Preview & Keys to the Game: Bucknell at Rutgers (December 23, 2022)

 

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

Bucknell (7-5) at Rutgers (7-4, 1-1)

After the 81-57 demolition of Wake Forest this past Saturday, Rutgers will prepare for its upcoming showdown with Bucknell at The RAC on Friday, December 23^rd (5 PM, BTN). This will be the 31st ever meeting between Rutgers and Bucknell with the Scarlet Knights leading the series 22-8. The series between the schools dates back to 1941. The last time both teams met on the hardwood was in November 2000 with Rutgers winning 78-48.

Bucknell enters this contest with a NET ranking of 224 and will be a Q4 opponent for Rutgers. This is a game the Scarlet Knights need to win to avoid any catastrophic damage to their tournament resume. Rutgers is currently 4-0 against Q4 opponents so far this season. Rutgers is currently ranked 39 in the NET. Rutgers has done a fantastic job putting away Q4 competition all season long and are beating Q4 ranked teams by an average of 35.5 points.

Statistically, Bucknell is led by their point guard Xander Rice, a new Jersey native and son of Monmouth head coach King Rice. Xander Rice is averaging 15.9 ppg, 4.3 apg, and 1.2 spg. Bucknell has several 3PT shooters with hot hands from deep. As a team, the Bison are shooting a very respectable 40% from 3PT range and are 7th in the nation for 3PT percentage. Xander Rice, Elvin Demonds, and Ian Motta are the trio that take a big bulk of 3PT shots. Bucknell is not a strong defensive team, but they can rebound defensively very well. Bucknell does not force a lot of turnovers on the defensive end and allows their opponents to shoot from deep.

Bucknell's Last Three Games:

12/21 - at Richmond (147, Q3), L 81-71
12/18 - vs Merrimack (357, Q4), W 61-55
12/6 - at LaSalle (307, Q4), L 82-72

KEYS TO THE GAME

No sleepwalking - Rutgers showed everyone every reason why they are still a very good basketball team after the Scarlet Knights crushed Wake Forest 81-57 last week. Rutgers must show up with the same intensity when they play Bucknell and put away the Bison early. Rutgers must play fluid on offense, set screens, create open space to shoot, and drive the lane to draw fouls. On defense, Rutgers must continue to battle in the trenches and do what it does best by forcing turnovers and force bad shots. The RAC must do its part and make the environment loud.

Defend the perimeter - The Bucknell Bison are a dangerous team when shooting from 3PT range. They are shooting a respectable 40% from deep, and are ranked 5th in the country in 3PT percentage. However, Rutgers is one of the best teams in the country in defending the perimeter. Rutgers is ranked within the top 5 in defending against 3PT range. Rutgers must continue to impose its will and make it difficult for Bucknell to shoot from deep.

Force turnovers, score points - Rutgers did a great job forcing Wake Forest to commit 22 turnovers last week. Like Wake Forest, Bucknell is another team that commits a lot of turnovers. If Rutgers can force turnovers it creates scoring opportunities on the fast break. 

Get Cliff involved early - Rutgers has to get Cliff Omoruyi going early in this game. Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell have to feed the ball to Cliff down low to get him going but it won't be entirely on them. Cliff is going to have to find a way to get himself in good position to score. If Cliff can get going early down low, it will draw Bucknell defenders to him and create other open looks for other Rutgers players on the floor.

Finish around the rim - Rutgers did a great job finishing around the rim last week against Wake Forest, which is good because the Scarlet Knights entering that game were poor in finishing layups and shooting from close range. Rutgers needs to convert its layups and make its close shots around the rim. Even if Rutgers does miss an occasional layup or close shot, Rutgers is one of the best teams in the country in grabbing offensive rebounds and possibly creating second chance opportunities.

Identify key players and shut them down - In tonight's preview, we mentioned Xander Rice is one of Bucknell's top players, and it's likely Caleb McConnell will receive the assignment of defending him. If McConnell can shut down Xander Rice, it's going to be a long painful night for Bucknell. Also, Cliff Omoruyi may have a difficult assignment in guarding Andre Screen. Screen is averaging 11.5 ppg and is nabbing 6.2 rpg. Cliff is going to have to get physical in the trenches and out tough Screen.

Keys to the Game: Columbia at Rutgers (November 7, 2022)

 

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

Columbia at Rutgers

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will tip off tomorrow night at The RAC in their opening game of the 2022-23 season against the Ivy League's Columbia Lions (7 PM ET, BTN+). Columbia leads the all-time series 25-24. The last time both teams faced each other was in 2018 when the Scarlet Knights pulled off a 68-65 victory at The RAC.

