Where is Rutgers currently projected for 2022 NCAA Tournament?
After an historic four-game winning streak against four ranked opponents and two critical wins during the month of February and early March at the end of the regular season, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (18-12; 12-8) find themselves as a 4-seed heading into the Big Ten Tournament. But, will this be enough for the Scarlet Knights to receive another at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament? Many bracketologists and analysts across college basketball believe it is enough for Rutgers to make the NCAA Tournament.
Currently, the Scarlet Knights are ranked #76 in the NET Rankings, #73 in the KenPom ratings, and #59 in the Sagarin Ratings. Despite Rutgers being #76 in the NET, analysts and fans across the country believe Rutgers has broken the system. The NET is a tool the NCAA Tournament Committee uses to evaluate teams worthy of a shot at an at-large bid into the tournament. Rutgers is currently 6-5 against Q1 opponents; 3-4 against Q2 opponents; 4-2 against Q3 opponents; and 5-1 against Q4 opponents. Rutgers has a solid record against Q1 opponents and they have more Q1 wins than many other teams projected to make the tournament, including Houston who is #5 in the NET with only one Q1 win.
Brad Wachtel, of Facts and Bracks, stated on Twitter: "As of today, Rutgers (76 NET) is still considered a Q3 "bad loss" for Wisconsin and Indiana. I think the NET needs some offseason tweaking." Analysts and fans across the country share the same frustration, and believe the NET needs to be fixed. Despite a bad Q4 loss to Lafayette, Rutgers has beaten some of the best teams in the country this season, and it's almost as if the Q4 loss is weighing them down. A loss to Rutgers for Wisconsin and Indiana should not show up a stain on their resumes because the Scarlet Knights are actually a very good team, finishing fourth in the Big Ten regular season standings.
Rutgers is a solid team, with a few bruises on its resume, but they have turned it around and are now on the cusp of receiving a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers awaits the winner of 5-seed Iowa vs 12-seed Northwestern/13-seed Nebraska on Friday, March 11th (2 PM, BTN). If Rutgers were to face Iowa (Q1) on Friday, a loss would not hurt their standing; however, if Rutgers faces either Northwestern (Q2) or Nebraska (Q3) and lose, a loss could be potentially damaging to their NCAA Tournament chances.
According to Bracket Matrix as of 7 March, Rutgers is currently projected to make the Field of 68 in at least 103 brackets out of 132.
Popular bracketologists like Joe Lunardi of ESPN (rated 55 on Bracket Matrix) have Rutgers in the field as a 10-seed. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports (rated 100 on Bracket Matrix) has Rutgers in as a 12-seed and playing in Dayton as one of the "Last Four In". Mike Decourcy of Fox Sports (rated 20 on Bracket Matrix) has Rutgers in as an 11-seed. Brad Wachtel of Facts and Bracks (rated 15 on Bracket Matrix) has Rutgers in the field as a 12-seed playing in the "Last Four In". Many other bracketologists on Bracket Matrix have either projected Rutgers as a 12-seed or 11-seed (mean average of a 12-seed).
For more bracketology projections please visit BracketMatrix.com by clicking here.
(photo courtesy of Andrew Mills of NJ Advance Media)
Rutgers beats Penn State, while both Ohio State and Iowa lose giving the Scarlet Knights a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament
It wasn't easy and it wasn't pretty, but the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (18-12; 12-8) found a way to win against their rival the Penn State Nittany Lions (12-16; 7-13), and continue their historic run at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Victories under Steve Pikiell are never pretty, and that's because he likes to win ugly. Aaron Breitman, managing editor of On The Banks, stated "Rutgers wins on Senior Day with perfect ending". Breitman alluded to Rutgers winning with a "perfect ending" because once again, the Scarlet Knights overcame adversity and defied all odds.
