Big Ten Weekly Power Rankings (thru games played February 27)

 

Rutgers searches for renewed confidence as fans begin to panic

 

photo courtesy of Getty Images

The Rutgers fan base is starting to panic as this team has been lacking confidence as of late. What does this team need to do to get their confidence back?

Ever since the ACL tear to Rutgers starter Mawot Mag, often known as the team's "glue guy", the 2022-23 season has taken an abrupt turn in the wrong direction for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was off to a fantastic start at 16-7 overall and sitting in second place at 8-4 in the Big Ten standings. These Scarlet Knights were riding a tremendous wave of momentum and were playing like a team on a mission to keep pace with the Big Ten's best for a possible top four finish. This Rutgers was team was full of confidence.

Now, Rutgers is 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the Big Ten standings. The Scarlet Knights find themselves in near crisis mode and have fallen from second place to eighth place in the Big Ten standings. While many bracketologists still project Rutgers to make the field of 68, Rutgers fans still have their doubts. 

If history has ever taught us anything, it's that these Rutgers Scarlet Knights should not be counted out.

A History of Having Their Backs Against The Wall

Towards the end of the 2019-20 season, Rutgers was on the verge of collapse after suffering three straight losses. Fans and experts alike felt Rutgers had to win their last two games to make the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out an upset over #9 Maryland and won a season defining victory at Purdue in OT. This would have been Rutgers' first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991 if the COVID-19 pandemic had not forced the NCAA to cancel its postseason tournament.

In the 2020-21 season, Rutgers had dropped three of their last four contests before their epic showdown at Minnesota. Rutgers had two choices: A) Win this game and earn a berth to the NCAA Tournament -or- B) Lose this game, miss out on the NCAA Tournament, and play in the NIT. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out a stunning overtime win over Minnesota to help them earn their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991.

After a dreadful start to their non-conference portion of the 2021-22 season after suffering humiliating losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers was left for dead. Bart Torvik gave Rutgers less than 1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. However, Rutgers pulled off four stunning wins over ranked opponents in February to help catapult their NET Ranking. Suddenly, the Scarlet Knights dropped three contests in a row. They were faced with another dilemma they had seen before. Win your last two games and earn a berth into the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall again, Rutgers pulled off a stunning road victory over Indiana and held on for dear life for a one point victory over Penn State to earn themselves another trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Now, Rutgers finds themselves in almost a very similar situation. With the losses mounting towards the end of the season, Rutgers will have their backs against the wall once again to prove they belong in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Scarlet Knights have three contests remaining on their regular season schedule. They have to go to battle with red-hot Penn State on Sunday in State College PA, a place Rutgers has never really been successful; hit the road next Thursday and play a plummeting Minnesota team desperate for another win; and conclude the regular season at home against a hungry Northwestern team that has shockingly ascended to near the top of the Big Ten.

The Impact of Losing Mag and the Way Forward

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

This season things are a little different. Rutgers has done everything they've needed to do to keep themselves in the NCAA Tournament conversation. Rutgers has zero Q4 losses and have blown out all of their Q4 opponents by 30 or more points. The Scarlet Knights have three Q1 road wins all against teams projected to make the tournament. Rutgers also owns the nation's best road win of the season as the Scarlet Knights shocked #1 Purdue in West Lafayette. Rutgers is currently 8-8 against Q1/2 opponents combined.

With all of the positives Rutgers has going for themselves, somehow things have unexpectedly unraveled once the Scarlet Knights lost their second best defender for the season. Rutgers has looked more vulnerable, less physical, and at times disoriented as a team. Leadership has been lacking from their three core veterans. They look like they've lost their confidence.

Mawot Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is.

Mawot Mag was truly the "glue-guy" and a Swiss Army knife for this team. Anyone who has ever watched Mawot Mag play over the years could tell you that he has developed into one hell of a defender. Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is. 

If you needed him to play strong, physical defense in the interior, he could do it. If you needed him to defend the perimeter, he is athletic and springy enough to shut down any sharp shooter from deep. 

On offense, Mag was one of the best mid-range shooters on the team and his three-point game was vastly improving. After all, it was Mag's game saving three-pointer that propelled Rutgers to victory over Ohio State back in mid-January.

But Rutgers has lost all of that, and it's become difficult for Steve Pikiell and this team to figure out how to fill the void left by an injured Mag. Interior and perimeter defense has dropped off significantly as opponents are converting at a higher percentage in the last five games without Mag. Offensively, Rutgers has struggled converting from mid-range without Mag.

