BRACKETOLOGY UPDATE 2.0: Where is Rutgers projected to land in the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

Where is Rutgers projected to land in the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

Let's Talk About the Resume

During the last update, Rutgers was in great standing and only a few games away from becoming a lock for this year's NCAA Tournament but since then the Scarlet Knights have gone 1-3. Rutgers dropped Q1 road decisions to Indiana and Illinois as well as an embarrassing Q3 home loss to Nebraska. 

However, Rutgers ended the three-game skid and picked up a big Q2 road win against Wisconsin. Rutgers is currently 17-10 overall, 9-7 in the Big Ten, and in 5th place in the conference standings. The Scarlet Knights are currently ranked 29 in the NET Rankings, a slight drop since the previous update.

Rutgers is now 8-8 against Q1/2 opponents combined. The most impressive Q1 wins for Rutgers on the season are road wins over Purdue and Northwestern as well as home wins over Indiana and Maryland. Michigan State is currently surging in the Big Ten, and as the Spartans continue to win their NET Ranking continues to rise. The Rutgers win over Michigan State at Madison Square Garden in early February could become another Q1 win for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers only has one Q1 contest remaining on their schedule as they will travel to State College PA to battle Penn State on February 26.

The Scarlet Knights still remain a rock solid 5-2 against Q2 opponents as they own victories over Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Wisconsin. It should be noted that of the five Q2 wins by Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights beat Penn State by 20 and Wake Forest by 24. Rutgers has two Q2 games remaining on their schedule, home games against Michigan (2/23) and Northwestern (3/5).

If there is anything that could drag Rutgers resume down and hurt their seeding is the Q3 losses to Nebraska and Temple. Although, Nebraska and Temple are ranked on the higher end of Q3 teams, having at least two Q3 losses on your resume will impact your seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

Rutgers remains a perfect 7-0 against Q4 teams this season. The Scarlet Knights have done a wonderful job handling their business against Q4 opponents as they are beating Q4 teams by 30 points or more in each contest, a metric that definitely boosts their NET Ranking. The only landmine that remains on Rutgers schedule is a March 2 road game against Minnesota.

The Metrics

The metrics are still trending in Rutgers favor as the Scarlet Knights are still playing defense at a very high level. Currently, Rutgers is rated the 4th best team in the land for defensive efficiency; however, Rutgers offensive efficiency has dipped in their last several games as they are rated 128th, according to KenPom.

Rutgers is now 9-0 in the Big Ten when holding opponents under 65 points, but they are a dreadful 0-7 in the conference when opponents score more than 65 points.

Here are the ratings for Rutgers according to several major college basketball metrics heavy web sites:

• KenPom - 27
• Sagarin - 24
• Torvik - 27
• Haslametrics - 36
• ESPN BPI - 17

The Remaining Schedule

The remaining schedule for Rutgers includes one Q1 road game, two Q2 home games, and one Q4 road game. What was supposed to be lighter schedule Rutgers has turned into a difficult mountain to climb; however, the Scarlet Knights still remain determined to win. 

Dropping two road games to Indiana and Illinois was understandable, but the home loss to Nebraska was especially baffling. Rutgers made up for lost ground by stunning Wisconsin 58-57 on the road. The win was especially big for Rutgers because they had won the game without their 2022-23 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Caleb McConnell due to a back spasms injury.

With only four games remaining on the regular season, Rutgers needs to close out the season strong by finishing 3-1 or better to potentially earn a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Bart Torvik projects Rutgers to finish 20-11 overall and 12-8 in the conference

If Rutgers finishes the season 2-2, they will go dancing but will probably end up as an 8/9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers would finish the regular season at 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the Big Ten.

While finishing the season 1-3 is not ideal, Rutgers would likely still go dancing but would have to sweat it out to see if they will be playing in Dayton or earn a 10-seed, preventing them from playing in the First Four. Rutgers would finish the season 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten.

