Rutgers must address their non-conference scheduling strategy going forward

 

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Rutgers must re-assess their non-conference scheduling strategy after having a non-conference schedule that rated one of the worst in all of college basketball.

by Richard Kent & Mark Remsa

Rutgers Hoops Insider contributors Richard Kent & Mark Remsa suggest Rutgers must take a hard look at scheduling considerations for their future non-conference schedule after it was rated 308th in the NET Rankings and 340th per KenPom for the 2022-23 season.

As the 2022-23 regular season has come to a close and the Big Ten Conference Tournament is about to begin, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights find themselves in a very difficult situation, one that was unfathomable only a month ago. 

Rutgers was primed to make the NCAA Tournament as a single digit seed, but after dropping six of their last eight games and losing one of their best players Mawot Mag to an ACL tear for the year, the Scarlet Knights are currently projected by a majority of experts and bracketologists to be an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. As a matter of fact, many experts and bracketologists feel that because of the major slide Rutgers has suffered at the end of the season, the only way the Scarlet Knights will hear their names called on Selection Sunday is if they beat Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.

It's not only losing six of their last eight games of the regular season that has hurt Rutgers' chances of making the NCAA Tournament but it's also an issue of scheduling weak, low-level out-of-conference opponents.

The 2022-23 Non-Conference Schedule

Rutgers Hoops Insider conducted a deep dive evaluation of the 2022-23 non-conference schedule back in June and determined that although the Scarlet Knights slightly tweaked their non-conference scheduling strategy, there were not enough quality opponents to bolster their non-conference schedule and Rutgers continued their trend of playing lower-level opponents.

Prior to the 2022-23 season, Rutgers added what was considered to be "two more quality programs" to the non-conference schedule as compared to the 2021-22 season. Unfortunately, to Rutgers no fault of their own, the so-called "quality" opponents, Wake Forest and Temple, added to the non-conference schedule this season ended up becoming Quadrant 3 (Q3) teams when they were projected before the season to likely be Q2 caliber teams. Many felt this was Aaron McKie's best team at Temple and they failed to live up to the hype. Things were going in the right direction for Wake Forest under Steve Forbes, but unfortunately the season unraveled mid-way through the year and the Demon Deacons finished in the middle of a bad ACC Conference.

The Miami Hurricanes were the only Q1 foe on Rutgers' non-conference docket, and even then, the only reason why the Scarlet Knights faced the Hurricanes was because the 'powers that be' paired them together for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.

At least nine of the eleven non-conference opponents Rutgers faced this season were Q3/4 opponents with Seton Hall rotating back and forth between Q2/3 status due to a down year under first year coach Shaheen Holloway. Also, six out-of-conference opponents Rutgers faced this year were Q4 opponents and five of the six were rated 298 or worse in the NET Rankings.

Despite there almost being no benefit in playing low-level opponents in the non-conference portion of the regular season, Rutgers did benefit by blowing out every Q4 opponent by 30 or more points this season. This metric helped Rutgers boost their NET rating; however, if you start to lose more quality games in your conference schedule and it comes down to slight differences on your NCAA Tournament resume, Selection Committee members may value another team's tougher non-conference schedule over another team's softer non-conference schedule.

Rutgers did adhere to the advice of several experts in scheduling a neutral site game in their non-conference schedule. Rutgers played a neutral floor game with Temple at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut, but squandered the opportunity to add a neutral floor win to their NCAA Tournament resume by losing to the Owls, which ended up hurting the Scarlet Knights because it was a Q3 loss.

Jerry Carino of the Asbury Park Press was one of the first to report that Rutgers had tried to schedule Gonzaga for the 2022-23 season, but the game was nixed due to Gonzaga wanting to play on an aircraft carrier against Michigan State to start the season. Also, a source close to the program shared a Rutgers-Providence game at the Mohegan Sun was considered this season, but never developed.

Addressing the Strategy Going Forward

There's no question Rutgers must address their non-conference strategy going forward, and playing too many low-level opponents is a problem, especially when it comes down to Selection Sunday when the Selection Committee is comparing resumes. 

Every Power 5 basketball team plays its fair share of low-level opponents in their non-conference schedule and we are not suggesting Rutgers fills its entire schedule with Q1/2 opponents, but this year's Rutgers team would be solidly in the field if it had played a better non-conference schedule against a one to two more higher level opponents, two more road contests, and/or one  to two more neutral floor games. 

Over the years, Rutgers has played too many home games against low-level opponents and while that's a good thing for the Rutgers community, it hurts this team in the long run because it doesn't bolster their resume.

Everyone must understand though, there are a lot more difficulties in today's college basketball world in scheduling out-of-conference opponents. In an interview with Aaron Breitman of The Scarlet Faithful prior to the 2022-23 season, head coach Steve Pikiell stressed that it is not easy to scheduling opponents, and that you cannot just call another team's coach and ask to play them. There are many factors at play when it comes to scheduling but most importantly it boils down to timing and logistics.