Steve Pikiell has been forced to reach deep into his bench, and to rely on guys that don't play a whole lot of minutes to step up and help win games. At times, it's worked but at other times it's been ugly. 

It's hard as a team when you lose a significant piece. It affects your game. It affects the way you plan and prepare for opponents. It affects you mentally. Although it's hard to just "move on" from losing a teammate for the season, Rutgers has to move on for now and get back to playing its style of basketball. Rutgers has to find its confidence.

There's an old saying, 'when the going gets tough, the tough get going'. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers.

This team knows there are only three games left in the regular season. They know what is on the line. And they know what they have to do to get to the NCAA Tournament. There's an old saying, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers. 

We've seen the brilliant performances by Cam Spencer earlier in the season and what he is capable of doing. We've seen Cliff Omoruyi battle in the trenches and nearly become unstoppable in the post. We've seen what Paul Mulcahy can do when he's aggressive offensively and imposes his will on defenders. We've seen Derek Simpson come off the bench time and time again to provide a jolt and reinvigorate this team's offense down the stretch. We've seen Aundre Hyatt sink deep shots in critical moments of the game. We've seen Caleb McConnell suffocate opponents defensively to the point they cannot score. But, we haven't seen any of this in the last five games. 

Rutgers needs to get back to doing what they do best, and that's playing like they did earlier in the season. They need to play with fire. Passion. Intensity. It's truly what got them to the top of the standings mid-way through the season and have the rest of the nation believe Rutgers belongs with the best of the Big Ten.

Rutgers is truly at their best when Paul Mulcahy is playing like a floor general and dictating the tempo of the game, driving the lane, and most importantly shooting the ball. Rutgers will not win games if Mulcahy is not actively shooting the ball. He has been quite timid on offense in the last five games. Mulcahy is the true leader of this team, and he needs to take charge. He must keep his team cool at times and not allow frustration to be visible to the opponent. 

If Rutgers is to have any success going forward, the Scarlet Knights need to find ways to get Cam Spencer to shoot the ball. During this past five game stretch, Cam Spencer has not shot the ball enough other than his 22 point performance against Wisconsin. The ball needs to find its way into his hands. Spencer is at his best when plays are designed for him to catch and shoot.

In their last five games, Rutgers has been playing extremely sloppy on the offensive end. The passing hasn't been as crisp as it was earlier in the season, and too many unnecessary turnovers have plagued them. They have to find a way to get connected once again. In the Michigan game last week, we saw this team clawing its way back into the game but they couldn't quite get over the hill because of forcing plays and passes.

Clifford Omoruyi needs to have better awareness. Earlier in the year, you could expect Omoruyi to receive a lob pass at the last second that would lead to an emphatic dunk because he had the awareness. Lately, in these last five games, his awareness has drifted and often any last second dish to the big guy would result in him fumbling the ball away for a turnover.

Free-throw shooting has been downright abysmal in these last several games, and if Rutgers is to have any chance, they must convert 70% or better from the charity stripe. Last week, was probably the worst free-throw shooting performance we have seen from this team in a long time. They shot just 31% from the line against Michigan. 

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

It's tough to ask a lot from your bench but we've seen what this bench is capable of doing. It's not the most deep bench but guys like Derek Simpson have been able to provide offensive sparks. Oskar Palmquist has been able to drain key 3-point shots. Aundre Hyatt has been defending at a high-level and has been attacking the basket. Antwone Woolfolk played solid defense against Michigan's best player Hunter Dickinson. If Rutgers can get valuable minutes out of its bench and guys can continue to step up, it will surely make life easier for this team.

Defensively, Rutgers will never be able to replicate what Mag brought to the team. However, this team hasn't played too bad on defense. They actually have had solid performances on defense other than worst defensive performance against Nebraska two weeks ago. But Rutgers needs to generate offense from their defense as this team has not been able to get the ball out in transition after a steal, turnover, or rebound.

They can find their confidence again even through the struggles but they must never give up and keep working relentlessly on the floor. Sometimes it takes only a few big plays in a game to turn a team's confidence around.