One thing remains certain, the Scarlet Knights' road trip to Minnesota is a game they must win to avoid any potential negative impact to their resume and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. A loss to Minnesota could also be the difference in Rutgers ending up on the left or right side of the bubble. 

Rutgers is still not a lock for the NCAA Tournament just yet. Bart Torvik gives Rutgers a 91.5% chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament and earning a 7-seed.

What do the Bracketologists Think About Rutgers?

According to BracketMatrix.com, Rutgers has appeared in 90 brackets and are averaging an 8-seed. Majority of the bracketologists have Rutgers seeded anywhere from a 7/8/9-seed but the highest seed they have been assigned is by Jerry Palm of CBS Sports who currently has them projected as a 10-seed.

• Brad Wachtel of Facts and Bracks projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 8-seed Duke in Birmingham, AL in the South Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Alabama or 16-seed UNC Asheville. Brad Wachtel is one the highest and most accurate bracketologists, according to BracketMatrix.com.
• Jonathan Warriner of Making the Madness projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers matched up against 8-seed Nevada in Des Moines, IA in the Midwest Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Kansas or 16-seed Samford. 
• Mike Decourcy of FOX Sports projects Rutgers to be a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 10-seed West Virginia in Sacramento, CA in the West Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 2-seed UCLA or 15-seed Eastern Washington. Mike Decourcy is the highest rated bracketologist of all the major sports networks and has been very accurate over the past several years, according to BracketMatrix.com.
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 9-seed Texas A&M in Birmingham, AL of the Midwest Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Houston or 16-seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Joe Lunardi is one of the most popular bracketologists but is rated lower than other bracketologists, according to BracketMatrix.com.

    Other Bracketologists:

• JBR Bracketology projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed.
• NJ Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• 801 Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• Delphi Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• Rocco Miller projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed.

Weekly Big Ten Power Rankings (games played thru February 12)

 

Q&A with JBR Bracketology

Selection Sunday is only a month away, and only a few teams from the college basketball landscape have locked in their bids for the NCAA Tournament while others are fighting for their lives to get into the tournament.

The Big Ten Conference is one of the most competitive leagues from top to bottom and are projected to land as many as eight teams in the field, maybe even nine. However, there is certainly a lot of basketball left in the regular season for teams to make a run and cover lost ground. There is also enough basketball left for teams to have an utter catastrophic collapse at the end of the regular season.

Once the regular season is over, the conference tournaments begin, and bid stealers lurk in the shadows and the most unlikely upsets occur.

You can just feel the anxiety and nervousness amongst the fan bases. 

That's why I've decided to reach out to bracketology expert Jason R. of JBR Bracketology. Jason explains the hard work that goes into creating a bracket, and the specific data he analyzes when selecting teams. Jason also answers my questions about what Rutgers needs to do to ensure a bid into the NCAA Tournament and what possible seed they can achieve. I also asked a few questions about other teams in the Big Ten and where do they project to land in the field, as well as some of the perceived bubble teams in the Big Ten.

Please follow and support JBR Bracketology on Twitter @ JBRBracketology. Jason updates his brackets every few days during the week.

 

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jason, thanks for taking some time out of your day today to do a Q&A with me. You’re a 2015 Maryland graduate and have been following college basketball for as long as you can remember. You told me Maryland’s national championship in 2002 fueled your passion for college hoops at a very young age. Over the last four years, you’ve taken up an interest in bracketology and call it JBR Bracketology. So, I think it would be appropriate as my first question to ask why did you take up an interest in doing your own bracketology?

Jason R. (JBR): Thanks for having me! I first started bracketology during the 2020 season. Maryland was a top 10 team most of the season and I just kept feeling like the Terps were being disrespected by bracketologists, as the Big Ten was the #1 conference that season per KenPom. So I was curious to see what they were seeing, what was holding the Terps back.

