How does Rutgers tournament resume stack up against the other bubble teams?
As Selection Sunday is only hours away, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights have another very interesting tournament resume just like last season. There are positives and there are negatives. Let's compare Rutgers' resume to the rest of the bubble teams. (Note: All information is current as of 11 March. Seeding projections are based on averages from BracketMatrix.com.)
graphic courtesy of Mike Broadbent (The Knight Report)
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (19-14; 11-11)
Latest Seed Projection: 11 (Last Four In)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 114 out of 118
NET Rankings: 40
KenPom Rankings: 35
NET SOS: 41
NC SOS: 314
Home Record: 14-5
Away Record: 4-7(includes three Q1 wins & one Q2 win)
Neutral Record: 1-2 (includes one Q2 win)
SOR: 57
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 2-4
Q4: 7-0
Best Wins: 12/3, Indiana (27, Q1); 1/2, at Purdue (5, Q1); 1/5, Maryland (22, Q1); 1/11, at Northwestern (41, Q1); 1/15, Ohio State (48, Q2); 1/24, Penn State (55, Q2); 2/4, Michigan State (33, Q2); 2/26, at Penn State (55, Q1); 3/9, vs Michigan (58, Q2)
Bad Losses: 11/18, vs Temple (127, Q3); 2/14, Nebraska (93, Q3); 3/2, at Minnesota (220, Q3)
Interesting Note: Of all the bubble teams, Rutgers has the worst non-conference strength of schedule at 314. Rutgers does own the most true Q1 road wins out of all the teams projected to make the field. Rutgers also owns 7 wins over teams projected to the make the field and two Q1A wins.
BUBBLE TEAMS -
MISSISSIPPI STATE (21-12; 9-11)
Latest Seed Projection: 11 (Last Four In)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 114 out of 118
NET Rankings: 49
KenPom Rankings: 49
NET SOS: 38
NC SOS: 230
Home Record: 12-4
Away Record: 4-6 (includes one Q1 win & one Q2 win)
Neutral Record: 5-2 (includes one Q1 win & two Q2 wins)
SOR: 41
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 8-0
Best Wins: 11/21, vs Marquette (12, Q1); 1/28, TCU (29, Q1); 2/4, Missouri (42, Q2); 2/11, at Arkansas (22, Q1); 2/25, Texas A&M (20, Q1); 3/9, vs Florida (60, Q2)
Bad Losses: 1/11, at Georgia (152, Q3)
Interesting Note: Mississippi State is 5-2 on neutral floors, which is a very solid record. The Bulldogs own one of the best neutral floor victories this year when they defeated Marquette 58-55 back in November. The Bulldogs do have one Q1A win on the season and it came on the road against Arkansas back in mid-February.
PITTSBURGH (22-11; 15-7)
Latest Seed Projection: 11 (Last Four In)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 80 out of 118
NET Rankings: 67
KenPom Ranking: 78
NET SOS: 89
NC SOS: 145
Home Record: 14-3
Away Record: 7-5 (includes three Q1 wins)
Neutral Record: 1-3
SOR: 58
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 3-5
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Best Wins: 11/28, at Northwestern (41, Q1); 12/2, at NC State (45, Q1); 12/30, North Carolina (46, Q2); 1/3, Virginia (23, Q1); 1/28, Miami (35, Q2); 2/1, at North Carolina (46, Q1)
Bad Losses: 1/21, Florida State (221, Q4); 3/1, at Notre Dame (186, Q3)
Interesting Note: Pittsburgh has zero Q1A wins and has the worst SOR among the projected teams to make the field. Pittsburgh lost by 31 to Michigan earlier in the season as well as a 25 point loss to West Virginia and 27 point loss to Duke.