Fans, there will be a new-look Rutgers team on the floor tomorrow night, and the Scarlet Knights will rely heavily on the experience of their three captains, Paul Mulcahy, Caleb McConnell, and Cliff Omoruyi; however, this calls for other rotational players to step up and takeover big roles. There are questions that remain including how will this Rutgers team operate offensively without the big production from previous studs Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr.? How will this Rutgers team look defensively? Can Rutgers close out opponents and win down the stretch? Can this Rutgers team prevent themselves from going on long scoring droughts during games? While it's a long season and there is more that remains to be seen, expect Coach Steve Pikiell to test out different rotations, schemes, and game adjustments to have a sense of where his team is early in the season. Coach Pikiell may even use the first game of the season against Columbia as a test for certain rotational players.

Last season, Columbia finished 4-22 overall, 1-13 in Ivy League play with a final NET ranking of 351. Not much has changed in the off season for the Lions, but coach Jim Engles expects his team to be improved. Heading into this game, Columbia will be a Q4 opponent for the Scarlet Knights, and this is a game they are heavily favored to win.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. No sluggish starts - Rutgers has to get off to a fast start by scoring points and forcing turnovers early on. Rutgers has to look for good shots by pounding the paint and driving the lane. The Scarlet Knights must avoid forcing bad shots and unnecessary turnovers. If the Scarlet Knights can get off to a fast start and build a comfortable lead, it should help themselves build confidence. You do not want a lowly rated team like Columbia hanging around for 40 minutes. 
2. Shut down De La Rosa and Murphy - Columbia returns two quality players on their roster, Rubio De La Rosa and Liam Murphy, both who averaged more than 12 ppg. It is expected De La Rosa and Murphy will get most of the looks for the Lions and take most of their shots. Rutgers must shut them down early by not allowing good looks and turn up the pressure to force turnovers. If Rutgers can shut down De La Rosa and Murphy, it will be a long night for Columbia.
3. Feed the beast - It's pretty simple. Feed Cliff Omoruyi the ball and let him go to work down low. Omoruyi led the nation in dunks last season and he has improved his mid-range jumper in the off-season. Fans should expect Omoruyi to dominate in this game.
4. Rebound! Rebound! Rebound! - Rutgers needs to get down in the trenches and win the battle of the boards. If Rutgers can win the battle of the boards it will limit Columbia's second chance opportunities.
5. Spencer and Simpson - Cam Spencer and Derek Simpson are likely to see significant minutes in tomorrow's game, and if both players can get going offensively and heat up, Rutgers should run away from Columbia comfortably.

2022-23 keys to the season and predictions

 

photo courtesy of Rutgers Athletics

The 2022-23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights college basketball season starts on Monday!

Check out RHI's 2022-23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights season preview

Ahh, the college basketball season is upon us, and that means the 2022-23 season tips off next week for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (vs Columbia, Monday, November 7th at 7 PM ET, BTN+). The Scarlet Knights will be looking to replicate the success they had last season and hope they can earn their third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament, something this program has never achieved. But without their big playmakers Geo Baker (graduated) and Ron Harper Jr. (NBA), both who have moved on from the program, can the Scarlet Knights find ways to score down the stretch, make clutch shots in pressure situations, and win big games?

The Scarlet Knights return three key players including preseason All-Big Ten player Cliff Omoruyi, arguably one of the best centers in the conference and maybe in college basketball, assist leader Paul Mulcahy, and 2021-22 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Caleb McConnell. Behind their top three players Rutgers also returns key contributors including Aundre Hyatt, Mawot Mag, Jalen Miller, Dean Reiber, and Oskar Palmquist. In the offseason, Coach Steve Pikiell and his staff were able to nab one of the Patriot League's top scorers Cam Spencer (Loyola) from the transfer portal and recruit three quality high school players in Derek Simpson, Antonio Chol, and Antwone Woolfolk.

Many analysts across college basketball believe the Big Ten is wide open this season, and the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most experienced in the conference. The Scarlet Knights will try to use their experience to their advantage when taking on the Big Ten's best. But the key for the Scarlet Knights to have success this season will have to be contributions from everyone on the team. Each player is going to have step up and take over new roles to fill the void left by Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr.

It should be noted the Big Ten media selected the Scarlet Knights to finish 8th in the conference this season.