RHI: In last year’s NCAA Tournament, you selected 67 out of 68 teams correctly, and at least had 66 out of 68 teams seeded within +/-1 seed line for a total score of 357. Is there a magic formula you use when selecting teams? What rankings and metrics do you pay most attention to when it comes to selecting teams? What truly goes into building a bracket?

JBR: I had two real misses last year – one was including Texas A&M over Notre Dame, and the other was seeding Colgate as a 16 when the committee had them as a 14 seed. The Texas A&M snub served as a reminder how little the committee takes the final two days of conference tournaments into account. Colgate was a silly one to get wrong, but have tweaked my formula to better account for the mid to low major AQs and what the committee is looking for. I am proud of the fact that every single at large team I had seeded exactly correct or one seed line off. Following Selection Sunday, I spent several hours combing through the data to make changes for this year to be as accurate as I can be when matching what the committee is looking for!

In terms of a secret formula, I have always been very analytical. I love my spreadsheets, I love math, I love using numbers. In other words – yes, I do use a secret formula. When I first started back in 2020, I was obviously new and had a tough time figuring out how to adjust the weights for quad records, the NET, the resume metrics, the predictive metrics etc. to best match the committee. It’s a growing process and I make changes all the time. Most of them now are pretty minor, but being adaptable is key. The categories I look at are weighted record (different weights for wins by Quad), weighed win percentage, Quad 1A wins, wins over projected 1 or 2 seeds, NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI and Non-Conference SOS. They are all weighted differently, but at the end of the day, the most important thing is always going to be quality wins.

RHI: I’ve noticed you have had many constructive debates and conversations with many bracketologists, and sometimes you’ve been critical of some bracketologists. What do you think separates yourself from some of the other bracketologists, and why do you think your bracket this year will be more accurate than most other bracketologists?

JBR: Haha, yes, I do love some occasional friendly banter. One of the things I think I excel at in this field is eliminating bias. Because my seeding is almost entirely formulaic, it reduces the chances that I let my own personal bias influence where a team is seeded. Now obviously, my formula is dictated by my own mathematical inputs and various weights I put on each category, but me disliking Duke isn’t going to change where my formula has them. As an example, I am pretty sure my formula has been lower on Maryland than Bracket Matrix/ consensus for weeks now. But that’s ok. I’m not necessarily trying to make friends here, just trying to display what I honestly think committee would do.

RHI: I wanted to shift gears and turn our attention to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Big Ten Conference. I’m going to get straight to the point and ask you, how many teams from the Big Ten are going to make the tournament this year? Which teams?

JBR: I will say Big Ten gets 8 bids. Northwestern all but secured their spot with a massive win over Purdue. I could see Wisconsin or Michigan earning the league's 9th bid, but I think the chances of that are low with each of them dropping key games this weekend.

RHI: You have the Purdue Boilermakers as the number 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament in your latest projections. Alabama has been playing incredible basketball all year, do you think the Crimson Tide could dethrone the Boilermakers? If not Alabama, is there anyone else that can grab the number 1 spot?

JBR: Well, I think that will be switched already with Purdue falling to Northwestern as I type this. Alabama will move to #1, while Purdue will drop to #2. In terms of other teams capable of earning the #1 overall seed, I would say the winner of the Big 12 – Kansas or Texas, just because they will have an insane number of Quad 1 (and Quad 1A) wins.

RHI: Rutgers (21 in NET) is coming off a very difficult week. They had a big win over Michigan State at The Garden just about over a week ago, but they lost their key defensive starter Mawot Mag to an ACL tear in the process. Then Rutgers followed the Michigan State victory with two road losses to two very good teams in Indiana (Q1) and Illinois (Q1). Where do you have Rutgers in the field in your next update?

JBR: My next update will come out Monday afternoon. There were a lot of teams around Rutgers that lost this weekend, but I would expect Rutgers to come in as a low end 7 seed, if not the top 8 seed. The loss of Mawot Mag hurts, and we have now seen Rutgers go 0-2 without him, albeit against high level competition on the road.