ARIZONA STATE (22-12; 13-10)
Latest Seed Projection: 11 (Last Four In)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 95 out of 118
NET Rankings: 66
KenPom Rankings: 68
NET SOS: 54
NC SOS: 188
Home Record: 10-5
Away Record: 7-6 (includes three Q1 wins)
Neutral Record: 5-1 (includes two Q1 wins & two Q2 wins)
SOR: 47
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 4-5
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 8-1
Best Wins: 11/16, vs VCU (61, Q2); 11/17, vs Michigan (58, Q2); 12/1, at Colorado (70, Q1); 12/12, vs Creighton (16, Q1); 1/12, at Oregon (47, Q1); 2/25, at Arizona (10, Q1); 3/4, vs USC (50, Q1)
Bad Losses: 11/13, at Texas Southern (302, Q4)
Interesting Note: Arizona State has a very good neutral record but picked up two additional neutral wins in the PAC-12 Tournament. The Sun Devils lost to San Francisco by 37 points in December, their largest margin of defeat for the season. Majority of Arizona State's Q1 wins are low Q1 wins except for their wins over Arizona and Creighton.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (23-10; 13-9)
Latest Seed Projection: 11 (Last Four Byes)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 102 out of 118
NET Rankings: 45
KenPom Rankings: 55
NET SOS: 78
NC SOS: 244
Home Record: 15-2
Away Record: 4-6
Neutral Record: 4-2
SOR: 40
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 7-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 10-0
Best Wins: 11/24, vs Dayton (76, Q2); 12/17, vs Vanderbilt (79, Q2); 1/4, Duke (17, Q1); 1/7, at Virginia Tech (78, Q2); 1/14, Miami (35, Q2); 2/19, North Carolina (46, Q2); 3/8, vs Virginia Tech (78, Q2)
Bad Losses: None
Interesting Note: NC State has only one win against Q1 teams but zero Q3/4 losses.
NEVADA WOLF PACK (21-10; 12-7)
Latest Seed Projection: OUT (First Four Out)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 28 out of 118
NET Rankings: 37
KenPom Rankings: 41
SOS: 70
NC SOS: 134
Home Record: 13-1
Away Record: 6-7 (includes one Q1 win & two Q2 wins)
Neutral Record: 2-2
SOR: 53
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 11-2
Q4: 3-0
Best Wins: 11/28, Sam Houston State (65, Q2); 12/28, Boise State (27, Q1); 1/13, Utah State (19, Q1); 1/23, New Mexico (53, Q2); 1/31, San Diego State (14, Q1); 2/7, at New Mexico (53, Q1)
Bad Losses: 2/27, at Wyoming (172, Q3); 3/4, UNLV (91, Q3)
Interesting Note: Nevada is lacking in quality road wins. The Wolf Pack only have one Q1 road win on the season but it comes against a lower rated Q1 opponent.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (18-15; 9-11)
Latest Seed Projection: OUT (First Four Out)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 31 out of 118
NET Rankings: 45
KenPom Rankings: 38
NET SOS: 8
NC SOS: 192
Home Record: 11-5
Away Record: 4-7 (includes three Q1 wins)
Neutral Record: 3-3 (includes one Q2 win)
SOR: 44
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 6-12
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 5-0
Best Wins: 12/6, Sam Houston State (65, Q2); 1/2, West Virginia (24, Q1); 1/18, Oklahoma (68, Q2); 1/21, Iowa State (20, Q1); 2/1, at Oklahoma (68, Q1); 2/11, at Iowa State (20, Q1); 2/4, TCU (28, Q1); 2/8, Texas Tech (64, Q2); 3/4, at Texas Tech (64, Q1); 3/8, vs Oklahoma (68, Q2)
Bad Losses: 11/10, Southern Illinois (120, Q3)
Interesting Note: The Cowboys have played one of the toughest schedules in the country; however, they only have one Q1A win on the season. The Cowboys are 4-10 against high Q1 competition.
CLEMSON TIGERS (23-10; 15-7)
Latest Seed Projection: OUT (First Four Out)
Appearing In Total Brackets: 3 out of 118
NET Rankings: 60
KenPom Rankings: 64
NET SOS: 102
NC SOS: 334
Home Record: 15-1
Away Record: 5-6 (includes two Q1 wins & one Q2 win)
Neutral Record: 3-3 (includes one Q1 win)
SOR: 54
Quadrant Record:
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 9-2
Best Wins: 11/29, Penn State (49, Q2); 12/30, NC State (45, Q2); 1/4, at Virginia Tech (77, Q2); 1/7, at Pittsburgh (67, Q1); 1/14, Duke (16, Q1); 2/25, at NC State (45, Q1); 3/9, vs NC State (45, Q1)
Bad Losses: 11/11, at South Carolina (234, Q3); 12/10, vs Loyola-Chicago (267, Q4); 1/31, at Boston College (168, Q3); 2/18, at Louisville (315, Q4)
Interesting Note: Clemson has zero high Q1 wins and has a total of four Q3/4 losses with their worst coming towards the end of the season against Louisville.