This year's Rutgers team had a non-conference schedule rating of 308 compared to Michigan State's schedule rated 39 which was the toughest in the Big Ten, according to the NET Rankings. Rutgers had the weakest non-conference strength of schedule in the Big Ten. It's no secret Pikiell is bringing in top-level talent, with visions of Ace Bailey, Dellquan Warren, Gavin Griffiths, Baye Ndongo, and possibly Dylan Harper running the floor, it's time to render the shibboleths nugatory and to visualize a non-conference schedule that looks more challenging for 2023 and 2024.

Future Non-Conference Schedule Suggestions

MULTI-TEAM EVENTS

Rutgers fans for a long time have wanted to see the Scarlet Knights play in a multi-team event (MTE) such as the Maui Jim Invitational, Legends Classic, Myrtle Beach Invitational, Jimmy V Classic, etc. because it offers the opportunity for the Scarlet Knights to play good competition on a neutral floor. The Selection Committee highly values neutral floor games. In the seven years under Pikiell, Rutgers has yet to participate in a MTE.

We urge Rutgers to participate in an MTE. If travel is a concern that is preventing Pikiell from having Rutgers play in an MTE, this team can try to participate in one that is close to home in New York or in the Northeast.

THE GARDEN STATE HARDWOOD CLASSIC

One thing is likely to be a guarantee moving forward, and that is the Garden State Hardwood Classic. This is the college basketball rivalry of New Jersey and it pits Seton Hall and Rutgers against one another. This is a non-conference game that must occur every year. 

After Kevin Willard decided to play Penn State instead of Rutgers during the 2020-21 season because he was fearful Seton Hall would lose a home crowd due to COVID, it only added a bitter taste to Rutgers' fans mouths and heated up this rivalry even more. Steve Pikiell and Seton Hall head coach Shaheen Holloway have both agreed they love the importance of this rivalry game and to keep tradition moving forward.

MADISON SQUARE GARDEN

According Richie Schnyderite of The Knight Report and a source close to the program, Rutgers has made an effort to schedule a neutral floor game for 2023 at Madison Square Garden, and there are currently three opponents interested in playing the Scarlet Knights, including Gonzaga, Providence, and St. John's. 

In one of our previous articles from February, we suggested Rutgers play a future neutral floor game against Providence at The Garden; however, this does not mean they will play Providence in 2023 as it was a mere suggestion and Providence is just one of the candidates for next year's non-conference schedule.

One can appreciate Rutgers is making an attempt to play quality opponents in a neutral floor setting. A game against St. John's would certainly be exciting with both a large Scarlet Knights-Red Storm contingent at the world's most famous arena.

A potential matchup with Gonzaga would certainly elevate Rutgers' non-conference schedule as the Bulldogs have become a top perennial power in college basketball.

JIMMY V CLASSIC

Rutgers needs to play in this game, and it's what all of the fans want. Jim Valvano played and coached at Rutgers, and it would certainly be a wonderful treat to see the Scarlet Knights play in this game and honor him at Madison Square Garden.

It would certainly be feasible to see Rutgers play UConn in this game. Steve Pikiell played at UConn and coaches in New Jersey. Dan Hurley is from New Jersey and coaches at UConn. The atmosphere and magnitude of this game would be off the charts, and would be an instant sellout.

If Rutgers were to play in this game at The Garden and are unable to draw UConn, Pikiell should work hard to play UConn in a possible home-and-home series. It would be great for not only both programs, but it would be great for college basketball in The East.

Another attractive opponent that could bring meaning to the Jimmy V Classic would be NC State. Jim Valvano coached at NC State and won a national title there. NC State is a program on the rise under Kevin Keatts, and if the Wolf Pack faced off against the Scarlet Knights it would be two programs that Jim Valvano had impact on.

ACC OPPONENTS

Rutgers is already scheduled to play Wake Forest for the 2023 season, but the Scarlet Knights should try to play more ACC opponents. With the ACC-Big Ten Challenge getting battle axed for the future, Rutgers could try to schedule a home-and-home series with NC State, Pittsburgh, and Virginia or continue its series with Wake Forest. 

It would certainly be a dream come true if Rutgers could schedule games against North Carolina or Duke, but that appears to be unlikely since both programs would probably not want to play at the ever-so hostile RAC.

SEC OPPONENTS

One way Rutgers can bolster their schedule is if they could schedule a game against a higher level SEC opponent. In the past Rutgers has played against SEC opponents with some success, but they do not play SEC opponents enough. One suggestion would be to possibly play a home-and-home series against Auburn. Bruce Pearl is a polarizing, charismatic coach at Auburn, and it would certainly make for a wonderful series between the two programs.  