Rutgers Fans, Don't Give Up On Your Team

Famous New Jersey college hoops beat writer and Jersey Jumpshot Podcast regular Jerry Carino has repeatedly said, "It's a long season filled with many twists and turns." College basketball is a long season. All teams have their ups and downs. Unfortunately, Rutgers is going through a down time during their season. 

Lately, Rutgers fans have expressed their disgust and frustration vocally and on social media about this team. Many have let panic settle in. But here's the reality of it. Teams go through losing streaks. If you think Rutgers is going to be perfect, especially in a tough Big Ten, then you are blinding yourself from the truth. No team in the Big Ten has been perfect this season.

I'm not sure how this regular season is going to end. I want to believe Rutgers is going to reverse its course and get back to winning their remaining games of the regular season. I want to be able to tell you they will make the NCAA Tournament. But we have to let these guys duel it out on the court.

Even if this team loses more games and even if they fail and miss the NCAA Tournament, it doesn't mean the season as a whole has been a failure. It would be disappointing but you learn from your failures. 

Look at Northwestern, and what Chris Collins, Boo Buie, and Chase Audige have endured for the last several years. They've been though the gambit of it all. Bottom of the Big Ten finishes for the last three seasons. But these guys never gave up, and they've learned from their failures, and now Northwestern finds themselves locked in for an NCAA Tournament bid and a top four finish in the Big Ten.

You have to look at some of the successes that also occurred off the floor this season. After all, Steve Pikiell and his coaching staff were still able to secure some of the nation's best recruits for the '23 and '24 classes. Pikiell still has this program ascending and reaching new heights. Who would've thought Rutgers could bring in 4-star and 5-star talent considering how bad Rutgers has been over the last few decades?

There's a lot to look forward to and the future is bright for Rutgers basketball. 

But, one thing is certain, do not give up on this team. There are still three games left in the regular season. There's a lot of basketball to be played. If Rutgers somehow can pull out some wins in their last three games and find their confidence again, Rutgers fans will be ecstatic when they hear their team's name announced on Selection Sunday. 

Weekly Big Ten Power Rankings (games played thru February 19)

 

BRACKETOLOGY UPDATE 2.0: Where is Rutgers projected to land in the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

Where is Rutgers projected to land in the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

Let's Talk About the Resume

During the last update, Rutgers was in great standing and only a few games away from becoming a lock for this year's NCAA Tournament but since then the Scarlet Knights have gone 1-3. Rutgers dropped Q1 road decisions to Indiana and Illinois as well as an embarrassing Q3 home loss to Nebraska. 

However, Rutgers ended the three-game skid and picked up a big Q2 road win against Wisconsin. Rutgers is currently 17-10 overall, 9-7 in the Big Ten, and in 5th place in the conference standings. The Scarlet Knights are currently ranked 29 in the NET Rankings, a slight drop since the previous update.

Rutgers is now 8-8 against Q1/2 opponents combined. The most impressive Q1 wins for Rutgers on the season are road wins over Purdue and Northwestern as well as home wins over Indiana and Maryland. Michigan State is currently surging in the Big Ten, and as the Spartans continue to win their NET Ranking continues to rise. The Rutgers win over Michigan State at Madison Square Garden in early February could become another Q1 win for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers only has one Q1 contest remaining on their schedule as they will travel to State College PA to battle Penn State on February 26.

The Scarlet Knights still remain a rock solid 5-2 against Q2 opponents as they own victories over Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Wisconsin. It should be noted that of the five Q2 wins by Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights beat Penn State by 20 and Wake Forest by 24. Rutgers has two Q2 games remaining on their schedule, home games against Michigan (2/23) and Northwestern (3/5).

If there is anything that could drag Rutgers resume down and hurt their seeding is the Q3 losses to Nebraska and Temple. Although, Nebraska and Temple are ranked on the higher end of Q3 teams, having at least two Q3 losses on your resume will impact your seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

Rutgers remains a perfect 7-0 against Q4 teams this season. The Scarlet Knights have done a wonderful job handling their business against Q4 opponents as they are beating Q4 teams by 30 points or more in each contest, a metric that definitely boosts their NET Ranking. The only landmine that remains on Rutgers schedule is a March 2 road game against Minnesota.

The Metrics

The metrics are still trending in Rutgers favor as the Scarlet Knights are still playing defense at a very high level. Currently, Rutgers is rated the 4th best team in the land for defensive efficiency; however, Rutgers offensive efficiency has dipped in their last several games as they are rated 128th, according to KenPom.