Rutgers hosts Penn State in a massive regular season finale with its NCAA Tournament hopes on the line; fans pay tribute to its seniors
After an exuberant 66-63 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers this past Wednesday, the Scarlet Knights immediately turned their attention and focus to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Rutgers hosts Penn State this Sunday, March 6th (12 PM ET, BTN) at The RAC its in regular season finale. It will be a very emotional and exciting day with a lot on the line. The Scarlet Knights and their fans will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan, one last time as they try to defeat the Nittany Lions to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. A win against Penn State will almost guarantee Rutgers an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Also, a chance at a double-bye or better a seed for the Big Ten Tournament will be on the line. Sunday's game against Penn State might arguably be the biggest Senior Day game in Rutgers Scarlet Knights basketball history.
(photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media)
How did Rutgers get here? And what is on the line?
The Scarlet Knights (17-12 overall; 11-8 conference) are in a must-win situation coming into the game against Penn State on Sunday. Rutgers is currently sitting at #75 in the NET Rankings (Q1 6-5; Q2 3-4; Q3 3-2; Q4 5-1). With a victory over Penn State (Q3), Rutgers has a chance to slightly boost its NET Ranking. The NET Rankings is a tool with different metrics involved the NCAA Tournament Committee uses to evaluate teams. There has been a lot of criticism of the NET Rankings by Rutgers fans this year because no one quite understands the metrics involved with the NET, but any bracketologist will tell you that the Committee values the NET, and Rutgers needs to improve its NET Ranking for a shot at the tournament.
Earlier in the season, Rutgers had a fluke Q4 loss to NET-ranked #319 Lafayette (53-51) followed by a terrible Q3 loss to NET-ranked #191 Massachusetts (85-83). Both losses have been defined as 'very bad losses' and have prevented Rutgers from ascending in the rankings, despite six incredible Q1 victories, and kept the Scarlet Knights square on the bubble. There have been many highs and lows with Rutgers this season. Aside from the poor losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers lost to the bottom four teams in the Big Ten, including Maryland (Q3, 68-60), Penn State (Q2, 66-49), Minnesota (Q2, 68-65), and Northwestern (Q2, 79-78). Rutgers was also blown out in December by Illinois (Q1, 85-51) and Seton Hall (Q1, 77-63). Rutgers was able to filter in some quality wins in December and January, including victories over then AP Top 25 ranked #1 Purdue (Q1, 70-68), Iowa (Q1, 48-46), Michigan (Q1, 75-67) and Maryland (Q2, 70-59). By the end of January, the outlook for Rutgers to make the NCAA Tournament was bleak.
However, through all of the criticism and negativity, Rutgers awoke and found their identity in February. They found their identity in the second half of a close loss to Northwestern. Credit Steve Pikiell for making adjustments, and his team responded. They started playing with intensity, toughness, and chemistry, major qualities of a typical Steve Pikiell team. These were the missing ingredients earlier in the season, and Rutgers somehow figured it out. Their incredible effort from the Northwestern game transpired over in their next four games. If you asked any analyst or fan if Rutgers was going to survive the February gauntlet, most would have told you Rutgers does not stand a chance. The Scarlet Knights were essentially left for dead.
So when the February gauntlet arrived, Rutgers battled through adversity, and were able to reel off four historic Q1 wins in a row, beating the Big Ten's top tier teams. Rutgers became the first unranked team in college basketball history to defeat four ranked opponents in a row. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State (84-63); avenged Illinois (70-59); beat Wisconsin on the road (73-65); and came from behind to defeat Ohio State (66-64). Analysts across the college basketball world took notice of Rutgers and their incredible accomplishment. ESPN and Andy Katz declared Rutgers as the National Team of the Week. Rutgers found themselves near the top of the Big Ten standings, and bracketologists across the country began placing the Scarlet Knights in the Field of 68. What we saw in February is what Steve Pikiell described for the start of the season as his "best team".