As challenging as a place The RAC has become, some SEC opponents might be reluctant in visiting the Scarlet Knights but Auburn has not been afraid to go into hostile environments.

PRINCETON

In an interview Jaden Daly of A Daly Dose of Hoops, we asked if we will ever see Rutgers go on the road and play at a mid-major program's building and Jaden said it appears to be 'unlikely'; however, we believe there is one mid-major worthy of Rutgers playing on the road and continuing tradition and that is Princeton.

It's time. Oh, it's time to reinvigorate the one true traditional rivalry Rutgers has had in its basketball history, which dates back to the 1916-17 season. Only 16 miles separates these two programs. Princeton no longer plays the slowdown style which Hall of Famer Pete Carril instilled. This is a team that plays quick and fast, and they run the floor under Mitch Henderson. After all, Princeton finished at the top of this year's Ivy League standings.

MID-MAJOR OPPONENTS

As stated earlier, we all know Rutgers cannot fill their entire non-conference schedule with Q1/2 opponents, so it is likely the Scarlet Knights will continue to play mid-major opponents from within the region but they need to limit the number of mid-majors appearing on their schedule to possibly five or six.

It would be wise if Rutgers can continue playing mid-majors from across the region whether they are from the Ivy League, Patriot League, Atlantic 10, CAA, MEAC, NEC, and/or American Athletic.

As we suggested earlier, Rutgers should probably play a few weak mid-major opponents (Q3/4) but should probably schedule at least two decent or better mid-major programs (Q2/3).

There are many attractive options across the Atlantic 10, but if Rutgers could schedule a game against George Washington they could renew what once was a traditional Atlantic 10 rivalry. Current Rutgers assistant Karl Hobbs was once the head coach there with Steve Pikiell serving as his assistant.

Steve Pikiell does have a continued relationship with Central Connecticut State and it's likely we will see the Blue Devils appear on future schedules. Pikiell was once an assistant coach at Central Connecticut State.

Although it's not a rivalry game, the Monmouth Hawks could be an attractive mid-major solution to their non-conference schedule. The Hawks had a  down year this season but King Rice has had Monmouth playing competitive basketball during the course of his coaching tenure. Monmouth is also located in New Jersey and it wouldn't be a difficult trek for them to make logistically to The RAC. Other possible New Jersey mid-majors to consider include Rider, Farleigh Dickinson, and St. Peter's.

It might be wise for Rutgers to schedule a decent HBCU program. This year Rutgers played Coppin State (MEAC) at home but the Eagles were rated near the bottom of college basketball. Howard and Norfolk State have experienced better seasons in year's past, and they could be viable options for Rutgers.

GAVITT GAMES

Let's not forget about the annual Gavitt Games which pits Big Ten teams against Big East teams. Rutgers was left out of the mix this year but will probably play in this annual event for the next couple of seasons. 

While it is out of Pikiell's control of who Rutgers faces in the Gavitt Games, he and his staff should become more vocal and try to press the issue that Rutgers needs to play the upper echelon of the Big East rather drawing DePaul each season. Hopefully, Rutgers can draw Villanova, UConn, or Providence in future Gavitt Games.

Outlook

Whatever happens going forward, we know one thing is absolutely certain. Rutgers must address their non-conference scheduling strategy and improve the non-conference schedule. It appears as if the Scarlet Knights are trying to improve it by playing on the road at Wake Forest and attempting to schedule a neutral floor game (possibly against Gonzaga, Providence or St. John's) at Madison Square Garden for 2023. Also, it will be Rutgers turn to play at Seton Hall next season for the Garden State Hardwood Classic. For now, those contests will be Q1/2 games for next season.

If they continue the trend of playing too many weak opponents, it will bring down their non-conference strength of schedule rating which could hurt them when it comes down to evaluating NCAA Tournament resumes.

** NOTE: The NCAA uses a metrics-based system known as the NET Rankings to evaluate and quantify a team's schedule, strength of schedule, performance, road wins/losses, and quality of wins. It is just one of a few tools to assist the NCAA Selection Committee in selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament.

Q&A with JBR Bracketology, Round 2

The 2022-23 college basketball regular season has come to a close and conference tournaments have already begun. This year's bubble picture seems more unclear than many can remember with so many teams fighting to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers is among several bubble teams fighting for their right to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

I last conducted a Q&A with JBR Bracketology on February 12th, and Rutgers was in prime position to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament but since then the Scarlet Knights have gone 2-6 in the closing stretch of the season, lost defensive stalwart Mawot Mag to an ACL tear, suffered a stunning defeat to lowly Minnesota, plummeted to 41 in the NET Rankings, and finished 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten Conference. It really has been a disappointing finish to a really promising season for the Scarlet Knights.

