After an exuberant 66-63 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers this past Wednesday, the Scarlet Knights immediately turned their attention and focus to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Rutgers hosts Penn State this Sunday, March 6th (12 PM ET, BTN) at The RAC its in regular season finale. It will be a very emotional and exciting day with a lot on the line. The Scarlet Knights and their fans will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan, one last time as they try to defeat the Nittany Lions to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. A win against Penn State will almost guarantee Rutgers an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Also, a chance at a double-bye or better a seed for the Big Ten Tournament will be on the line. Sunday's game against Penn State might arguably be the biggest Senior Day game in Rutgers Scarlet Knights basketball history.
How did Rutgers get here? And what is on the line?
The Scarlet Knights (17-12 overall; 11-8 conference) are in a must-win situation coming into the game against Penn State on Sunday. Rutgers is currently sitting at #75 in the NET Rankings (Q1 6-5; Q2 3-4; Q3 3-2; Q4 5-1). With a victory over Penn State (Q3), Rutgers has a chance to slightly boost its NET Ranking. The NET Rankings is a tool with different metrics involved the NCAA Tournament Committee uses to evaluate teams. There has been a lot of criticism of the NET Rankings by Rutgers fans this year because no one quite understands the metrics involved with the NET, but any bracketologist will tell you that the Committee values the NET, and Rutgers needs to improve its NET Ranking for a shot at the tournament.
Earlier in the season, Rutgers had a fluke Q4 loss to NET-ranked #319 Lafayette (53-51) followed by a terrible Q3 loss to NET-ranked #191 Massachusetts (85-83). Both losses have been defined as 'very bad losses' and have prevented Rutgers from ascending in the rankings, despite six incredible Q1 victories, and kept the Scarlet Knights square on the bubble. There have been many highs and lows with Rutgers this season. Aside from the poor losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers lost to the bottom four teams in the Big Ten, including Maryland (Q3, 68-60), Penn State (Q2, 66-49), Minnesota (Q2, 68-65), and Northwestern (Q2, 79-78). Rutgers was also blown out in December by Illinois (Q1, 85-51) and Seton Hall (Q1, 77-63). Rutgers was able to filter in some quality wins in December and January, including victories over then AP Top 25 ranked #1 Purdue (Q1, 70-68), Iowa (Q1, 48-46), Michigan (Q1, 75-67) and Maryland (Q2, 70-59). By the end of January, the outlook for Rutgers to make the NCAA Tournament was bleak.
However, through all of the criticism and negativity, Rutgers awoke and found their identity in February. They found their identity in the second half of a close loss to Northwestern. Credit Steve Pikiell for making adjustments, and his team responded. They started playing with intensity, toughness, and chemistry, major qualities of a typical Steve Pikiell team. These were the missing ingredients earlier in the season, and Rutgers somehow figured it out. Their incredible effort from the Northwestern game transpired over in their next four games. If you asked any analyst or fan if Rutgers was going to survive the February gauntlet, most would have told you Rutgers does not stand a chance. The Scarlet Knights were essentially left for dead.
So when the February gauntlet arrived, Rutgers battled through adversity, and were able to reel off four historic Q1 wins in a row, beating the Big Ten's top tier teams. Rutgers became the first unranked team in college basketball history to defeat four ranked opponents in a row. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State (84-63); avenged Illinois (70-59); beat Wisconsin on the road (73-65); and came from behind to defeat Ohio State (66-64). Analysts across the college basketball world took notice of Rutgers and their incredible accomplishment. ESPN and Andy Katz declared Rutgers as the National Team of the Week. Rutgers found themselves near the top of the Big Ten standings, and bracketologists across the country began placing the Scarlet Knights in the Field of 68. What we saw in February is what Steve Pikiell described for the start of the season as his "best team".
Although Rutgers was riding high with confidence, it took a trip to Mackey Arena on February 20th to stop the red hot Scarlet Knights in their path. Purdue was able to pull off an 84-72 victory at home against Rutgers. Rutgers followed up its performance at Purdue with losses to Michigan (Q1, 71-62) and Wisconsin (Q1, 66-61), which put Rutgers squarely back on the bubble. Analysts across college basketball began writing off the Scarlet Knights once again, and many bracketologists actually removed Rutgers from the Field of 68.
With their backs against the wall, Rutgers knew they needed a big win at Indiana (Q1) to resurrect their NCAA Tournament hopes. Rutgers seized the opportunity and proved all the naysayers wrong as they pulled off a stunning 66-63 win on the road at Assembly Hall, one of the Big Ten's toughest environments. Rutgers has now won seven out of its last eight meetings with the Hoosiers.