KEYS TO A SUCCESSFUL SEASON

• Take care of business early - Rutgers has to get off to a fast, good start to the early part of the season. Their first three opponents (Columbia, Sacred Heart, and UMass-Lowell) are likely to be Q4 opponents, and Rutgers has to shut them down quickly and keep them out of the game. Rutgers must avoid any early losses, especially to low-rated teams. Last year, Rutgers' season was on life support after suffering three early non-conference losses in a row to DePaul, UMass, and Lafayette. Not only did they suffer those three terrible losses, but the Scarlet Knights needed overtime to overcome Lehigh and a second half run to pull away from Merrimack at the beginning of last season. Rutgers must avoid a sluggish start to the season and take care of business early. If they can get off to a good start, the Scarlet Knights should be ready for their first real test of the season will be on November 18th when they face off against Temple at the Mohegan Sun.

• Avoid bad losses - We talked about how important it is for Rutgers to get off to a good start immediately at the start of the season but the Scarlet Knights must avoid any bad losses throughout the season. Last year, the Scarlet Knights' season was littered with many quality wins but with many bad losses. The NCAA Tournament Committee will likely not be as kind as they were to Rutgers last season if the Scarlet Knights suffer any bad losses. This means the Scarlet Knights should finish no worse than 9-2 in the non-conference portion of the schedule but without any Q3 or Q4 losses. Rutgers must also beat the teams they are expected to beat (Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota).

• Avoid injuries - Rutgers must avoid the injury bug. Over the course of the last couple of seasons, Rutgers fans have witnessed the Scarlet Knights without key players for big games, and sometimes the results were not in their favor. Rutgers will already likely be without Caleb McConnell for Rutgers' opening game against Columbia. Rutgers has to stay healthy throughout the season and will need contributions from everyone on the team.

• Play smart basketball from the jump - All too often we have seen the Scarlet Knights get off to slow starts against their opponents, and force bad shots or go through long stretches in games where they are ice cold from the field. Rutgers has to work hard for good looks and take good shots. Drive the ball down low for high percentage shots and pound the paint to draw fouls to get to the line. This year's team does not look like the type of team that is built to come from behind by many points. Rutgers relied all too often on Herculean efforts from Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. to rally the team from behind large deficits to win games. Playing smart basketball also means, they must avoid committing too many fouls and getting into foul trouble. If Cliff Omoruyi gets into foul trouble early, who is going to step up and fill his role? Also, playing smart basketball means avoiding unnecessary turnovers. Last season, Rutgers committed way too many turnovers allowing other teams opportunities to score points and go on runs.

• Use The RAC to your advantage - Rutgers boasts an incredible home record of 42-8 since the 2019 season making it very difficult for its opponents to win against the Scarlet Knights at The RAC. Many of the games have already been listed as sold out and the fans are going to be in a frenzy because they believe in this team. Rutgers has to feed off the energy of the crowd and deliver a knockout punch to its opponents that take on the Scarlet Knights in Piscataway. The RAC is truly one of the most underrated college basketball homecourt advantages in the country.

If Rutgers can accomplish these five keys throughout the season, the Scarlet Knights should expect to be dancing in March once again. Despite analysts across the college hoops world saying the Big Ten will be down this season, that still doesn't mean the Big Ten will not be tough. The Big Ten will always be a grind, and will always have highly-rated quality basketball teams. Rutgers will have to be ready to battle each and every night to prove it is a contender in the conference and can make the dreams of another NCAA Tournament. Rutgers should finish in the top of half of the conference once again. PROJECTION: Rutgers finishes 21-10 overall, 12-8 in conference; earns 10-seed bid to the NCAA Tournament.

ADDITIONAL RUTGERS SEASON PREVIEWS:

• Aaron Breitman (The Scarlet Faithful) - "Rutgers men's basketball season preview & predictions" - Click here to read
• Aaron Breitman (The Scarlet Faithful) - The Scarlet Faithful Podcast, Episode 33, Rutgers men's basketball preview with Jerry Carino - Click here to listen
• Brian Fonseca (NJ Advance Media) - "Rutgers basketball season preview: New-look Scarlet Knights pursue historic NCAA Tournament 3-peat" - Click here to read
• Bobby Deren (Scarlet Nation) - Scarlet Nation Podcast, Episode 109, What did we learn in Rutgers hoops' exhibition win? - Click here to listen
• Declan Walsh (Sports Illustrated) - "How Rutgers reemerged as having one of college basketball's greatest venues" - Click here to read

2023 KenPom ratings released, rating for each opponent

 

(photo courtesy of Rutgers Athletics)

The 2023 KenPom Ratings were released just over a week ago, and we have the ratings for each of the Scarlet Knights' opponents this coming season

The 2022-23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights men's college basketball season is only 14 days away, and the Ken Pomeroy Ratings were recently released for the upcoming season. This is the time of year college basketball fanatics and data analysts start crunching numbers and making predictions for the upcoming season. In the words of creator Ken Pomeroy, “[t]he purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors.” Without going too far down the rabbit hole, his ranking system incorporates statistics like shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, ultimately calculating offensive, defensive, and overall “efficiency” numbers for all teams in Division I. For a detailed description of Ken Pomeroy's ratings, visit kenpom.com.