Although Rutgers was riding high with confidence, it took a trip to Mackey Arena on February 20th to stop the red hot Scarlet Knights in their path. Purdue was able to pull off an 84-72 victory at home against Rutgers. Rutgers followed up its performance at Purdue with losses to Michigan (Q1, 71-62) and Wisconsin (Q1, 66-61), which put Rutgers squarely back on the bubble. Analysts across college basketball began writing off the Scarlet Knights once again, and many bracketologists actually removed Rutgers from the Field of 68.
With their backs against the wall, Rutgers knew they needed a big win at Indiana (Q1) to resurrect their NCAA Tournament hopes. Rutgers seized the opportunity and proved all the naysayers wrong as they pulled off a stunning 66-63 win on the road at Assembly Hall, one of the Big Ten's toughest environments. Rutgers has now won seven out of its last eight meetings with the Hoosiers.
This Sunday, Rutgers will battle Penn State (12-15 overall; 7-12 conference) at a sold out RAC in front of a raucous crowd. In order for Rutgers to prove they are still worthy of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, Rutgers must avoid a loss to Penn State (Q3). But make no mistake, Penn State will not go quietly into the night. The Nittany Lions are a tough basketball team, and new head coach Micah Shrewsbury will have his players playing with belief that they can win and play spoiler in New Jersey. Penn State has had some tough losses this season but some great wins, including a road win at Michigan State and an upset of #24 Iowa. Also, Penn State blasted Rutgers in Happy Valley earlier this season. A Q3 loss to Penn State would seriously damage Rutgers NCAA Tournament hopes.
Rutgers knows what is on the line: 1.) Potential at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament 2.) Possibility of finishing 4th place but no worse than 6th place in the Big Ten standings 3.) Possible double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Potential Big Ten Tournament scenarios
Currently, Rutgers is sitting in 6th place in the Big Ten standings at 11-8. Iowa and Ohio State are both 12-7 in the standings. Behind Rutgers in the standings are Michigan and Michigan state at 10-9.
If you are a Rutgers fan you will be rooting for Ohio State to lose to Michigan and for Illinois to beat Iowa. The reason why you want Ohio State and Iowa to both lose and of course hope for a Rutgers win is because Rutgers owns the tiebreak (victories over both teams) for the season, and Rutgers could ascend to 4th place, essentially giving Rutgers a double-bye for the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers has never finished in 4th place in the Big Ten and earned a double-bye.
If both Iowa and Ohio State win their games, Rutgers would finish no worse than 6th place and Rutgers would play the winner of the 11-seed vs 14-seed matchup Thursday, March 10th. Even if Iowa and Ohio State both lose, and Rutgers loses, Rutgers would still finish in 6th place ahead of Michigan and Michigan State. However, losing is not an option for Rutgers on Sunday because it would seriously damage their NCAA Tournament chances. Rutgers would then have to go on a Big Ten Tournament run to make up for the loss to Penn State.
If Rutgers were to win on Sunday, and Iowa were to lose but Ohio State wins -or- Ohio State loses and Iowa wins, Rutgers would finish in 5th place. Rutgers would then face the winner of the 12-seed vs 13-seed matchup.
(photo courtesy of Asbury Park Press)
Rutgers pays tribute to its senior class
Sunday's game against Penn State is going to be emotionally charged for the coaches, players, and fans. It is going to be a sad day yet an exciting day. Rutgers nation will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan. This will be the last time Rutgers fans will see Geo Baker in action at The RAC, and probably the last time Rutgers fans will see Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr.
Geo Baker has been the catalyst for Steve Pikiell with helping to turn around a dead Rutgers basketball program. Rutgers basketball would certainly not be where it is today if it were not for the contributions of Geo Baker. He may very well be one of the most important players in Rutgers men's basketball history.
