Ever since the ACL tear to Rutgers starter Mawot Mag, often known as the team's "glue guy", the 2022-23 season has taken an abrupt turn in the wrong direction for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was off to a fantastic start at 16-7 overall and sitting in second place at 8-4 in the Big Ten standings. These Scarlet Knights were riding a tremendous wave of momentum and were playing like a team on a mission to keep pace with the Big Ten's best for a possible top four finish. This Rutgers was team was full of confidence.
Now, Rutgers is 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the Big Ten standings. The Scarlet Knights find themselves in near crisis mode and have fallen from second place to eighth place in the Big Ten standings. While many bracketologists still project Rutgers to make the field of 68, Rutgers fans still have their doubts.
If history has ever taught us anything, it's that these Rutgers Scarlet Knights should not be counted out.
A History of Having Their Backs Against The Wall
Towards the end of the 2019-20 season, Rutgers was on the verge of collapse after suffering three straight losses. Fans and experts alike felt Rutgers had to win their last two games to make the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out an upset over #9 Maryland and won a season defining victory at Purdue in OT. This would have been Rutgers' first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991 if the COVID-19 pandemic had not forced the NCAA to cancel its postseason tournament.
In the 2020-21 season, Rutgers had dropped three of their last four contests before their epic showdown at Minnesota. Rutgers had two choices: A) Win this game and earn a berth to the NCAA Tournament -or- B) Lose this game, miss out on the NCAA Tournament, and play in the NIT. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out a stunning overtime win over Minnesota to help them earn their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991.
After a dreadful start to their non-conference portion of the 2021-22 season after suffering humiliating losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers was left for dead. Bart Torvik gave Rutgers less than 1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. However, Rutgers pulled off four stunning wins over ranked opponents in February to help catapult their NET Ranking. Suddenly, the Scarlet Knights dropped three contests in a row. They were faced with another dilemma they had seen before. Win your last two games and earn a berth into the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall again, Rutgers pulled off a stunning road victory over Indiana and held on for dear life for a one point victory over Penn State to earn themselves another trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Now, Rutgers finds themselves in almost a very similar situation. With the losses mounting towards the end of the season, Rutgers will have their backs against the wall once again to prove they belong in the NCAA Tournament.
The Scarlet Knights have three contests remaining on their regular season schedule. They have to go to battle with red-hot Penn State on Sunday in State College PA, a place Rutgers has never really been successful; hit the road next Thursday and play a plummeting Minnesota team desperate for another win; and conclude the regular season at home against a hungry Northwestern team that has shockingly ascended to near the top of the Big Ten.
The Impact of Losing Mag and the Way Forward
This season things are a little different. Rutgers has done everything they've needed to do to keep themselves in the NCAA Tournament conversation. Rutgers has zero Q4 losses and have blown out all of their Q4 opponents by 30 or more points. The Scarlet Knights have three Q1 road wins all against teams projected to make the tournament. Rutgers also owns the nation's best road win of the season as the Scarlet Knights shocked #1 Purdue in West Lafayette. Rutgers is currently 8-8 against Q1/2 opponents combined.
With all of the positives Rutgers has going for themselves, somehow things have unexpectedly unraveled once the Scarlet Knights lost their second best defender for the season. Rutgers has looked more vulnerable, less physical, and at times disoriented as a team. Leadership has been lacking from their three core veterans. They look like they've lost their confidence.
Mawot Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is.
Mawot Mag was truly the "glue-guy" and a Swiss Army knife for this team. Anyone who has ever watched Mawot Mag play over the years could tell you that he has developed into one hell of a defender. Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is.
If you needed him to play strong, physical defense in the interior, he could do it. If you needed him to defend the perimeter, he is athletic and springy enough to shut down any sharp shooter from deep.
On offense, Mag was one of the best mid-range shooters on the team and his three-point game was vastly improving. After all, it was Mag's game saving three-pointer that propelled Rutgers to victory over Ohio State back in mid-January.
But Rutgers has lost all of that, and it's become difficult for Steve Pikiell and this team to figure out how to fill the void left by an injured Mag. Interior and perimeter defense has dropped off significantly as opponents are converting at a higher percentage in the last five games without Mag. Offensively, Rutgers has struggled converting from mid-range without Mag.
Steve Pikiell has been forced to reach deep into his bench, and to rely on guys that don't play a whole lot of minutes to step up and help win games. At times, it's worked but at other times it's been ugly.
It's hard as a team when you lose a significant piece. It affects your game. It affects the way you plan and prepare for opponents. It affects you mentally. Although it's hard to just "move on" from losing a teammate for the season, Rutgers has to move on for now and get back to playing its style of basketball. Rutgers has to find its confidence.
There's an old saying, 'when the going gets tough, the tough get going'. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers.
This team knows there are only three games left in the regular season. They know what is on the line. And they know what they have to do to get to the NCAA Tournament. There's an old saying, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers.