A lot of emotion was swirling around before and after the game because it was Senior Day at The RAC. This was the last time Rutgers nation got to see Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., and Caleb McConnell suit up in action at The RAC. Hours before tip-off, as reported by Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media, students waited in long lines for student tickets to see this trio play one last time. Just hours before tip-off, Rutgers cheap seats were listed for over $300 each on StubHub. After all was said and done, The RAC was packed to the gills (official attendance of 8,399) to send-off these Rutgers legends one last time in superb fashion.
Once again, the Scarlet Knights were under immense pressure to win their last game of the regular season against Penn State. There were three main things that hung in the balance and why it was necessary for Rutgers to beat Penn State:
A must-win against Penn State (Q3). A loss to Penn State would have likely ended Rutgers chances of receiving an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament.
A chance for 4th place in the Big Ten final regular season standings. Since joining the league Rutgers has never finished in 4th place in the conference. From 2015 to 2018, Rutgers finished at the bottom in 14th place. In 2019, Rutgers finished in 12th place. In 2020, Rutgers finished in 8th place. Last season, Rutgers finished 7th place.
A chance to lock up a double-bye. With a victory and fortunes on their side (losses for Ohio State and Iowa), Rutgers was able to secure 4th place and receive a double-bye in the Big Ten Conference tournament. This is the first time in Rutgers basketball history they have been able to receive a double-bye.
After being written off many times by the media and fans, this Rutgers team found a way to persevere. They played with great mental focus, toughness, and tenacity against Penn State. There was no way this team was going to lay down and let Penn State trounce them like they did earlier in the season.
Rutgers can rest easy for almost the entirety of the week, as they will await the winner of Iowa vs Northwestern/Nebraska on Friday, March 11th (2 PM, BTN). Sure, Rutgers will have some intense practices leading up to the conference tournament and some time off to relax, but the Scarlet Knights must not forget what got them to a 4-seed. It was their will to never let up, and never quit. Rutgers has a serious chance at making an appearance in the Big Ten Tournament Championship, and possibly winning the entire conference tournament. As it stands, Rutgers is at +2300 odds to win the Big Ten Tournament, according to Circa Sports.
As spectators and analysts of college basketball, we are seeing one of the most amazing runs from a college basketball team that you might not see for years to come. This team barely had a pulse after losing to Lafayette and Massachusetts earlier in the season, but the Scarlet Knights fought hard and defied the odds. Their relentless hard work, never quit attitude, and will to fight kept them afloat and eventually catapulted them into the top four of the Big Ten conference, and most importantly of all, a shot at an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will host the Penn State Nittany Lions at The RAC on Sunday, March 6th (12 PM ET, BTN) in what appears to be its most important game of the regular season. The Scarlet Knights have a lot to play for on Sunday, including a possible at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament; seeding in the Big Ten tournament; and for Baker, Harper, and McConnell to win one last time at The RAC. It is going to be a day full of emotion as Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., and Caleb McConnell will play at The RAC one last time. This trio has had incredible careers at Rutgers, and nothing would be more suitable than to beat Penn State and cement a berth into the NCAA Tournament.
If all goes to plan, and the Scarlet Knights win, they would finish with a conference record of 12-8, which would be their best finish since joining the Big Ten. There is potential for Rutgers to finish fourth place in the conference, but Rutgers can finish no worse than sixth. Before the season started, analysts and writers in college basketball projected Rutgers to finish in eighth place.
Tomorrow's game is an absolute must-win for the Scarlet Knights because they have to avoid a Q3 loss, which would seriously damage their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. Micah Shrewsbury will have his players ready to battle tomorrow, and he hopes to spoil the Scarlet Knights season.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Rebound! Rebound! Rebound! - Last time these two met, Penn State was plus-8 on the boards. The Nittany Lions outrebounded Rutgers 41-33. The Nittany Lions were able to get 13 offensive rebounds which led to many second chance points. John Harrar (6) and Greg Lee (12) combined for 18 rebounds in their last meeting. Rutgers is going to have to get aggressive and physical with rebounding. Cliff Omoruyi and Ron Harper Jr. are going to have to physical in the trenches and fight for every rebound as well as every loose ball.