After dropping their last game of the season to Northwestern, Rutgers earned a 9-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will face 8-seed Michigan in Chicago on Thursday, March 9 at 12 PM (BTN). Rutgers and Michigan last met on the hardwood earlier in late February as the Wolverines marched on to 58-45 victory.

Now, Rutgers finds themselves in familiar territory. With their backs against the wall in a do-or-die situation, Rutgers must find a way to beat Michigan to potentially save their season and earn what would be their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament.

I reached out to Jason R. of JBR Bracketology again to get his take on what he feels Rutgers needs to do to get into the NCAA Tournament and the potential scenarios for the Scarlet Knights. I also asked Jason a few questions about other teams in the Big Ten, and how he feels about their chances as well.

Please follow and support JBR Bracketology on Twitter @ JBRBracketology. Jason updates his brackets every few days during the week but he is active on Twitter so if you have a question for him do not hesitate to reach out to him.

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jason, thanks for doing this Q&A with me on such short notice. The NCAA Tournament is looming right around the corner and with conference tournaments under way with bubble teams needing an extra win or two to impress the Selection Committee, which teams are your bubble teams? Who are your Last Four In? Last Four Out? Next Four Out?

Jason R. (JBR): No problem. This is always an incredibly exciting but anxious time. My Last Four In are currently NC State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and Nevada. First Four Out is Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Michigan. And my Next Four Out is North Carolina, North Texas, Oregon and Oklahoma.

RHI: After losing their last two games of the regular season, Rutgers has dropped considerably in the Field of 68 projections. They were once dreaming of possibly earning a protected 4-seed but have since then gone 2-6 in the closing stretch of the regular season and are now faced with the reality that they might be headed to Dayton again as an 11-seed. Just how damaging was that loss to Minnesota last week to this team?

JBR: That loss was brutal. Most bracketologists were ready to "lock" Rutgers with that win. I was on the fence whether I was going to officially lock them, but regardless of the "lock" status, Rutgers was looking at a 99%+ chance at a bid had they won at Minnesota.

RHI: Many analysts and bracketologists feel Rutgers "must win" against Michigan on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament to save their season and earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Is this true? If Rutgers were to lose to Michigan on Thursday and other bubble teams lose their conference tournament games, does Rutgers still have a chance?

JBR: Do they still have a chance? Yes. But I don't think Rutgers gets in without a win vs Michigan. Between 1-3 bid stealers and some other bubble teams playing their way in, I think Rutgers gets left out.

RHI: Rutgers is currently 41 in the NET with a combined nine Q1/2 wins. They also have two Q1A wins on the year along with three Q1 road wins (Purdue, N'western, Penn State), potentially a fourth if Wisconsin beats Ohio State on Wednesday, and zero Q4 losses. As these appear to be very strong metrics, I also understand that Rutgers suffered three Q3 losses, poor strength of record (62nd), and a weak non-conference strength of schedule (313th). Do the negatives outweigh the positives for Rutgers in this case? Explain.

JBR: It's a balance. The Committee is going to look at the full body of work. My concern over the past month when it comes to Rutgers has been the two resume metrics - KPI and SOR. These are the two most important metrics in determining entry into the NCAA Tournament, whereas the NET and predictive metrics (KP/ Sagarin/ BPI) helps to round the teams into seeds more reflective of how "good" that team is. Rutgers currently sits at 58.0 resume average. The worst at large team to get in over the past five years was 2022 Rutgers at 57.5. A loss to Michigan likely pushes that resume average into the 60s and the NET into the mid 40s. At that point, I don't think the positives will be enough to overcome the negatives.

RHI: Aaron Breitman of The Scarlet Faithful first reported on Twitter, the NCAA Selection Committee will take into account that the Big Ten officially said the winning shot for Ohio State against Rutgers back in December should not have counted and the play should have been ruled dead. If Rutgers had won the game, it would have counted as a Q1 win for Rutgers making their record against Q1 opponents 6-6. Does this news change the current projection for Rutgers? If used as a tiebreaker among bubble teams, would this win be enough to push Rutgers into the field?

JBR: I don't think it changes much should Rutgers lose to Michigan. At that point, I still feel confident Rutgers would be out of the field. However, it does make me more confident that Rutgers gets an at-large spot should they beat Michigan and lose to Purdue.

RHI: Where do you currently have Rutgers in your projected bracketology? Explain why.

JBR: I have Rutgers #44 on the seed list, with the final at large team currently #46. The 7 losses outside of Quad 1, including 3 of them in Quad 3, really hurts. The NET and predictive metrics are good, but the volume of losses, especially outside of Quad 1, is really dragging this resume down. I would put at-large chances at about 85% with a win over Michigan and about 10% with a loss to Michigan. That's how close the margin is here.