This year's KenPom Ratings have rated the Scarlet Knights at 50. Ole Miss (SEC) comes in at 49 and Cincinnati (American) follows Rutgers at 51. The latest KenPom Ratings project Rutgers to finish 19-12 overall, 10-10 in the Big Ten.

Here are the KenPom Ratings for each team on the Scarlet Knights' schedule:

Nov. 7, Columbia* (316)

Nov. 10, Sacred Heart* (304)

Nov. 12, UMass-Lowell* (170)

Nov. 18, vs Temple* (92)

Nov. 22, Rider* (186)

Nov. 26, Central Conn. State* (333)

Nov. 30, at Miami* (42)

Dec. 3, Indiana (12)

Dec. 8, at Ohio State (32)

Dec. 11, Seton Hall* (48)

Dec. 17, Wake Forest* (80)

Dec. 23, Bucknell* (283)

Dec. 30, Coppin State* (315)

Jan. 2, at Purdue (25)

Jan. 5, Maryland (56)

Jan. 8, Iowa (23)

Jan. 11, at Northwestern (70)

Jan. 15, Ohio State (32)

Jan. 19, at Michigan State (31)

Jan. 24, Penn State (46)

Jan. 29, at Iowa (23)

Feb. 1, Minnesota (109)

Feb. 4, vs Michigan State (31)

Feb. 7, at Indiana (12)

Feb. 11, at Illinois (33)

Feb. 14, Nebraska (108)

Feb. 18, at Wisconsin (55)

Feb. 23, Michigan (26)

Feb. 26, at Penn State (46)

Mar. 2, at Minnesota (109)

Mar. 5, Northwestern (70)

* non-conference game

Keys to the Game: Rutgers vs Notre Dame (March 16, 2022)

(photo courtesy of Sporting News)

11 Rutgers (18-13; 12-8) vs. 11 Notre Dame (22-10; 15-5)

NCAA Tournament First Four

Rutgers Scarlet Knights fans, players, and coaches alike can finally breathe a sigh of relief. Rutgers has made back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances for the first time since the 1970s. This is the Scarlet Knights' eighth appearance overall in the NCAA Tournament. After sweating it out for 48 hours from Friday evening to Sunday evening, Rutgers' name was called in the Field of 68, and they were selected as an 11-seed to take on the 11-seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (22-10; 15-5) in the First Four Game in Dayton, OH (approx. 9:15 PM; TruTV). The winner of this game will meet the 6-seed Alabama Crimson Tide (19-13; 9-9) on Friday in San Diego (approx. 4:15 PM; TNT).

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are an intriguing team, and are a bit different than many of the opponents Rutgers has faced this season. Many writers and analysts across college basketball have mentioned the Fighting Irish lack physicality and athleticism, but have a pretty efficient offense. Fred Gaudios, a writer for the Rutgers SB Nation web site On The Banks, has compared Notre Dame to the Ohio State Buckeyes, an opponent Rutgers has beaten earlier this season. Gaudios compared Ohio State's and Notre Dame's offensive and defensive numbers statistically, and both are appear to very similar (please click here to read Fred Gaudios' article). Despite Notre Dame's lack of physicality and athleticism, Notre Dame does have a few playmakers that will step up and keep the Fighting Irish in the game. If the Fighting Irish get their offense going like a fine tuned oiled machine, Rutgers could be in for serious trouble. 

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI) compared Rutgers' tournament resume to other bubble teams, and a few things stand out between both teams resume-wise and statistically:

• Notre Dame has marquee wins over solid opponents, including Kentucky, Miami, and North Carolina. However, Rutgers has more marquee wins, including Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illiniois, and Indiana.
• Rutgers was rated the most erratic team in the country this year, according to Erik Haslam.
• Notre Dame and Rutgers share victories over Clemson. Notre Dame lost to Indiana while Rutgers beat the Hoosiers.
• Notre Dame is a combined 2-7 against Top 40 NET ranked teams, while Rutgers is 8-6.
• Notre Dame is rated 29th in offensive efficiency, while Rutgers is ranked 107th.
• Notre Dame is rated 84th in defensive efficiency, while Rutgers is ranked 43rd.
• Notre Dame is 19th nationally shooting the ball from deep, while Rutgers is 197th.
• Notre Dame is disciplined and commits less fouls than Rutgers. Rutgers commits a lot of fouls.
• Both teams are good at limiting turnovers.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Defend the perimeter - It seems like every basketball game RHI mention's the Scarlet Knights must defend the perimeter, but it is absolutely true! In today's modern era college basketball, you live by the three, and you die by the three. Rutgers has faced so many quality opponents this year that are very good a shooting from deep, and many of their opponents have hit back-breaking three-point shots. Notre Dame is a team that loves to shoot from deep. Rutgers is going to have to defend the perimeter like no other. The Fighting Irish are 14-1 when they make 10+ three-point shots in a game. That is a glaring statistic that stands out and Rutgers has to limit any good looks for the Fighting Irish from deep. Nate Laszewski and Dane Goodwin are the Fighting Irish's primary threats from deep. Both are shooting a combined 45% from deep.
2. Pound the rock - Rutgers is at its best when they pound the rock inside. Notre Dame is not a very physical team down low, and Rutgers must keep feeding the ball to Ron Harper Jr. and Cliff Omoruyi down low if they want to have any success. If that option is not available, look for Geo Baker and Paul Mulcahy to drive the lane and force the issue.
3. No slow starts, find good looks, and do not get cold from the field - Rutgers is really good at scoring when they can distribute the ball quickly during fast break situations but Notre Dame is the type of team that wants to limit fast breaks and slow down the tempo of the game. The Scarlet Knights must try to find ways to get good looks at the basket, and not force any bad shots, especially bad shots from deep. Many times during the season, Rutgers finds itself down by a few points, and they start forcing bad shots to get themselves back in the game. Then Rutgers goes on a scoring drought and their opponents take advantage and build leads. Rutgers wants to get off to a good start in this game and not find themselves down by double-digits early. All too often we have seen this team fall behind by double-digits, and Rutgers has to find ways to claw and scratch to get themselves back in the game. Sometimes Rutgers has been successful in coming from behind to win or they have been unsuccessful. Overall, it is a good idea they work for good shots and not fall behind by double-digits.
4. Remain disciplined - Notre Dame is a very good free-throw shooting team. They average about 76 percent from the line, and if Rutgers commits too many fouls, you can bet that Notre Dame will take advantage and hit their free-throws. This past Friday, when Rutgers faced Iowa, Rutgers committed way too many fouls and the Hawkeyes were able to take advantage by going 25 of 27 from the line. That easily tells you Rutgers committed way too many fouls. Rutgers gifted Iowa 25 points from the line by committing 24 fouls. Rutgers also has to be smart and not commit technical fouls. Technical fouls are game changers and momentum killers. Not only does Rutgers' players have to remain mentally focused and disciplined, but Rutgers' bench must be smart. The Scarlet Knights' strength training coach was T'd up twice on Friday and ejected. That is not smart basketball. We all know emotions are riding on this tournament game, but this is a group of experienced players and Rutgers must be disciplined.
5. Play physical and aggressive basketball - Notre Dame is not a physical team. They do not play aggressive basketball. Rutgers is the complete opposite. Rutgers is a very physical and aggressive team. Rutgers has to continue doing what they do best and that is play tough, physical defense and remain aggressive on the boards. Notre Dame is not a good rebounding team, and Rutgers must take advantage. If Rutgers can play clean, tough physical basketball and stay aggressive on the boards, Rutgers will be successful in this game. Look for Harper Jr. to matchup with Paul Atkinson Jr. (12.3 ppg) and Big Ten DPOY Caleb McConnell to guard Blake Wesley (14.6 ppg). 

ADDITIONAL RUTGERS TOURNAMENT COVERAGE:

• Fred Gaudios, On the Banks - "Rutgers has beaten a Big Ten foe with similar profile to Notre Dame" - (Click here to read)
• Aaron Breitman, On the Banks - "NCAA Tournament First Four Game Preview: No. 11 Rutgers vs No. 11 Notre Dame" - (Click here to read)
• Aaron Breitman, On the Banks - "On the Banks Podcast: NCAA Tournament Preview Episode" - (Click here to listen)
• Jerry Carino, Asbury Park Press - "Rutgers basketball: Ace recruit Derek Simpson fired up for March Madness" - (Click here to read)
• Dave White, On the Banks - "Unfinished Business: 4 Thoughts on Rutgers NCAA Bid" - (Click here to read)