No slow starts - Rutgers cannot afford to get off to a slow start. Last time these two met, Rutgers started very slow and Penn State went on a run to stretch their lead from 6-4 to 18-6. Rutgers was never able to catch up and they trailed 27-19 at halftime. Rutgers tried to battle back in the second half, but they fell apart around the 8 minute mark and Penn State pulled away to win by 17. Rutgers needs to dictate the tempo of the game and work for good looks to take good shots. Rutgers must avoid forcing any shots if it isn't a good look.
Defend the perimeter - Penn State is not a great three point shooting team, but they will look for Seth Lundy, Sam Sessoms, and Dallion Johnson are their best shooters from deep. If anyone of them heats up, Rutgers could be in for some serious trouble. Rutgers has to continue to defend the perimeter and play swarming defense. Look for John Harrar to set a high action ball screen to setup a shot from deep from one of the three players mentioned above. Rutgers must avoid the high screen.
Pound the rock - Ron Harper Jr. and Paul Mulcahy are at their best when they drive the lane and pound the rock. If they can continue to attack the rim, score points, and draw fouls, Rutgers will be successful. Both players are good free-throw shooters. Also, look for Rutgers' guards Geo Baker and Paul Mulcahy to feed the rock to Cliff Omoruyi down low.
Find your playmakers - If Rutgers wants to win this game on Sunday, they have to find their playmakers. On offense, Rutgers has to find a way to get the ball in the hands of Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker, and Cliff Omoruyi. On defense, look for Caleb McConnell to disrupt Penn State's offense by forcing turnovers and steals. If Rutgers can force turnovers and steals, they must move the ball quick in transition to catch Penn State off guard.
Keep your composure, stay disciplined - Paul Mulcahy has been playing a bit wild lately, and he was recently ejected from the game against Indiana. Mulcahy has to play smart basketball and keep his composure. Penn State is going to try and frustrate him, and he cannot allow himself to get frustrated. Mulcahy also has to take good shots and make good passes. In his last several games, Mulcahy made mistakes he normally does not make. He committed several unforced turnovers with bad passes and several bad offensive fouls. Rutgers loves to play physical defense but they will have to stay disciplined. They commit fouls. A lot of fouls. They are going to have to keep their playmakers out of foul trouble at all costs.
Rutgers hosts Penn State in a massive regular season finale with its NCAA Tournament hopes on the line; fans pay tribute to its seniors
After an exuberant 66-63 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers this past Wednesday, the Scarlet Knights immediately turned their attention and focus to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Rutgers hosts Penn State this Sunday, March 6th (12 PM ET, BTN) at The RAC its in regular season finale. It will be a very emotional and exciting day with a lot on the line. The Scarlet Knights and their fans will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan, one last time as they try to defeat the Nittany Lions to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. A win against Penn State will almost guarantee Rutgers an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Also, a chance at a double-bye or better a seed for the Big Ten Tournament will be on the line. Sunday's game against Penn State might arguably be the biggest Senior Day game in Rutgers Scarlet Knights basketball history.
(photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media)
How did Rutgers get here? And what is on the line?
The Scarlet Knights (17-12 overall; 11-8 conference) are in a must-win situation coming into the game against Penn State on Sunday. Rutgers is currently sitting at #75 in the NET Rankings (Q1 6-5; Q2 3-4; Q3 3-2; Q4 5-1). With a victory over Penn State (Q3), Rutgers has a chance to slightly boost its NET Ranking. The NET Rankings is a tool with different metrics involved the NCAA Tournament Committee uses to evaluate teams. There has been a lot of criticism of the NET Rankings by Rutgers fans this year because no one quite understands the metrics involved with the NET, but any bracketologist will tell you that the Committee values the NET, and Rutgers needs to improve its NET Ranking for a shot at the tournament.