Rutgers is now 9-0 in the Big Ten when holding opponents under 65 points, but they are a dreadful 0-7 in the conference when opponents score more than 65 points.

Here are the ratings for Rutgers according to several major college basketball metrics heavy web sites:

• KenPom - 27
• Sagarin - 24
• Torvik - 27
• Haslametrics - 36
• ESPN BPI - 17

The Remaining Schedule

The remaining schedule for Rutgers includes one Q1 road game, two Q2 home games, and one Q4 road game. What was supposed to be lighter schedule Rutgers has turned into a difficult mountain to climb; however, the Scarlet Knights still remain determined to win. 

Dropping two road games to Indiana and Illinois was understandable, but the home loss to Nebraska was especially baffling. Rutgers made up for lost ground by stunning Wisconsin 58-57 on the road. The win was especially big for Rutgers because they had won the game without their 2022-23 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Caleb McConnell due to a back spasms injury.

With only four games remaining on the regular season, Rutgers needs to close out the season strong by finishing 3-1 or better to potentially earn a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Bart Torvik projects Rutgers to finish 20-11 overall and 12-8 in the conference

If Rutgers finishes the season 2-2, they will go dancing but will probably end up as an 8/9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers would finish the regular season at 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the Big Ten.

While finishing the season 1-3 is not ideal, Rutgers would likely still go dancing but would have to sweat it out to see if they will be playing in Dayton or earn a 10-seed, preventing them from playing in the First Four. Rutgers would finish the season 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten.

One thing remains certain, the Scarlet Knights' road trip to Minnesota is a game they must win to avoid any potential negative impact to their resume and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. A loss to Minnesota could also be the difference in Rutgers ending up on the left or right side of the bubble. 

Rutgers is still not a lock for the NCAA Tournament just yet. Bart Torvik gives Rutgers a 91.5% chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament and earning a 7-seed.

What do the Bracketologists Think About Rutgers?

According to BracketMatrix.com, Rutgers has appeared in 90 brackets and are averaging an 8-seed. Majority of the bracketologists have Rutgers seeded anywhere from a 7/8/9-seed but the highest seed they have been assigned is by Jerry Palm of CBS Sports who currently has them projected as a 10-seed.

• Brad Wachtel of Facts and Bracks projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 8-seed Duke in Birmingham, AL in the South Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Alabama or 16-seed UNC Asheville. Brad Wachtel is one the highest and most accurate bracketologists, according to BracketMatrix.com.
• Jonathan Warriner of Making the Madness projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers matched up against 8-seed Nevada in Des Moines, IA in the Midwest Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Kansas or 16-seed Samford. 
• Mike Decourcy of FOX Sports projects Rutgers to be a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 10-seed West Virginia in Sacramento, CA in the West Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 2-seed UCLA or 15-seed Eastern Washington. Mike Decourcy is the highest rated bracketologist of all the major sports networks and has been very accurate over the past several years, according to BracketMatrix.com.
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He has Rutgers potentially facing 9-seed Texas A&M in Birmingham, AL of the Midwest Region of the bracket. The winner would potentially face 1-seed Houston or 16-seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Joe Lunardi is one of the most popular bracketologists but is rated lower than other bracketologists, according to BracketMatrix.com.

    Other Bracketologists:

• JBR Bracketology projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed.
• NJ Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• 801 Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• Delphi Bracketology projects Rutgers to be an 8-seed.
• Rocco Miller projects Rutgers to be a 9-seed.

Weekly Big Ten Power Rankings (games played thru February 12)

 

Q&A with JBR Bracketology

Selection Sunday is only a month away, and only a few teams from the college basketball landscape have locked in their bids for the NCAA Tournament while others are fighting for their lives to get into the tournament.

The Big Ten Conference is one of the most competitive leagues from top to bottom and are projected to land as many as eight teams in the field, maybe even nine. However, there is certainly a lot of basketball left in the regular season for teams to make a run and cover lost ground. There is also enough basketball left for teams to have an utter catastrophic collapse at the end of the regular season.

Once the regular season is over, the conference tournaments begin, and bid stealers lurk in the shadows and the most unlikely upsets occur.

You can just feel the anxiety and nervousness amongst the fan bases. 