Rutgers men's basketball was once a dead program. It was a place that most coaches wanted to avoid despite its affiliation in the Atlantic 10 Conference and the Big East Conference. Since the 1990-91 season, when Bob Wenzel led the charge and Rutgers made its last NCAA Tournament appearance, many coaches that followed were unsuccessful. Kevin Bannon followed Bob Wenzel and went 59-60. Bannon was fired in 2001. Gary Waters went 79-75, including an NIT Championship appearance in 2004. Waters resigned in 2006. Fred Hill Jr. was hired after Waters' resignation, and went 57-77 overall. Hill Jr. was fired after four seasons on The Banks. Mike Rice Jr. went 44-51 and was fired in 2013 after being embroiled in controversy for abusing his players. Rice Jr. left a stain on the Rutgers program, and players began to transfer out after Rice Jr. was fired. Rutgers turned to Eddie Jordan, a Rutgers basketball legend, to help turn around the program. However, Jordan struggled to recruit and went a dismal 29-68. Jordan oversaw the transition of Rutgers from the Big East to the American Athletic to the Big Ten. Jordan was fired in in 2016, and Rutgers was desperate to find a coach who would lead the charge of an almost impossible situation. Who would be the next coach to take over what was the worst Power 5 basketball program in the nation? In 2016, new Rutgers AD Pat Hobbs hired Steve Pikiell as head coach.
In Steve Pikiell's second season as head coach of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, things were noticeably different. Rutgers had a different energy under Pikiell. The Scarlet Knights started winning some games and play competitively in the Big Ten. Pikiell relied on his 2017 recruiting class to start making contributions in the 2017-18 season. Geo Baker was one of his primary recruits in the 2017 recruiting class. Baker was a borderline two-/three-star recruit, with offers from only a few low-major schools, when he came to The Banks, and Pikiell inserted him into the playing mix almost right away. Baker had several breakout games in the 2017-18 season. He and former Rutgers standout Corey Sanders carried Rutgers to a massive upset victory over 6-seed Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, making Rutgers the first 14-seed in Big Ten Tournament history to reach the Quarterfinals. Although Rutgers lost to #11 ranked Purdue in the Quarterfinals, it was Geo Baker who scored 25 pts and pushed the Boilermakers to the edge of a near loss. Purdue escaped with a 82-75 victory.
Geo Baker almost immediately moved to the forefront of Rutgers as its true leader after his first season. Time and time again, Baker continued to make big play after big play in the seasons that would follow. Baker was the savior for Rutgers when found itself down to Nebraska at The RAC in the 2019-20 season. Baker hit a clutch three-point shot that would lift Rutgers to a season-saving 75-72 victory. With their backs against the wall and in the last game of the season, Geo Baker carried Rutgers to an overtime victory over Purdue at Mackey Arena to deliver what would have been Rutgers first NCAA Tournament bid since the 1990-91 season if COVID-19 had not canceled the season. Throughout the 2020-21 season and current season, Baker would continuously lead the charge and guide to Rutgers to many come-from-behind improbable victories. It was Geo Baker who became almost superhuman in a massive come-from-behind rally to upset #16 Ohio State. Baker scored 25 points, but it was the final series of shots Baker that took, and incredible passing to help Rutgers win the game against the Buckeyes. Baker has been clutch in the moment when Rutgers has needed him most. It was not always about scoring points with Geo Baker, but it was the plays he made that never showed up in the stat sheets. It was the crisp passes he made to his teammates. His basketball IQ grew, and he made better decisions with the ball each year. It was the confidence boosters he gave his teammates when they felt down about missing a shot or making a bad play. He carried himself as a true ambassador of Rutgers basketball.
(video courtesy of Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media; Geo Baker throws down a thunderous dunk. The RAC goes insane. Also, check out Jerry Recco and Joe Boylan on the call for Geo's dunk, click here.)
Although Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr both have another year of eligibility remaining, it is likely they will be moving on from Rutgers. No formal announcement has been made yet by both players. Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr. have made incredible contributions to Rutgers basketball and have forever cemented their legacies in Rutgers basketball history. They were both extraordinary pioneers that helped Rutgers become a better team in college basketball.