Earlier in the season, Rutgers had a fluke Q4 loss to NET-ranked #319 Lafayette (53-51) followed by a terrible Q3 loss to NET-ranked #191 Massachusetts (85-83). Both losses have been defined as 'very bad losses' and have prevented Rutgers from ascending in the rankings, despite six incredible Q1 victories, and kept the Scarlet Knights square on the bubble. There have been many highs and lows with Rutgers this season. Aside from the poor losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers lost to the bottom four teams in the Big Ten, including Maryland (Q3, 68-60), Penn State (Q2, 66-49), Minnesota (Q2, 68-65), and Northwestern (Q2, 79-78). Rutgers was also blown out in December by Illinois (Q1, 85-51) and Seton Hall (Q1, 77-63). Rutgers was able to filter in some quality wins in December and January, including victories over then AP Top 25 ranked #1 Purdue (Q1, 70-68), Iowa (Q1, 48-46), Michigan (Q1, 75-67) and Maryland (Q2, 70-59). By the end of January, the outlook for Rutgers to make the NCAA Tournament was bleak.
However, through all of the criticism and negativity, Rutgers awoke and found their identity in February. They found their identity in the second half of a close loss to Northwestern. Credit Steve Pikiell for making adjustments, and his team responded. They started playing with intensity, toughness, and chemistry, major qualities of a typical Steve Pikiell team. These were the missing ingredients earlier in the season, and Rutgers somehow figured it out. Their incredible effort from the Northwestern game transpired over in their next four games. If you asked any analyst or fan if Rutgers was going to survive the February gauntlet, most would have told you Rutgers does not stand a chance. The Scarlet Knights were essentially left for dead.
So when the February gauntlet arrived, Rutgers battled through adversity, and were able to reel off four historic Q1 wins in a row, beating the Big Ten's top tier teams. Rutgers became the first unranked team in college basketball history to defeat four ranked opponents in a row. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State (84-63); avenged Illinois (70-59); beat Wisconsin on the road (73-65); and came from behind to defeat Ohio State (66-64). Analysts across the college basketball world took notice of Rutgers and their incredible accomplishment. ESPN and Andy Katz declared Rutgers as the National Team of the Week. Rutgers found themselves near the top of the Big Ten standings, and bracketologists across the country began placing the Scarlet Knights in the Field of 68. What we saw in February is what Steve Pikiell described for the start of the season as his "best team".
Although Rutgers was riding high with confidence, it took a trip to Mackey Arena on February 20th to stop the red hot Scarlet Knights in their path. Purdue was able to pull off an 84-72 victory at home against Rutgers. Rutgers followed up its performance at Purdue with losses to Michigan (Q1, 71-62) and Wisconsin (Q1, 66-61), which put Rutgers squarely back on the bubble. Analysts across college basketball began writing off the Scarlet Knights once again, and many bracketologists actually removed Rutgers from the Field of 68.
With their backs against the wall, Rutgers knew they needed a big win at Indiana (Q1) to resurrect their NCAA Tournament hopes. Rutgers seized the opportunity and proved all the naysayers wrong as they pulled off a stunning 66-63 win on the road at Assembly Hall, one of the Big Ten's toughest environments. Rutgers has now won seven out of its last eight meetings with the Hoosiers.
This Sunday, Rutgers will battle Penn State (12-15 overall; 7-12 conference) at a sold out RAC in front of a raucous crowd. In order for Rutgers to prove they are still worthy of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, Rutgers must avoid a loss to Penn State (Q3). But make no mistake, Penn State will not go quietly into the night. The Nittany Lions are a tough basketball team, and new head coach Micah Shrewsbury will have his players playing with belief that they can win and play spoiler in New Jersey. Penn State has had some tough losses this season but some great wins, including a road win at Michigan State and an upset of #24 Iowa. Also, Penn State blasted Rutgers in Happy Valley earlier this season. A Q3 loss to Penn State would seriously damage Rutgers NCAA Tournament hopes.
