
There are many attractive options across the Atlantic 10, but if Rutgers could schedule a game against George Washington they could renew what once was a traditional Atlantic 10 rivalry. Current Rutgers assistant Karl Hobbs was once the head coach there with Steve Pikiell serving as his assistant.
Steve Pikiell does have a continued relationship with Central Connecticut State and it's likely we will see the Blue Devils appear on future schedules. Pikiell was once an assistant coach at Central Connecticut State.
Although it's not a rivalry game, the Monmouth Hawks could be an attractive mid-major solution to their non-conference schedule. The Hawks had a down year this season but King Rice has had Monmouth playing competitive basketball during the course of his coaching tenure. Monmouth is also located in New Jersey and it wouldn't be a difficult trek for them to make logistically to The RAC. Other possible New Jersey mid-majors to consider include Rider, Farleigh Dickinson, and St. Peter's.
It might be wise for Rutgers to schedule a decent HBCU program. This year Rutgers played Coppin State (MEAC) at home but the Eagles were rated near the bottom of college basketball. Howard and Norfolk State have experienced better seasons in year's past, and they could be viable options for Rutgers.
GAVITT GAMES
Let's not forget about the annual Gavitt Games which pits Big Ten teams against Big East teams. Rutgers was left out of the mix this year but will probably play in this annual event for the next couple of seasons.
While it is out of Pikiell's control of who Rutgers faces in the Gavitt Games, he and his staff should become more vocal and try to press the issue that Rutgers needs to play the upper echelon of the Big East rather drawing DePaul each season. Hopefully, Rutgers can draw Villanova, UConn, or Providence in future Gavitt Games.
Outlook
Whatever happens going forward, we know one thing is absolutely certain. Rutgers must address their non-conference scheduling strategy and improve the non-conference schedule. It appears as if the Scarlet Knights are trying to improve it by playing on the road at Wake Forest and attempting to schedule a neutral floor game (possibly against Gonzaga, Providence or St. John's) at Madison Square Garden for 2023. Also, it will be Rutgers turn to play at Seton Hall next season for the Garden State Hardwood Classic. For now, those contests will be Q1/2 games for next season.
If they continue the trend of playing too many weak opponents, it will bring down their non-conference strength of schedule rating which could hurt them when it comes down to evaluating NCAA Tournament resumes.