RHI: Penn State has been on the bubble the entire season but they have turned things around despite blowing a 19-point lead at home last week to Rutgers. The Nittany Lions are 19-12 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten. They are 56th in the NET with almost similar metrics to Rutgers, except they have only one Q3 loss on the season. Penn State is currently projected as a 10/11-seed by other bracketologists. In your opinion, is Penn State safely in the field or should they still be concerned about their chances of making the NCAA Tournament?

JBR: Penn State has a sneaky impressive resume, and has really shot up my seed list over the past couple weeks. I now have Penn State as Last Four Byes. Penn State would be pretty much a lock with a win on Thursday over Illinois, but I still like their chances even if they lose that one. Their NET is comparatively worse than Rutgers', but both of their resume metrics are much stronger, contributing to their 45.0 resume average.

RHI: You've locked in many teams from the Big Ten to make the NCAA Tournament already. How come Iowa is locked in and not sweating it out after suffering two Q3 home losses and a Q4 home loss to Eastern Illinois (344)?

JBR: Iowa has a bit of an odd resume for sure. But they have a strong collection of wins, and are currently 9-6 vs the projected field with two true road wins. Their metrics are much better than Rutgers' (33 NET and 38.5 resume average) and I believe the committee will give them a little bit of a pass for the Eastern Illinois loss that came without Murray, though of course that game does still count.

RHI: Michigan has been a Jekyll-Hyde team this year in the Big Ten. There are days the Wolverines look great, some days they look okay, and other days they look bad. Michigan only has three Q1 wins on the season and one Q4 loss (Central Michigan, 329); however, they do have five Q2 wins and zero Q3 losses. Does Michigan have a fighter's chance at making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Rutgers on Thursday, or do they need to win the Big Ten Tournament to get into the Field of 68?

JBR: I think Michigan is in with a win over Rutgers and Purdue. But I think they have to win both. I think they are too far back to get in with just one win here vs Rutgers (or 0 wins).

RHI: When it is all said and done, how many teams total from the Big Ten do you have going to the Big Dance? Which teams?

JBR: 9 teams get in. Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Penn State and one of Rutgers/ Michigan.

RHI: Jason, once again, thanks for doing this on such short notice.

JBR: You are welcome. Good luck today!

Final Weekly Big Ten Power Rankings (thru games played March 5)

Q&A with Jaden Daly of A Daly Dose of Hoops

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights men’s basketball team is nearing the end of the regular season and the Big Ten Conference tournament is about to begin; however, Rutgers has some work to do to become a lock in this year’s NCAA Tournament. As we get ready for another exciting chapter to the 2022-23 campaign, let’s take a moment to reflect on the great season Rutgers has had, discuss the impact by certain players, what this team can improve upon, what the future holds, and predictions going forward heading into the postseason.

In order to do all of that, I reached out to Jaden Daly, founder and managing editor of A Daly Dose of Hoops, and wanted to ask him about his thoughts on this year’s team since he has covered a lot of Rutgers basketball.

Jaden Daly is no stranger to the college basketball world, especially in the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area. Jaden provides some of the best college hoops coverage of not only Rutgers basketball but also St. John’s basketball and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). Jaden is a workhorse behind the scenes and has attended over 60 college basketball games this season to provide you the best coverage for Rutgers, St. John's, and MAAC basketball.

Check out all of Jaden Daly and his team’s work on his web site at A Daly Dose of Hoops (dalydoseofhoops.blogspot.com) and please follow Jaden @DalyDoseOfHoops on Twitter.

Note: This Q&A was conducted two days prior to the Rutgers vs. Penn State men’s basketball game on February 26th.

Rutgers Hoops Insider (RHI): Jaden, thanks for taking time out of your very busy schedule to do this Q&A with me today. It's really an honor to be able to do this with you. You have become one of my favorite college basketball sports writers and I absolutely love your web site 'A Daly Dose of Hoops'. You do an excellent job covering the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and college hoops in the tri-state area. The web site is so informative, and the writers on your web site are so passionate about the many different leagues across college basketball. 

I know you've kept all of your followers on Twitter informed with how many games you've attended and covered this season, and quite frankly I think I've lost count. You've covered so much college basketball this season it's really incredible. 

I know you've covered a few Rutgers basketball games this season so I have to ask you, from all of the different venues you've attended this season is there really a venue out there that matches the atmosphere of a Rutgers basketball game at The RAC? Which mid-major colleges do you think have the best atmosphere in the northeast?

Jaden Daly (JD): Well, first let me say that I appreciate the kind words extended toward me and the site at large, as it means the world to me whenever I hear something like that. It’s a labor of love that I wouldn’t trade for many things in this world. I’ll be going into March at 66 games (Tuesday's Seton Hall/Villanova game being #66), and will probably get up near 90 by the time the season is over.