Rutgers knows what is on the line: 1.) Potential at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament 2.) Possibility of finishing 4th place but no worse than 6th place in the Big Ten standings 3.) Possible double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Potential Big Ten Tournament scenarios
Currently, Rutgers is sitting in 6th place in the Big Ten standings at 11-8. Iowa and Ohio State are both 12-7 in the standings. Behind Rutgers in the standings are Michigan and Michigan state at 10-9.
If you are a Rutgers fan you will be rooting for Ohio State to lose to Michigan and for Illinois to beat Iowa. The reason why you want Ohio State and Iowa to both lose and of course hope for a Rutgers win is because Rutgers owns the tiebreak (victories over both teams) for the season, and Rutgers could ascend to 4th place, essentially giving Rutgers a double-bye for the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers has never finished in 4th place in the Big Ten and earned a double-bye.
If both Iowa and Ohio State win their games, Rutgers would finish no worse than 6th place and Rutgers would play the winner of the 11-seed vs 14-seed matchup Thursday, March 10th. Even if Iowa and Ohio State both lose, and Rutgers loses, Rutgers would still finish in 6th place ahead of Michigan and Michigan State. However, losing is not an option for Rutgers on Sunday because it would seriously damage their NCAA Tournament chances. Rutgers would then have to go on a Big Ten Tournament run to make up for the loss to Penn State.
If Rutgers were to win on Sunday, and Iowa were to lose but Ohio State wins -or- Ohio State loses and Iowa wins, Rutgers would finish in 5th place. Rutgers would then face the winner of the 12-seed vs 13-seed matchup.
(photo courtesy of Asbury Park Press)
Rutgers pays tribute to its senior class
Sunday's game against Penn State is going to be emotionally charged for the coaches, players, and fans. It is going to be a sad day yet an exciting day. Rutgers nation will pay tribute to its seniors, Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ron Harper Jr., Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Luke Nathan. This will be the last time Rutgers fans will see Geo Baker in action at The RAC, and probably the last time Rutgers fans will see Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr.
Geo Baker has been the catalyst for Steve Pikiell with helping to turn around a dead Rutgers basketball program. Rutgers basketball would certainly not be where it is today if it were not for the contributions of Geo Baker. He may very well be one of the most important players in Rutgers men's basketball history.
Rutgers men's basketball was once a dead program. It was a place that most coaches wanted to avoid despite its affiliation in the Atlantic 10 Conference and the Big East Conference. Since the 1990-91 season, when Bob Wenzel led the charge and Rutgers made its last NCAA Tournament appearance, many coaches that followed were unsuccessful. Kevin Bannon followed Bob Wenzel and went 59-60. Bannon was fired in 2001. Gary Waters went 79-75, including an NIT Championship appearance in 2004. Waters resigned in 2006. Fred Hill Jr. was hired after Waters' resignation, and went 57-77 overall. Hill Jr. was fired after four seasons on The Banks. Mike Rice Jr. went 44-51 and was fired in 2013 after being embroiled in controversy for abusing his players. Rice Jr. left a stain on the Rutgers program, and players began to transfer out after Rice Jr. was fired. Rutgers turned to Eddie Jordan, a Rutgers basketball legend, to help turn around the program. However, Jordan struggled to recruit and went a dismal 29-68. Jordan oversaw the transition of Rutgers from the Big East to the American Athletic to the Big Ten. Jordan was fired in in 2016, and Rutgers was desperate to find a coach who would lead the charge of an almost impossible situation. Who would be the next coach to take over what was the worst Power 5 basketball program in the nation? In 2016, new Rutgers AD Pat Hobbs hired Steve Pikiell as head coach.