McConnell was a consensus three-star recruit, and Harper Jr. was given a no star rating by ESPN, 247Sports, Rivals, and Scout. When these players were recruited by Steve Pikiell, fans began to wonder if Pikiell was able to recruit quality players. But little did many Rutgers fans know at the time, Pikiell loves to build and mold players. There is a certain quality about a basketball player that Pikiell and his staff love. Pikiell is not going to lure five-star one-and done kids to Rutgers because that is not what he is looking for. Pikiell knew he would get commitment and stability out of McConnell and Harper Jr. In return, Pikiell helped them become even better players than they were when they first arrived to Piscataway.
Ron Harper Jr.'s game has improved drastically since arriving in 2018, and he is now one of five finalists for the 2021-22 Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award. Caleb McConnell is now one of ten semifinalists for the 2021-22 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award and potentially the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. No one would have seen this coming from the day they arrived in the 2018-19 season. Like Baker, time and time again, we have seen incredible performance after incredible performance from these two players to help churn out tough grinding wins against the Big Ten's best. Most notably, it was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a three-pointer that gut-punched Indiana in the closing seconds of this past week's game to keep the Scarlet Knights' tournament chances alive. It was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a near mid-court heave that upset then ranked #1 Purdue. It was Ron Harper Jr. who took over many games between 2018 and 2022 that rocked the Big Ten's best. Who can forget the incredible block by Caleb McConnell in the closing minutes against Ohio State this season? McConnell's block sparked a run by Rutgers to come from 10 points down to upset the Buckeyes and secure an important Q1 win. McConnell is averaging an incredible 2.3 steals per game this season, and has nearly 30 more steals (67 steals) the Big Ten's second best steal leader Chase Audige of Northwestern!
(video courtesy of Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media. The last four minutes of Rutgers vs Ohio State. Rutgers pulls off an incredible upset from the likes of Caleb McConnell's block, and Geo Baker fueling a 10-0 run.)
There are so many special moments that these players have given us over the last 4-5 years, but as they get ready to graduate and move on from Rutgers basketball, you must remember how these young men have developed over the years into true leaders. Under the close guidance of Steve Pikiell, Brandin Knight, and Karl Hobbs, they became the true catalysts that helped saved this once faltering Rutgers basketball program. Baker, McConnell, and Harper Jr. are the reason why Rutgers fans have a reason to cheer, and why The RAC is now one of the toughest venues for opponents to play at in the country. When they leave, they will have left Rutgers basketball in a much better place.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights face one of their most difficult challenges of the season in #12 Illinois on Wednesday, February 16 (7 PM ET, BTN); however, Rutgers is riding a hot three-game winning streak after knocking off #19 Michigan State, #18 Ohio State, and #15 Wisconsin. Rutgers should have a lot of momentum going into this game. Rutgers has been the talk of the nation after its recent string of upset victories. Rutgers received 10 votes for the Associated Press Top 25 rankings and Geo Baker earned co-Big Ten Player of the Week. Once left for dead, Rutgers has resurrected its season and they find themselves square on the bubble for the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Rutgers is currently #81 in the NET rankings, #78 in the KenPom rankings, and #62 in the Sagarin ratings. These two teams met early in the season, and Rutgers was blown out in Champaign by a score of 86-51.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Defend the perimeter - Caleb McConnell has been extraordinary on defense the entire season. He has been the primary defender assigned to defend each team's best player. He has done a remarkable job and he is going to have to continue his incredible defense along the perimeter. Rutgers cannot allow Illinois to get hot beyond the arc. When Alfonso Williams, Jacob Grandison, and Trent Frazier begin heating up from deep, Illinois can be unstoppable. Rutgers' defenders will be have to be locked in and force bad shots or not allow Illinois to get good looks.
No easy baskets for Kofi Cockburn - Cliff Omoruyi and Dean Reiber are going up against one of the best centers in the Big Ten. Cockburn is a dominant player down low and he is one of Illinois' primary scorers. Where Rutgers lacks in size down low, Omoruyi and Reiber are going to have to hold their own and do everything they can to make Cockburn's life miserable. Force Cockburn to take bad shots and do not allow Illinois to easily feed the ball to him.