This Sunday, Rutgers will battle Penn State (12-15 overall; 7-12 conference) at a sold out RAC in front of a raucous crowd. In order for Rutgers to prove they are still worthy of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, Rutgers must avoid a loss to Penn State (Q3). But make no mistake, Penn State will not go quietly into the night. The Nittany Lions are a tough basketball team, and new head coach Micah Shrewsbury will have his players playing with belief that they can win and play spoiler in New Jersey. Penn State has had some tough losses this season but some great wins, including a road win at Michigan State and an upset of #24 Iowa. Also, Penn State blasted Rutgers in Happy Valley earlier this season. A Q3 loss to Penn State would seriously damage Rutgers NCAA Tournament hopes.
Rutgers knows what is on the line: 1.) Potential at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament 2.) Possibility of finishing 4th place but no worse than 6th place in the Big Ten standings 3.) Possible double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Potential Big Ten Tournament scenarios
Currently, Rutgers is sitting in 6th place in the Big Ten standings at 11-8. Iowa and Ohio State are both 12-7 in the standings. Behind Rutgers in the standings are Michigan and Michigan state at 10-9.
If you are a Rutgers fan you will be rooting for Ohio State to lose to Michigan and for Illinois to beat Iowa. The reason why you want Ohio State and Iowa to both lose and of course hope for a Rutgers win is because Rutgers owns the tiebreak (victories over both teams) for the season, and Rutgers could ascend to 4th place, essentially giving Rutgers a double-bye for the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers has never finished in 4th place in the Big Ten and earned a double-bye.
If both Iowa and Ohio State win their games, Rutgers would finish no worse than 6th place and Rutgers would play the winner of the 11-seed vs 14-seed matchup Thursday, March 10th. Even if Iowa and Ohio State both lose, and Rutgers loses, Rutgers would still finish in 6th place ahead of Michigan and Michigan State. However, losing is not an option for Rutgers on Sunday because it would seriously damage their NCAA Tournament chances. Rutgers would then have to go on a Big Ten Tournament run to make up for the loss to Penn State.
If Rutgers were to win on Sunday, and Iowa were to lose but Ohio State wins -or- Ohio State loses and Iowa wins, Rutgers would finish in 5th place. Rutgers would then face the winner of the 12-seed vs 13-seed matchup.
Rutgers pays tribute to its senior class
Sunday's game against Penn State is going to be emotionally charged for the coaches, players, and fans. It is going to be a sad day yet an exciting day. Rutgers nation will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan. This will be the last time Rutgers fans will see Geo Baker in action at The RAC, and probably the last time Rutgers fans will see Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr.
Geo Baker has been the catalyst for Steve Pikiell with helping to turn around a dead Rutgers basketball program. Rutgers basketball would certainly not be where it is today if it were not for the contributions of Geo Baker. He may very well be one of the most important players in Rutgers men's basketball history.
Rutgers men's basketball was once a dead program. It was a place that most coaches wanted to avoid despite its affiliation in the Atlantic 10 Conference and the Big East Conference. Since the 1990-91 season, when Bob Wenzel led the charge and Rutgers made its last NCAA Tournament appearance, many coaches that followed were unsuccessful. Kevin Bannon followed Bob Wenzel and went 59-60. Bannon was fired in 2001. Gary Waters went 79-75, including an NIT Championship appearance in 2004. Waters resigned in 2006. Fred Hill Jr. was hired after Waters' resignation, and went 57-77 overall. Hill Jr. was fired after four seasons on The Banks. Mike Rice Jr. went 44-51 and was fired in 2013 after being embroiled in controversy for abusing his players. Rice Jr. left a stain on the Rutgers program, and players began to transfer out after Rice Jr. was fired. Rutgers turned to Eddie Jordan, a Rutgers basketball legend, to help turn around the program. However, Jordan struggled to recruit and went a dismal 29-68. Jordan oversaw the transition of Rutgers from the Big East to the American Athletic to the Big Ten. Jordan was fired in in 2016, and Rutgers was desperate to find a coach who would lead the charge of an almost impossible situation. Who would be the next coach to take over what was the worst Power 5 basketball program in the nation? In 2016, new Rutgers AD Pat Hobbs hired Steve Pikiell as head coach.