That said, when I look back at all the different places I’ve been to, the RAC is unmatched. It may not be the best venue around, but what it lacks in style points and appearance, it more than makes up for in mystique, in-game atmosphere and an intimidation factor for visiting teams that I really wouldn’t be able to describe unless I were actually in the building with you. When that place starts shaking and hits another gear, it’s right up there with Allen Fieldhouse, Mackey Arena, Gampel Pavilion, and so many other venerable home courts that are almost impossible to win on if you’re coming in as a road team.

At the mid-major level, Iona definitely has one of the better setups and homecourt advantages at the Hynes Center, and that was established long before Rick Pitino was even in the stream of consciousness in New Rochelle. The fan base there is among the best in the MAAC, and goes to great lengths to support the program at all costs, sometimes even better than some of the higher-level schools in the region. And when Fordham reaches the levels it has this season, Rose Hill is an entirely different animal that is truly unlike any other gym in New York or New Jersey.

RHI: You were present for the Rutgers-Michigan State showdown at The Garden back in early February. Prior to the game, a lot of unhappy Rutgers fans were concerned about the game being played at The Garden because they felt the Big Ten robbed Rutgers of a home game at The RAC. However, Rutgers fans showed up in droves and painted The Garden scarlet red for the day. You wrote a brilliant article about the game. Tell me how incredible the atmosphere was for this game? Would you say the atmosphere for this game triumphs the atmosphere from the 2018 Big Ten Conference Tournament game when 14-seed Rutgers stunned 6-seed Indiana at The Garden?

JD: Rutgers’ presence at the Garden is a lot like the line in Field of Dreams, right? If you build it, people will come. And like I wrote in that Michigan State column you mentioned, there was a time five years ago when Rutgers would NEVER get an audience in Manhattan. Even if it tried to get on the undercard of a St. John’s game, or some other national brand like a Duke or a Kentucky that has come up here for non-conference games, Rutgers would have been laughed out of the room under Fred Hill, Mike Rice or (cringe, shudder) Eddie Jordan.

But what blew me away was how much it felt like the RAC had been transported across the river and doubled in size. When Rutgers was in New York for the Big Ten tournament, the crowds weren’t this sizable or boisterous. I was fortunate enough to cover the quarterfinal against Purdue and I always say that was the moment, that was the sign where you knew something special was about to happen. I didn’t get to see either of the first two games outside of the last minute of the Indiana game on my phone (true story), so I can’t account for how Wednesday and Thursday sounded that week. I did, however, cover the game against Michigan in 2020 the month before the season got shut down, and that impressed me too from a Rutgers fan support standpoint. Nothing, though, was as electric as this year, it reminded me of a Big East tournament game in terms of how engaged everyone was.

RHI: You've covered a lot of Rutgers basketball and have attended a few games this season, what impresses you most about this year's team? Which player has impressed you the most this season?

JD: The one thing that stands out with me regarding this year’s team is its cohesiveness. That’s usually a trademark of most Steve Pikiell-coached groups, they’re in almost every game and seldom get blown out, but this team in particular has shown it could take a punch and not be affected as much as some of the past units. Losing Mawot Mag, and we’ll touch on that a lot more later in this interview, is still something that this team is trying to overcome, but regrouping from not having Caleb McConnell and/or Paul Mulcahy in stretches hasn’t stopped Rutgers from trying to affect games or impose its will on opponents. 

In particular, I love how this team has managed to come back after losses in Big Ten play. The loss at home to Iowa could have sent Rutgers on a downward spiral, but the wins at Northwestern and at home against Ohio State (as an aside, how different do those two games look now going into March than they did in January?) got everything back on track and allowed fans to keep the same level of faith. Even the win at Wisconsin that halted the three-game losing streak was huge, too. I expect something similar going into Penn State coming off the letdown against Michigan.

From a player standpoint, I would have to say Mulcahy, with an honorable mention to Aundre Hyatt. Mulcahy has taken games into his own hands more this season, which was something I wanted to see given the question marks going into the year of how Rutgers would score without Geo and Ron. Cam Spencer would have won this contest going away until Big Ten teams started to figure him out more as the year went on, and I’d like to see him try to solve the adjustments better over the last week or two before the NCAA Tournament. Hyatt has been everything you could ask for in a sixth man now pressed into a larger role after the Mag injury, and was one of the big reasons why Rutgers was able to beat Maryland and Penn State earlier this year. He’s a guy who understands his role, but still wants to do more in such a way that it doesn’t affect his own bottom line, but benefits the team and the big picture as a whole.

RHI: Freshman Derek Simpson has played significant minutes this season. Some people compare him to being the next Geo Baker. What impresses you most about Derek Simpson? Do you think Derek Simpson will become "the guy" this team can rely on down the stretch in close games in the future?

JD: It’s easy to compare Derek and Geo, right? They both have the same build, play the same position, have similar styles…heck, they even wear the same number! But for all the common threads, they strike me as different players, especially at this phase and time in their careers.