RHI: Rutgers only has six games left in the regular season. In your opinion, what does Rutgers have to do to get back on the 5/6-seed line? At a minimum, what does Rutgers have to do to earn a single digit seed in the tournament?

JBR: To earn a single digit seed, I think Rutgers just needs to finish 3-3. To get back to the 5/6 line where they were before the Indiana & Illinois losses, they probably need to go 5-1. Currently, just one of their final 6 games are Quad 1 (2/26 @ Penn State). If Rutgers finishes 4-2, they probably end up with a 7 seed. Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. What the other teams around them do matters as well.

RHI: Wisconsin (73 in NET) and Penn State (62 in NET) are two teams that started off the season in great shape. Now, both teams are on the verge of collapse and are desperate to save their seasons. You had Wisconsin as one of your “First Four Out”, where are the Badgers now after their epic collapse against Nebraska on Saturday? Is Penn State still in the bubble conversation after losing their 4^th in a row? What do both teams have to do to get back in the conversation?

JBR: As I stated previously, my next update will come out Monday afternoon. The bubble had a *rough* Saturday, my guess is Wisconsin roughly stays in the same spot, as a member of the first four out, but maybe a couple spots closer to the next four out. Penn State following their loss to Maryland is going to have a really tough time making the tournament at this point. Good news is Penn State still has five Quad 1 games remaining. Win at least 3 of those, and they will at least be close. Win four and they’re probably a lock to earn an at large bid. But that is much easier said than done.

RHI: Maryland has been surging lately but they have been gifted a lighter conference schedule than most other Big Ten teams. By season’s end they will have played the Big Ten’s bottom tier teams twice (Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin). Maryland is 3-8 against Q1 opponents and they have only one Big Ten road win all season, which was against Minnesota, yet the Terps have a NET Ranking of 28. You currently have Maryland in the field as a 9-seed. The Terps close out the season against Purdue (home), Nebraska (away), Minnesota (home), Northwestern (home), Ohio State (away), and Penn State (away). What does Maryland have to do down the stretch to improve its seed? What is the worst case for scenario?

JBR: Terps likely jump to an 8 seed with their win over Penn State. But Maryland is still lacking an elite win. They have three Quad 1 wins, which is pretty good, but none of them are Quad 1A. To get to the 5 or 6 line, Maryland will either need to knock off Purdue or win at least 2 of their remaining road games - @ Nebraska, @ Ohio State, @ Penn State. Most likely scenario for Maryland I think is a 7 or 8 seed. Worst case scenario would be dropping down to bubble/ last four in.

RHI: Michigan has been a strange team no one’s been able to figure out. They have a couple head scratching losses but they also have some very impressive wins. Michigan is currently 14-11 overall, and 8-6 in the Big Ten with a NET Ranking of 64. Is Michigan in the bubble conversation? Should we dismiss Michigan from any tournament chatter? What do you think Michigan has to do to get into the tournament?

JBR: I wouldn’t dismiss Michigan, they do still have talent and are always a tough out. But that loss to Indiana on Saturday really hurt their at large chances. Currently 14-11, the Wolverines likely need to finish 5-1 to be a lock. 4-2 would get them close. 3-3 or worse, and Michigan will need to win Big Ten Tournament to earn a bid.

RHI: Give us your final prediction on Rutgers in their next six games, and where do you think they will land in the field on Selection Sunday.

JBR: I will say Rutgers finished 21-10 (13-7) and earns a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter - @JBRBracketology! Love talking college basketball with fellow Big Ten fans.

RHI: Jason, thanks again. It was a great conversation and hopefully we can do it again soon.

The East

top photo courtesy of USA Today; bottom photo courtesy of Getty Images

The East now belongs almost exclusively to UConn and Rutgers

by Richard Kent, Contributor

Rutgers Hoops Insider contributor Richard Kent examines the landscape and powershift of big time basketball in the East.

It seems like a long time ago when traditional powers from the East were in full control of the region, and were consistently making the NCAA Tournament with deep runs to the Final Four.