In Steve Pikiell's second season as head coach of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, things were noticeably different. Rutgers had a different energy under Pikiell. The Scarlet Knights started winning some games and play competitively in the Big Ten. Pikiell relied on his 2017 recruiting class to start making contributions in the 2017-18 season. Geo Baker was one of his primary recruits in the 2017 recruiting class. Baker was a borderline two-/three-star recruit, with offers from only a few low-major schools, when he came to The Banks, and Pikiell inserted him into the playing mix almost right away. Baker had several breakout games in the 2017-18 season. He and former Rutgers standout Corey Sanders carried Rutgers to a massive upset victory over 6-seed Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, making Rutgers the first 14-seed in Big Ten Tournament history to reach the Quarterfinals. Although Rutgers lost to #11 ranked Purdue in the Quarterfinals, it was Geo Baker who scored 25 pts and pushed the Boilermakers to the edge of a near loss. Purdue escaped with a 82-75 victory.
Geo Baker almost immediately moved to the forefront of Rutgers as its true leader after his first season. Time and time again, Baker continued to make big play after big play in the seasons that would follow. Baker was the savior for Rutgers when found itself down to Nebraska at The RAC in the 2019-20 season. Baker hit a clutch three-point shot that would lift Rutgers to a season-saving 75-72 victory. With their backs against the wall and in the last game of the season, Geo Baker carried Rutgers to an overtime victory over Purdue at Mackey Arena to deliver what would have been Rutgers first NCAA Tournament bid since the 1990-91 season if COVID-19 had not canceled the season. Throughout the 2020-21 season and current season, Baker would continuously lead the charge and guide to Rutgers to many come-from-behind improbable victories. It was Geo Baker who became almost superhuman in a massive come-from-behind rally to upset #16 Ohio State. Baker scored 25 points, but it was the final series of shots Baker that took, and incredible passing to help Rutgers win the game against the Buckeyes. Baker has been clutch in the moment when Rutgers has needed him most. It was not always about scoring points with Geo Baker, but it was the plays he made that never showed up in the stat sheets. It was the crisp passes he made to his teammates. His basketball IQ grew, and he made better decisions with the ball each year. It was the confidence boosters he gave his teammates when they felt down about missing a shot or making a bad play. He carried himself as a true ambassador of Rutgers basketball.
Although Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr both have another year of eligibility remaining, it is likely they will be moving on from Rutgers. No formal announcement has been made yet by both players. Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr. have made incredible contributions to Rutgers basketball and have forever cemented their legacies in Rutgers basketball history. They were both extraordinary pioneers that helped Rutgers become a better team in college basketball.
McConnell was a consensus three-star recruit, and Harper Jr. was given a no star rating by ESPN, 247Sports, Rivals, and Scout. When these players were recruited by Steve Pikiell, fans began to wonder if Pikiell was able to recruit quality players. But little did many Rutgers fans know at the time, Pikiell loves to build and mold players. There is a certain quality about a basketball player that Pikiell and his staff love. Pikiell is not going to lure five-star one-and done kids to Rutgers because that is not what he is looking for. Pikiell knew he would get commitment and stability out of McConnell and Harper Jr. In return, Pikiell helped them become even better players than they were when they first arrived to Piscataway.
Ron Harper Jr.'s game has improved drastically since arriving in 2018, and he is now one of five finalists for the 2021-22 Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award. Caleb McConnell is now one of ten semifinalists for the 2021-22 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award and potentially the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. No one would have seen this coming from the day they arrived in the 2018-19 season. Like Baker, time and time again, we have seen incredible performance after incredible performance from these two players to help churn out tough grinding wins against the Big Ten's best. Most notably, it was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a three-pointer that gut-punched Indiana in the closing seconds of this past week's game to keep the Scarlet Knights' tournament chances alive. It was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a near mid-court heave that upset then ranked #1 Purdue. It was Ron Harper Jr. who took over many games between 2018 and 2022 that rocked the Big Ten's best. Who can forget the incredible block by Caleb McConnell in the closing minutes against Ohio State this season? McConnell's block sparked a run by Rutgers to come from 10 points down to upset the Buckeyes and secure an important Q1 win. McConnell is averaging an incredible 2.3 steals per game this season, and has nearly 30 more steals (67 steals) the Big Ten's second best steal leader Chase Audige of Northwestern!
(video courtesy of Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media. The last four minutes of Rutgers vs Ohio State. Rutgers pulls off an incredible upset from the likes of Caleb McConnell's block, and Geo Baker fueling a 10-0 run.)There are so many special moments that these players have given us over the last 4-5 years, but as they get ready to graduate and move on from Rutgers basketball, you must remember how these young men have developed over the years into true leaders. Under the close guidance of Steve Pikiell, Brandin Knight, and Karl Hobbs, they became the true catalysts that helped saved this once faltering Rutgers basketball program. Baker, McConnell, and Harper Jr. are the reason why Rutgers fans have a reason to cheer, and why The RAC is now one of the toughest venues for opponents to play at in the country. When they leave, they will have left Rutgers basketball in a much better place.