Derek has been unafraid to step up in big moments, going back to the Temple game at Mohegan Sun, and has demonstrated a fearlessness in crunch time that you don’t normally see from freshmen so early in their first seasons. What makes him different is he doesn’t have to do as much as Geo did when he was a freshman, when the talent around him was also developing alongside him. Now that Pikiell has been able to put more of his own image on the roster, player development comes naturally and Simpson can be shepherded along on a more gradual track. But I do think he can eventually become the guy when everyone in front of him graduates, maybe as early as his junior year. The Temple game I mentioned stood out, and I remember telling Jerry Carino that night that it wouldn’t shock me if he were all-Big Ten two years from now.

RHI: Freshman Antwone Woolfolk is a bruiser. He's built. He's strong. He's athletic. What role do you think he will play on this team in the years to come? Can he develop into an elite interior player on this team?

JD: I like what I’ve seen from Antwone in his limited action. Much like Derek Simpson, he doesn’t need to do too much with Cliff Omoruyi and Dean Reiber in front of him, but I think he’ll be a serviceable big man who can be an unsung hero type down the road. I don’t know if he’s an elite presence yet, but he’ll definitely fill some gaps and not be pushed around in the process. In that sense, he’s a hybrid of C.J. Gettys and Deshawn Freeman, and I think as Rutgers continues to blossom, a lot of people lose sight of how indispensable those two were during Pikiell’s early years, so to compare Antwone to them is a huge compliment.

RHI: Tell us some things you think this team can improve upon to become an elite contender in the Big Ten some day?

JD: First and foremost, Rutgers NEEDS to upgrade the non-conference schedule. If not for how the last three Big Ten seasons have gone, Rutgers wouldn’t even be on the bubble otherwise with the way the non-conference has played out. And when you look within your own state and see how Kevin Willard — and now, Shaheen Holloway — would schedule at Seton Hall in order to prepare the Pirates for the Big East, it’s a level and an energy that should be at least matched in Piscataway, if not exceeded.

I’m not placing as much of a premium on recruiting as some others might, because when you win, you become more attractive. That always takes care of itself, and it’s being felt more and more with each new commitment. Gavin Griffiths wouldn’t have come to Piscataway before this recent run of success. Ace Bailey wouldn’t even give Rutgers the time or day a decade ago. But as the talent pool deepens and the expectations ramp up, Rutgers needs to make a stronger commitment to hold up its own end of the bargain. Playing a stronger non-conference slate and maybe getting into more multi-team events, as much as Pikiell has a disdain for them, would help.

From an administrative end, I think Pat Hobbs has already done more than enough since becoming the athletic director. Rutgers was too incompetent for too long at the top before he assumed the reins, and his fundraising and managing abilities continue to be a breath of fresh air. Trust his instincts, and you’ll see how much further the university’s profile will be elevated.

RHI: Unfortunately, in early February during the Rutgers-Michigan State game, Mawot Mag tore his ACL and has been declared out for the season. Since that game, Rutgers has gone 1-4 without Mag and have lost some of their swagger and confidence. They really haven't looked like the same team that beat Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern back in December/January. Rutgers was playing with a killer instinct. What do you think this team needs to do to get that swagger and confidence back?

JD: I think, and Cliff Omoruyi mentioned this in a postgame press conference earlier this season, Rutgers just needs to get back to basics and play more like itself. You can’t replace a guy with the energy and impact of Mawot Mag, but rather than try to replicate what he would normally bring to the table, I would try to take advantage of what else Rutgers has in order to maximize its strengths.

When you have a team connected and committed to getting the job done, that’s half the battle. No one can ever knock the grit or the heart on this team, and if some of the role players now stepping up into a more significant contribution with Mag out can be placed in positions that enable them to capitalize on advantages, that’s going to go a long way down the stretch.

RHI: At one point Rutgers was sitting in 2nd place at 8-4 in the Big Ten Conference and were 16-7 overall, but here we are heading into the last three games of the season and Rutgers is now 9-8 in 9th place, only a game ahead of Penn State and Wisconsin in league play. If Rutgers finished these last three games 1-2, would you feel this season would be a disappointment if this team finished 10-10 in the Big Ten Conference, possibly in the bottom tier of the standings?

JD: Not necessarily. Going into the year, I thought Rutgers’ ceiling was the NIT because the losses of Geo Baker and Ron Harper looked like too much to overcome on paper. I should have known better than to doubt Steve Pikiell, but that’s neither here nor there. If you can go 10-10 in a league like the Big Ten, that’s always an accomplishment unless you’re a Michigan State, Wisconsin, or some other program where deep runs through March are the expectation. Rutgers isn’t there yet, but will be soon if these trends continue. And if 10-10 is indeed the record, some of the 10 wins (at Purdue, Maryland, at Northwestern, Michigan State) certainly offset the 10 losses.