Rebound! Rebound! Rebound! - Rutgers was dominated on the boards by Illinois last time they met in December. If Rutgers is going to have any chance in winning this game, they have to rebound defensively and limit Illinois' second chance opportunities. On the flip side of the coin, Rutgers is going to have to try and convert second chance opportunities on the glass.
Drive the lane, draw fouls - Rutgers has done a great job in the last three games in driving the lane and pounding the rock down low. They have been able to score baskets and draw fouls. Rutgers is shooting well from the free-throw line this season, and in their last three games, Rutgers is averaging about 77% from the line. If Rutgers can get some of Illinois' key players in foul trouble, they could win this game.
The RAC needs to rock! - Rutgers' needs to keep its crowd engaged from the tip. No slow starts, and Rutgers has to stay locked in for 40 minutes. If they are able to do this, the RAC will certainly be raucous and loud the entire game making it difficult for Illinois. Just ask Ohio State after they were unable to even hear the shot clock buzzer when they visited the RAC last week.
Rutgers only has six regular season games left on the schedule before they play in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Each game is extremely important and vital to helping Rutgers continue to build its resume and its case for an at-large bid in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Below are the remaining opponents on the schedule for Rutgers with each team's net ranking in parenthesis and which quadrant they are in.
February 16 - vs Illinois (#13, Q1)
February 20 - at Purdue (#9, Q1)
February 23 - at Michigan (#36, Q1)
February 26 - vs Wisconsin (#23, Q1)
March 2 - at Indiana (#41, Q1)
March 6 - vs Penn State (#93, Q3)
Each one of Rutgers' remaining opponents are going to be extremely difficult to beat, but it can be done. Many doubted Rutgers entering the February slate after Rutgers lost a heartbreaker to Northwestern 79-78, which dropped Rutgers to 12-9 overall and 6-5 in the conference. Since the loss to Northwestern, Rutgers has reeled off three impressive victories over #19 Michigan State, #18 Ohio State, and #15 Wisconsin, all which are Q1 wins. Rutgers has improved its NET ranking drastically and has notched three more Quad 1 wins to improve its Quad 1 record to 6-3. Rutgers was selected by ESPN as the National Team of the Week; Andy Katz proclaimed Rutgers as his Team of the Week; and Geo Baker was named Co-Big Ten Player of the Week.
So what was the turning point of the Rutgers season that fueled three impressive victories in a row?
That question can be answered by Rutgers' unrelenting fight in the second half against Northwestern. Rutgers was down by at least 24 points in the second half, but somehow, Rutgers was able to claw their way back into the game and force overtime. Coach Steve Pikiell decided to change things up defensively and offensively in the second half, and his adjustments were a thing of beauty. Paul Mulcahy scored a career high 31 points and had 7 assists, while Cliff Omoruyi scored 22 points and had 6 rebounds. Despite the loss, Rutgers learned more about themselves and what they needed to do to win games and play better defensively when the gauntlet approached.
After winning against three ranked opponents in a row, Rutgers finds itself on the cusp of possibly earning an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Right now, Rutgers remains on the bubble but they can improve their tournament resume by winning three more games in its next six.
Rutgers best opportunity to win three more games are probably at home but do not count this Rutgers team out on the road despite their 3-7 road record. Rutgers recently visited the Kohl Center, a place Rutgers has struggled mightily since joining the Big Ten, and went pound-for-pound with Wisconsin in a stunning 73-65 victory.
Rutgers has owned the State of Indiana lately. Rutgers is 7-0 against Indiana and Purdue combined in the last two seasons. Last time Rutgers played Purdue at Mackey Arena was in the 2019-2020 season, where Rutgers came away with a crucial 71-68 overtime win. Rutgers beat Indiana three times in the 2020-2021 season, including a 74-70 win at Assembly Hall. Rutgers edged previously #1 ranked Purdue this season at the RAC 70-68. Purdue and Indiana will be frothing at their mouths hungry for revenge and will be looking to end Rutgers' winning streak in the state of Indiana.
If Rutgers can win its three remaining home games against Illinois, Wisconsin, and Penn State and snag a road victory against either Indiana, Purdue, or Michigan, Rutgers should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Whether they earn a decent seed would be the question that remains. They are likely looking at an 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