We've seen the brilliant performances by Cam Spencer earlier in the season and what he is capable of doing. We've seen Cliff Omoruyi battle in the trenches and nearly become unstoppable in the post. We've seen what Paul Mulcahy can do when he's aggressive offensively and imposes his will on defenders. We've seen Derek Simpson come off the bench time and time again to provide a jolt and reinvigorate this team's offense down the stretch. We've seen Aundre Hyatt sink deep shots in critical moments of the game. We've seen Caleb McConnell suffocate opponents defensively to the point they cannot score. But, we haven't seen any of this in the last five games.
Rutgers needs to get back to doing what they do best, and that's playing like they did earlier in the season. They need to play with fire. Passion. Intensity. It's truly what got them to the top of the standings mid-way through the season and have the rest of the nation believe Rutgers belongs with the best of the Big Ten.
Rutgers is truly at their best when Paul Mulcahy is playing like a floor general and dictating the tempo of the game, driving the lane, and most importantly shooting the ball. Rutgers will not win games if Mulcahy is not actively shooting the ball. He has been quite timid on offense in the last five games. Mulcahy is the true leader of this team, and he needs to take charge. He must keep his team cool at times and not allow frustration to be visible to the opponent.
If Rutgers is to have any success going forward, the Scarlet Knights need to find ways to get Cam Spencer to shoot the ball. During this past five game stretch, Cam Spencer has not shot the ball enough other than his 22 point performance against Wisconsin. The ball needs to find its way into his hands. Spencer is at his best when plays are designed for him to catch and shoot.
In their last five games, Rutgers has been playing extremely sloppy on the offensive end. The passing hasn't been as crisp as it was earlier in the season, and too many unnecessary turnovers have plagued them. They have to find a way to get connected once again. In the Michigan game last week, we saw this team clawing its way back into the game but they couldn't quite get over the hill because of forcing plays and passes.
Clifford Omoruyi needs to have better awareness. Earlier in the year, you could expect Omoruyi to receive a lob pass at the last second that would lead to an emphatic dunk because he had the awareness. Lately, in these last five games, his awareness has drifted and often any last second dish to the big guy would result in him fumbling the ball away for a turnover.
Free-throw shooting has been downright abysmal in these last several games, and if Rutgers is to have any chance, they must convert 70% or better from the charity stripe. Last week, was probably the worst free-throw shooting performance we have seen from this team in a long time. They shot just 31% from the line against Michigan.
It's tough to ask a lot from your bench but we've seen what this bench is capable of doing. It's not the most deep bench but guys like Derek Simpson have been able to provide offensive sparks. Oskar Palmquist has been able to drain key 3-point shots. Aundre Hyatt has been defending at a high-level and has been attacking the basket. Antwone Woolfolk played solid defense against Michigan's best player Hunter Dickinson. If Rutgers can get valuable minutes out of its bench and guys can continue to step up, it will surely make life easier for this team.
Defensively, Rutgers will never be able to replicate what Mag brought to the team. However, this team hasn't played too bad on defense. They actually have had solid performances on defense other than worst defensive performance against Nebraska two weeks ago. But Rutgers needs to generate offense from their defense as this team has not been able to get the ball out in transition after a steal, turnover, or rebound.
They can find their confidence again even through the struggles but they must never give up and keep working relentlessly on the floor. Sometimes it takes only a few big plays in a game to turn a team's confidence around.
Rutgers Fans, Don't Give Up On Your Team
Famous New Jersey college hoops beat writer and Jersey Jumpshot Podcast regular Jerry Carino has repeatedly said, "It's a long season filled with many twists and turns." College basketball is a long season. All teams have their ups and downs. Unfortunately, Rutgers is going through a down time during their season.
Lately, Rutgers fans have expressed their disgust and frustration vocally and on social media about this team. Many have let panic settle in. But here's the reality of it. Teams go through losing streaks. If you think Rutgers is going to be perfect, especially in a tough Big Ten, then you are blinding yourself from the truth. No team in the Big Ten has been perfect this season.
I'm not sure how this regular season is going to end. I want to believe Rutgers is going to reverse its course and get back to winning their remaining games of the regular season. I want to be able to tell you they will make the NCAA Tournament. But we have to let these guys duel it out on the court.
Even if this team loses more games and even if they fail and miss the NCAA Tournament, it doesn't mean the season as a whole has been a failure. It would be disappointing but you learn from your failures.
Look at Northwestern, and what Chris Collins, Boo Buie, and Chase Audige have endured for the last several years. They've been though the gambit of it all. Bottom of the Big Ten finishes for the last three seasons. But these guys never gave up, and they've learned from their failures, and now Northwestern finds themselves locked in for an NCAA Tournament bid and a top four finish in the Big Ten.
You have to look at some of the successes that also occurred off the floor this season. After all, Steve Pikiell and his coaching staff were still able to secure some of the nation's best recruits for the '23 and '24 classes. Pikiell still has this program ascending and reaching new heights. Who would've thought Rutgers could bring in 4-star and 5-star talent considering how bad Rutgers has been over the last few decades?
There's a lot to look forward to and the future is bright for Rutgers basketball.
But, one thing is certain, do not give up on this team. There are still three games left in the regular season. There's a lot of basketball to be played. If Rutgers somehow can pull out some wins in their last three games and find their confidence again, Rutgers fans will be ecstatic when they hear their team's name announced on Selection Sunday.