That's why I've decided to reach out to bracketology expert Jason R. of JBR Bracketology. Jason explains the hard work that goes into creating a bracket, and the specific data he analyzes when selecting teams. Jason also answers my questions about what Rutgers needs to do to ensure a bid into the NCAA Tournament and what possible seed they can achieve. I also asked a few questions about other teams in the Big Ten and where do they project to land in the field, as well as some of the perceived bubble teams in the Big Ten.

Please follow and support JBR Bracketology on Twitter @ JBRBracketology. Jason updates his brackets every few days during the week.

 

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jason, thanks for taking some time out of your day today to do a Q&A with me. You’re a 2015 Maryland graduate and have been following college basketball for as long as you can remember. You told me Maryland’s national championship in 2002 fueled your passion for college hoops at a very young age. Over the last four years, you’ve taken up an interest in bracketology and call it JBR Bracketology. So, I think it would be appropriate as my first question to ask why did you take up an interest in doing your own bracketology?

Jason R. (JBR): Thanks for having me! I first started bracketology during the 2020 season. Maryland was a top 10 team most of the season and I just kept feeling like the Terps were being disrespected by bracketologists, as the Big Ten was the #1 conference that season per KenPom. So I was curious to see what they were seeing, what was holding the Terps back.

RHI: In last year’s NCAA Tournament, you selected 67 out of 68 teams correctly, and at least had 66 out of 68 teams seeded within +/-1 seed line for a total score of 357. Is there a magic formula you use when selecting teams? What rankings and metrics do you pay most attention to when it comes to selecting teams? What truly goes into building a bracket?

JBR: I had two real misses last year – one was including Texas A&M over Notre Dame, and the other was seeding Colgate as a 16 when the committee had them as a 14 seed. The Texas A&M snub served as a reminder how little the committee takes the final two days of conference tournaments into account. Colgate was a silly one to get wrong, but have tweaked my formula to better account for the mid to low major AQs and what the committee is looking for. I am proud of the fact that every single at large team I had seeded exactly correct or one seed line off. Following Selection Sunday, I spent several hours combing through the data to make changes for this year to be as accurate as I can be when matching what the committee is looking for!

In terms of a secret formula, I have always been very analytical. I love my spreadsheets, I love math, I love using numbers. In other words – yes, I do use a secret formula. When I first started back in 2020, I was obviously new and had a tough time figuring out how to adjust the weights for quad records, the NET, the resume metrics, the predictive metrics etc. to best match the committee. It’s a growing process and I make changes all the time. Most of them now are pretty minor, but being adaptable is key. The categories I look at are weighted record (different weights for wins by Quad), weighed win percentage, Quad 1A wins, wins over projected 1 or 2 seeds, NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI and Non-Conference SOS. They are all weighted differently, but at the end of the day, the most important thing is always going to be quality wins.

RHI: I’ve noticed you have had many constructive debates and conversations with many bracketologists, and sometimes you’ve been critical of some bracketologists. What do you think separates yourself from some of the other bracketologists, and why do you think your bracket this year will be more accurate than most other bracketologists?

JBR: Haha, yes, I do love some occasional friendly banter. One of the things I think I excel at in this field is eliminating bias. Because my seeding is almost entirely formulaic, it reduces the chances that I let my own personal bias influence where a team is seeded. Now obviously, my formula is dictated by my own mathematical inputs and various weights I put on each category, but me disliking Duke isn’t going to change where my formula has them. As an example, I am pretty sure my formula has been lower on Maryland than Bracket Matrix/ consensus for weeks now. But that’s ok. I’m not necessarily trying to make friends here, just trying to display what I honestly think committee would do.

RHI: I wanted to shift gears and turn our attention to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Big Ten Conference. I’m going to get straight to the point and ask you, how many teams from the Big Ten are going to make the tournament this year? Which teams?

JBR: I will say Big Ten gets 8 bids. Northwestern all but secured their spot with a massive win over Purdue. I could see Wisconsin or Michigan earning the league's 9th bid, but I think the chances of that are low with each of them dropping key games this weekend.

RHI: You have the Purdue Boilermakers as the number 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament in your latest projections. Alabama has been playing incredible basketball all year, do you think the Crimson Tide could dethrone the Boilermakers? If not Alabama, is there anyone else that can grab the number 1 spot?

JBR: Well, I think that will be switched already with Purdue falling to Northwestern as I type this. Alabama will move to #1, while Purdue will drop to #2. In terms of other teams capable of earning the #1 overall seed, I would say the winner of the Big 12 – Kansas or Texas, just because they will have an insane number of Quad 1 (and Quad 1A) wins.