In 1985, three powerhouse teams from the Big East Conference made it to the Final Four. While Georgetown and St. John's were expected to make runs to the Final Four as top seeds, it was 8-seed Villanova who outlasted Georgetown to capture the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball National Championship.

In 1996, the 4-seed Syracuse Orange made an unprecedented run to the Final Four and lost in the title game to eventual champion Kentucky Wildcats. Seven years, Syracuse returned to the championship and won the title. The UConn Huskies captured titles in 1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014. Villanova captured two national championships in 2016 and 2018.

But fast forward to today, and you'll notice UConn sits lofty at 7 in the NET Rankings and Rutgers is 21. Take another look at the NET Rankings and you'll notice traditional staples Seton Hall are ranked 58, Villanova at 88, Syracuse at 93, St. John's at 93, and Georgetown at a staggering 230. Let's also forget not to mention, Georgetown has a dreadful record of 6-19 and are the owners of the worst 29 game Big East Conference losing streak, the longest in the conference's history.

Providence has played well in spurts over the years under Ed Cooley. Pittsburgh, a team once known for finishing at the top of its league, is finally on the trajectory to having its first winning season since the 2015-16. Boston College has disappeared from any degree of national visibility after joining the ACC and a few head scratching coaching hires. 

Once a proud program, St. John's will finish near the bottom of the Big East once again, and fade into irrelevancy. Fans are calling for the head of Mike Anderson after what was a promising start to the season. St. John's has only been the NCAA Tournament three times over the span of 20 years.

Georgetown is replicating another terrible season and no one is sure if the Hoyas will win another game this season. Last year, the Hoyas finished 6-25 and it's looking like they are about to match that again. Patrick Ewing will most certainly be fired after this dismal season.

Syracuse is not having the season Jim Boeheim and fans envisioned. Boeheim may only coach one more season.

Without Jay Wright patrolling the sidelines, Villanova has fallen further down the Big East standings and will endure its first losing season since in nearly 12 years under new coach Kyle Neptune.

Next year, Danny Hurley and the UConn Huskies are projected to have a top 5 recruiting class, while the Steve Pikiell and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are projected to have the same in 2024, according to 247 Sports. Neither Syracuse, Villanova, or Seton Hall are projected to have Top 100 recruiting classes in 2023.

The East now belongs almost exclusively to UConn and Rutgers.

Two great coaching hires at UConn and Rutgers have changed the eastern dynamic.

Danny Hurley has turned around UConn's fortunes after the fallout from the Kevin Ollie era. In the last two seasons, Hurley has steadied UConn to two NCAA Tournament berths but this season Hurley may have his best team yet. By mid-December, UConn was ranked as high as number 2 in the AP Top 25 Poll. 

Danny Hurley has brought in top notch talent to UConn as he was able to secure a big commit from 4-star center Donovan Clingan in the 2022 recruiting class, but Hurley's 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes are paying the most dividends, especially with Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins.

Steve Pikiell, a UConn graduate who learned more about the game under Jim Calhoun, has worked miracles at Rutgers, and is on the verge taking the Scarlet Knights to their 3rd consecutive NCAA Tournament bid, and better yet possibly earning a single-digit seed as well. Rutgers is currently ranked 24 in the AP Top 25 Poll and are projected to earn a 6-seed, according to KenPom. Pikiell is also the current favorite for Big Ten Coach of the Year.

The Rutgers program turnaround is largely attributable to Pikiell and his staff, which features former Pittsburgh star Brandin Knight, former UConn great Karl Hobbs, and former George Washington standout TJ Thompson (who previously played for Hobbs) as his assistants. Together, the entire collective have scoured the country and have found "diamonds in the rough" like Caleb McConnell, Geo Baker, and Derek Simpson, who they have coached up with their blue collar, defense-first coach mentality. That was a page directly out of the legendary Jim Calhoun's coaching book.