In Steve Pikiell's second season as head coach of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, things were noticeably different. Rutgers had a different energy under Pikiell. The Scarlet Knights started winning some games and play competitively in the Big Ten. Pikiell relied on his 2017 recruiting class to start making contributions in the 2017-18 season. Geo Baker was one of his primary recruits in the 2017 recruiting class. Baker was a borderline two-/three-star recruit, with offers from only a few low-major schools, when he came to The Banks, and Pikiell inserted him into the playing mix almost right away. Baker had several breakout games in the 2017-18 season. He and former Rutgers standout Corey Sanders carried Rutgers to a massive upset victory over 6-seed Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, making Rutgers the first 14-seed in Big Ten Tournament history to reach the Quarterfinals. Although Rutgers lost to #11 ranked Purdue in the Quarterfinals, it was Geo Baker who scored 25 pts and pushed the Boilermakers to the edge of a near loss. Purdue escaped with a 82-75 victory.
Geo Baker almost immediately moved to the forefront of Rutgers as its true leader after his first season. Time and time again, Baker continued to make big play after big play in the seasons that would follow. Baker was the savior for Rutgers when found itself down to Nebraska at The RAC in the 2019-20 season. Baker hit a clutch three-point shot that would lift Rutgers to a season-saving 75-72 victory. With their backs against the wall and in the last game of the season, Geo Baker carried Rutgers to an overtime victory over Purdue at Mackey Arena to deliver what would have been Rutgers first NCAA Tournament bid since the 1990-91 season if COVID-19 had not canceled the season. Throughout the 2020-21 season and current season, Baker would continuously lead the charge and guide to Rutgers to many come-from-behind improbable victories. It was Geo Baker who became almost superhuman in a massive come-from-behind rally to upset #16 Ohio State. Baker scored 25 points, but it was the final series of shots Baker that took, and incredible passing to help Rutgers win the game against the Buckeyes. Baker has been clutch in the moment when Rutgers has needed him most. It was not always about scoring points with Geo Baker, but it was the plays he made that never showed up in the stat sheets. It was the crisp passes he made to his teammates. His basketball IQ grew, and he made better decisions with the ball each year. It was the confidence boosters he gave his teammates when they felt down about missing a shot or making a bad play. He carried himself as a true ambassador of Rutgers basketball.
(video courtesy of Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media; Geo Baker throws down a thunderous dunk. The RAC goes insane. Also, check out Jerry Recco and Joe Boylan on the call for Geo's dunk, click here.)
Although Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr both have another year of eligibility remaining, it is likely they will be moving on from Rutgers. No formal announcement has been made yet by both players. Caleb McConnell and Ron Harper Jr. have made incredible contributions to Rutgers basketball and have forever cemented their legacies in Rutgers basketball history. They were both extraordinary pioneers that helped Rutgers become a better team in college basketball.
McConnell was a consensus three-star recruit, and Harper Jr. was given a no star rating by ESPN, 247Sports, Rivals, and Scout. When these players were recruited by Steve Pikiell, fans began to wonder if Pikiell was able to recruit quality players. But little did many Rutgers fans know at the time, Pikiell loves to build and mold players. There is a certain quality about a basketball player that Pikiell and his staff love. Pikiell is not going to lure five-star one-and done kids to Rutgers because that is not what he is looking for. Pikiell knew he would get commitment and stability out of McConnell and Harper Jr. In return, Pikiell helped them become even better players than they were when they first arrived to Piscataway.