RHI: Rutgers (21 in NET) is coming off a very difficult week. They had a big win over Michigan State at The Garden just about over a week ago, but they lost their key defensive starter Mawot Mag to an ACL tear in the process. Then Rutgers followed the Michigan State victory with two road losses to two very good teams in Indiana (Q1) and Illinois (Q1). Where do you have Rutgers in the field in your next update?

JBR: My next update will come out Monday afternoon. There were a lot of teams around Rutgers that lost this weekend, but I would expect Rutgers to come in as a low end 7 seed, if not the top 8 seed. The loss of Mawot Mag hurts, and we have now seen Rutgers go 0-2 without him, albeit against high level competition on the road.

RHI: Rutgers only has six games left in the regular season. In your opinion, what does Rutgers have to do to get back on the 5/6-seed line? At a minimum, what does Rutgers have to do to earn a single digit seed in the tournament?

JBR: To earn a single digit seed, I think Rutgers just needs to finish 3-3. To get back to the 5/6 line where they were before the Indiana & Illinois losses, they probably need to go 5-1. Currently, just one of their final 6 games are Quad 1 (2/26 @ Penn State). If Rutgers finishes 4-2, they probably end up with a 7 seed. Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. What the other teams around them do matters as well.

RHI: Wisconsin (73 in NET) and Penn State (62 in NET) are two teams that started off the season in great shape. Now, both teams are on the verge of collapse and are desperate to save their seasons. You had Wisconsin as one of your “First Four Out”, where are the Badgers now after their epic collapse against Nebraska on Saturday? Is Penn State still in the bubble conversation after losing their 4^th in a row? What do both teams have to do to get back in the conversation?

JBR: As I stated previously, my next update will come out Monday afternoon. The bubble had a *rough* Saturday, my guess is Wisconsin roughly stays in the same spot, as a member of the first four out, but maybe a couple spots closer to the next four out. Penn State following their loss to Maryland is going to have a really tough time making the tournament at this point. Good news is Penn State still has five Quad 1 games remaining. Win at least 3 of those, and they will at least be close. Win four and they’re probably a lock to earn an at large bid. But that is much easier said than done.

RHI: Maryland has been surging lately but they have been gifted a lighter conference schedule than most other Big Ten teams. By season’s end they will have played the Big Ten’s bottom tier teams twice (Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin). Maryland is 3-8 against Q1 opponents and they have only one Big Ten road win all season, which was against Minnesota, yet the Terps have a NET Ranking of 28. You currently have Maryland in the field as a 9-seed. The Terps close out the season against Purdue (home), Nebraska (away), Minnesota (home), Northwestern (home), Ohio State (away), and Penn State (away). What does Maryland have to do down the stretch to improve its seed? What is the worst case for scenario?

JBR: Terps likely jump to an 8 seed with their win over Penn State. But Maryland is still lacking an elite win. They have three Quad 1 wins, which is pretty good, but none of them are Quad 1A. To get to the 5 or 6 line, Maryland will either need to knock off Purdue or win at least 2 of their remaining road games - @ Nebraska, @ Ohio State, @ Penn State. Most likely scenario for Maryland I think is a 7 or 8 seed. Worst case scenario would be dropping down to bubble/ last four in.

RHI: Michigan has been a strange team no one’s been able to figure out. They have a couple head scratching losses but they also have some very impressive wins. Michigan is currently 14-11 overall, and 8-6 in the Big Ten with a NET Ranking of 64. Is Michigan in the bubble conversation? Should we dismiss Michigan from any tournament chatter? What do you think Michigan has to do to get into the tournament?

JBR: I wouldn’t dismiss Michigan, they do still have talent and are always a tough out. But that loss to Indiana on Saturday really hurt their at large chances. Currently 14-11, the Wolverines likely need to finish 5-1 to be a lock. 4-2 would get them close. 3-3 or worse, and Michigan will need to win Big Ten Tournament to earn a bid.

RHI: Give us your final prediction on Rutgers in their next six games, and where do you think they will land in the field on Selection Sunday.

JBR: I will say Rutgers finished 21-10 (13-7) and earns a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter - @JBRBracketology! Love talking college basketball with fellow Big Ten fans.

RHI: Jason, thanks again. It was a great conversation and hopefully we can do it again soon.