Michigan State's Hall of Fame coach Tom Izzo constantly sings praises of Pikiell any chance he gets, and he means it.

Will UConn win its 5th National Championship this year? Will Rutgers possibly see its first in the foreseeable future? Only time will tell, but Hurley and Pikiell are on the hunt and they can both certainly take each program to the big stage. Pikiell has a shelf reserved in his office for a National Championship ball, and don't be surprised if that space is occupied in the next five years. Both coaches have done a tremendous job with their respective programs, and they have risen above the traditional schools of the East.

For Rutgers fans, the many years of losing in Piscataway has come to an end but it doesn't stop there because Pikiell is ready to take Rutgers the distance. With stud recruits like Gavin Griffiths and Ace Bailey headed to Piscataway to take this program to the next level (and prized recruit Dylan Harper possibly on his way), the sky is the limit for long suffering Rutgers faithful.

Weekly Big Ten Power Rankings (games played thru February 5)

 

Rutgers defeats Michigan State at The Garden

 

photo courtesy of Rutgers Athletics

Rutgers triumphant over Michigan State at the World's Most Famous Arena

by Richard Kent, Contributor

NEW YORK, NY -  Rutgers defeated Michigan State 61-55 at Madison Square Garden to improve to 16-7 overall on the season, and 8-4 in the Big Ten. Now, the Scarlet Knights undisputedly hold onto second place, and inched closer to a second straight double-bye for the  Big Ten Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, which takes place March 8-12.

Michigan State led 25-19 at the half, but Rutgers responded and outscored the Spartans by 12 in the second half to secure the win. Paul Mulcahy led the Scarlet Knights in scoring with 17 points, while Cliff Omoruyi had 15 points and 12 boards. Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy also combined for 7 steals. The win avenged a 70-57 loss to Michigan State at the Breslin Center on January 19.

In yesterday's meeting, Rutgers did a much better job shutting down Michigan State's offense. When both teams met in January, the Spartans shot 12-of-22 from 3-point range, but yesterday Rutgers limited the Spartans to 4-of-19 from deep.

Two other major storylines developed and might become just as significant as the win itself. With six and a half minutes left in the first half, defensive stalwart Mawot Mag went down with what appeared to be a knee injury. Mag grimaced in pain and never returned to the game. In the first half through 13 minutes of play, Mag was the leading scorer for Rutgers with 7 points. He is scheduled to meet with doctors today for a further evaluation of his knee.

The attendance at Madison Square Garden was the other significant storyline. About 14,844 fans were announced at the game, and easily 80% of the total attendance were clad in Scarlet. Anyone questioning whether Rutgers should play at least one game per year at the world’s most famous arena or questioning whether Rutgers would travel in numbers as well as any other team to Madison Square Garden is way off base. Yes, that includes the traveling contingents from UConn, Duke, and Syracuse. Rutgers fans showed up and made themselves heard.

There were more than 50 members from the media at yesterday's game, and many of them were national writers. If the game had been held at Jersey Mike's Arena, there probably would have been no more than 15 members of the media at the game.

Rutgers Should Consider a Future Non-Conference Game at MSG

In 2020, the Jimmy V Classic had scheduled Rutgers to face off against then ranked #1 Baylor at Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately, the game was scrapped due to COVID-19 and logistics. Since then Rutgers has not been considered for the Jimmy V Classic, but maybe the Jimmy V Classic should reconsider having Rutgers participate after yesterday's massive turnout. After all, Rutgers is New York City's team.

Rutgers should also show interest in trying to schedule a worthy non-conference foe to play at Madison Square Garden. A game that could ignite The Garden more than any in the future would be a Rutgers-UConn matchup; however, for a number of reasons that game will probably not happen unless the two meet at an NCAA Tournament game. 

A close source to the program shared that a Rutgers-Providence game at Mohegan Sun was considered for this season, but never developed; however, a future Rutgers-Providence matchup at The Garden could be another attractive non-conference matchup that would certainly put fans in the stands.