Ron Harper Jr.'s game has improved drastically since arriving in 2018, and he is now one of five finalists for the 2021-22 Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award. Caleb McConnell is now one of ten semifinalists for the 2021-22 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award and potentially the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. No one would have seen this coming from the day they arrived in the 2018-19 season. Like Baker, time and time again, we have seen incredible performance after incredible performance from these two players to help churn out tough grinding wins against the Big Ten's best. Most notably, it was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a three-pointer that gut-punched Indiana in the closing seconds of this past week's game to keep the Scarlet Knights' tournament chances alive. It was Ron Harper Jr. who nailed a near mid-court heave that upset then ranked #1 Purdue. It was Ron Harper Jr. who took over many games between 2018 and 2022 that rocked the Big Ten's best. Who can forget the incredible block by Caleb McConnell in the closing minutes against Ohio State this season? McConnell's block sparked a run by Rutgers to come from 10 points down to upset the Buckeyes and secure an important Q1 win. McConnell is averaging an incredible 2.3 steals per game this season, and has nearly 30 more steals (67 steals) the Big Ten's second best steal leader Chase Audige of Northwestern!
(video courtesy of Brian Fonseca of NJ Advance Media. The last four minutes of Rutgers vs Ohio State. Rutgers pulls off an incredible upset from the likes of Caleb McConnell's block, and Geo Baker fueling a 10-0 run.)
There are so many special moments that these players have given us over the last 4-5 years, but as they get ready to graduate and move on from Rutgers basketball, you must remember how these young men have developed over the years into true leaders. Under the close guidance of Steve Pikiell, Brandin Knight, and Karl Hobbs, they became the true catalysts that helped saved this once faltering Rutgers basketball program. Baker, McConnell, and Harper Jr. are the reason why Rutgers fans have a reason to cheer, and why The RAC is now one of the toughest venues for opponents to play at in the country. When they leave, they will have left Rutgers basketball in a much better place.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are currently mired in a three-game losing streak, and have to travel to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall tonight (7 PM ET, BTN). Both teams will be fighting for positioning in the Big Ten Conference standings, and most importantly a chance to stay in the conversation for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The game tonight is "Do or Die" for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. There is now no margin for error, and Rutgers must win to keep its tournament hopes alive. Rutgers is currently #81 in the NET Ranking and a win against the Hoosiers would bolster their ranking for two reasons: 1.) Indiana is a Q1 opponent 2.) Rutgers would pick up a win on the road. Rutgers fans know this season has not been pretty by all means. It has been an absolute roller coaster ride with many highs and lows but none of that matters right now. What matters most is beating Indiana.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Rebound! Rebound! Rebound! - Rutgers has to get in the trenches and fight for every rebound tonight. Indiana is a good rebounding team, but so is Rutgers. On paper Rutgers is rebounding 39 boards per game while the Hoosiers are rebounding at least 40.2 boards per game. The numbers are even but tonight, Rutgers will want to make sure they have more rebounds than Indiana...by a lot. If Rutgers can outrebound Indiana tonight, then they will have limited Indiana's second chance opportunities.
Unleash Caleb McConnell - Caleb McConnell is one of ten 2022 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Semifinalists. Tonight, he will have the assignment of guarding Xavier Johnson. Xavier Johnson has been a fantastic addition to Indiana, and he has given Indiana a big lift offensively in their few games. Caleb McConnell is going to have to limit any opportunities Xavier Johnson may have. Caleb McConnell has to force Johnson to take bad shots, make bad passes, and stick to him like glue.
Control the paint - Indiana is not a great team offensively but Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best in the Big Ten. He is averaging 17.1 ppg and has been solid around the glass and in the paint all season long. Cliff Omoruyi is going to have his hands full with one of the Big Ten's best. Omoruyi is going to have to play very stout and tough defense, but also expect Pikiell to have double team pressure on Jackson-Davis down low at times throughout the game. If Rutgers can play well defensively in the paint and clog the passing lanes, Jackson-Davis will have a very difficult time scoring. On the flip side, Rutgers must feed the ball to Omoruyi down low. Not every single play to Omoruyi has to be an incredible dunk and alley oop, but Rutgers just has to be smart with the ball down low and set him up for a good shot or layup at the net.
Geo Baker and RHJ must lead from the front - Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr are the faces and leaders of Rutgers basketball, and tonight they must step up and rise to the occasion. With your season on the line, both players must play solid basketball. They have to make smart passes, take good shots, and drive to the hoop. Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr are at their best when they can drive the lanes and potentially score or draw fouls. Baker and Harper Jr must scale back on taking bad shots and allow Indiana to go on a run. All too often, we have seen Baker and Harper Jr force shots and other teams are able to capitalize and go on runs.
Paul Mulcahy must stay out of foul trouble - Paul Mulcahy must absolutely stay out of foul trouble. He has to stay mentally focused, and play tough, clean physical basketball. In the last three games, Paul Mulcahy has been finding himself in foul trouble in the first half and it kills Rutgers. Mulcahy also has to be much smarter on the offensive end and not commit illegal screens. He has committed a slew of offensive fouls in the last three games. He is one of the Scarlet Knights' best ball handlers and they are going to need every minute out of Mulcahy tonight.
Rutgers is in a must-win situation against Indiana
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are currently on a three-game skid, and are in a must-win situation when they tip-off against Indiana tomorrow night at Assembly Hall (7 PM ET; BTN). If Rutgers wants to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee and prove they are worthy of an at-large berth in the Field of 68, the Scarlet Knights must win against Indiana. There is no margin for error. The Scarlet Knights have their backs against the wall, and if they can pull out a victory in Bloomington tomorrow, they can find themselves back in the tournament discussion. If the Scarlet Knights lose tomorrow, it will be nearly impossible for them to make the NCAA Tournament. According to Bracket Matrix, Rutgers is only projected to land in the Field of 68 by 30 bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi who has them as a 12-seed in the "Last Four In".
Currently, Rutgers is sitting at #82 in the NET Rankings, and if the Scarlet Knights can pull out the win tomorrow evening, their NET Ranking would vastly improve because of two things: A. Q1 victory B. Road-win. It will certainly not be easy tomorrow because the Indiana Hoosiers are desperate for a win to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive. Indiana boasts a very good home record of 14-3, with losses only to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. The Hoosiers are currently 18-10 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten Conference (9th place). Indiana is currently ranked #43 in the NET but they are only 3-6 against Q1 opponents and are 3-7 on the road. However, Rutgers does not have a great road record this year as the Scarlet Knights are 3-9 away from home. Despite the poor road record, Rutgers is 6-5 against Q1 opponents.
With their backs against the wall, Rutgers will be under immense pressure to win in Bloomington tomorrow. The crowd is going to be fired up, and the atmosphere is going to be extremely intense. But Rutgers has played in these pressure situations before. During the 2019-20 season, the Scarlet Knights were on a three-game skid when they needed two massive wins against #9 Maryland (home) and Purdue (away) to receive a bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Scarlet Knights delivered and were able to upset the Terrapins and the Boilermakers. In the 2020-21 season, Rutgers lost 3 out 4 games before facing Minnesota on the road. Rutgers was desperate for a win after they were no-shows in a blowout loss to bottom feeder Nebraska. Rutgers battled Minnesota in overtime, and pulled out the stunning victory to earn themselves a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Looks familiar, right?
Even if Rutgers were to pull out a big win tomorrow in Bloomington, Rutgers will then have to face a tough, scrappy Penn State (Q3) team in what might be considered the biggest senior night in Rutgers college basketball history at The RAC. This is one game Rutgers will absolutely want to avoid losing if they want to keep their chances alive. But, first thing is first, Rutgers must win tomorrow against a tough, battle-tested Hoosiers squad. The Hoosiers will have revenge on their minds after Rutgers swept them in not only two games last season but three games. Rutgers clubbed Indiana at home last season and ran the Hoosiers out of their own building last year. Rutgers also picked up a decisive Big Ten Conference Tournament win against the Hoosiers last year. Rutgers owns a four-game winning streak against the Indiana dating back to the 2019-20 season.