RHI: Do you think this current Rutgers team (without Mag) is STILL an NCAA Tournament team despite going 1-4 in their last five games?

JD: Yes. Rutgers’ metrics are still strong and some of the wins I mentioned in the last question are playing more into its favor than some other bubble teams who don’t have the standout victories that resonate this time of year. Brad Wachtel, a bracketologist who has been just as accurate as Joe Lunardi without the notoriety, even said the Purdue win moved the Scarlet Knights up a few seed lines. Northwestern is just as pivotal now with the Wildcats in the Top 25.

RHI: If Rutgers makes the NCAA Tournament, do you think this would be a successful season?

JD: Absolutely. Considering how most insiders looked at Rutgers going into the year, this was supposed to be the season where the Scarlet Knights retooled in a sense and built toward a more prosperous 2023-24 campaign. In that sense, you could say making the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season (would have been a fourth if not for COVID) is overachieving. But for this program, if it’s at a point where Rutgers is announced by Greg Gumbel on Selection Sunday and its name and logo appears on the bracket, you’ve done something right.

RHI: What do you think Rutgers needs to do in these last three games to ensure themselves a bid to the NCAA Tournament?

JD: Rutgers just has to take care of business. Penn State, Minnesota and Northwestern isn’t the most imposing finishing stretch a team could have, and even with those first two games on the road, it’s quite favorable. All Rutgers has to do is play smart, take each possession as it comes, try not to do too much, and the results will come.

RHI: It's been stated by many analysts and experts across college basketball that Steve Pikiell has consistently scheduled a weak non-conference schedule, and he relies mostly on winning in the Big Ten slate to improve his team's resume. However, to Pikiell's credit, he did try to schedule a game with Gonzaga this season but plans fell through when Gonzaga decided to play Michigan State on an aircraft carrier in San Diego instead. Rutgers has done a decent job this season in the non-conference slate by blowing out lesser competition which has helped boost their NET Ratings, but Rutgers still lost on a neutral floor to an average team in Temple and also lost on the road at Miami. Do you think Pikiell should make more of an effort to play a few more high mid-major programs in the non-conference slate? Should Rutgers try to play one to two very difficult opponents (Q1/2) in the non-conference slate? After Rutgers played Michigan State at The Garden and the fan turnout was incredible, other writers like Jerry Carino (of the Asbury Park Press) suggested Rutgers should try to schedule a neutral floor meeting at The Garden against a non-conference worthy opponent, do you agree? 

JD: Pikiell definitely should make a more concerted effort to beef up the non-conference schedule. That’s the difference between Rutgers being a 10 and 11 seed in the last two tournaments where even one more high-profile opponent could have put the Scarlet Knights on the 7, 8 or 9 lines. And if he doesn’t want to get into a MTE, schedule more home-and-home matchups.

As for the neutral sites, I would explore them within reason. Hubert Davis has been adamant about wanting to play more games at the Garden with North Carolina, so why not try to schedule UNC or maybe get into the Jimmy V Classic? Rutgers actually was going to play in the Jimmy V against Baylor two years ago, but when it was moved to the bubble in Orlando, it didn't line up with what Rutgers had already scheduled.

RHI: I think Rutgers should attempt to play a team like Fordham at Rose Hill Gym or Iona at Hynes. I know Pikiell loves to play at The RAC during the non-conference slate but what are the chances we see Rutgers possibly playing away at a mid-major program's building?

JD: I think those days have come and gone. At this point, it does more harm to Rutgers than good to play a mid-major on the road. That’s not a bad thing, but the profile of the program has been raised enough where Pikiell and the administration should be thinking bigger.

RHI: Jaden, like I said, there's three games left in the regular season, gives us your final thoughts on Rutgers and expectations going forward.

JD: All things considered, Rutgers is in a position this season that I think everybody would have signed for at the start of the year. This team being in position to once again make the NCAA Tournament is one of the better coaching jobs Steve Pikiell has done. From answering the questions about scoring and who would take the last shot to handling the rash of injuries and other adversity over the course of the year, he should be praised for managing it all and keeping the Scarlet Knights on the positive side of the bubble.

RHI: Jaden, once again, thanks so much for doing this Q&A with me today. It really was fun.

JD: My pleasure, Mark! Thank you for all you do.

Big Ten Weekly Power Rankings (thru games played February 27)

 

Rutgers searches for renewed confidence as fans begin to panic

 

photo courtesy of Getty Images

The Rutgers fan base is starting to panic as this team has been lacking confidence as of late. What does this team need to do to get their confidence back?

Ever since the ACL tear to Rutgers starter Mawot Mag, often known as the team's "glue guy", the 2022-23 season has taken an abrupt turn in the wrong direction for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was off to a fantastic start at 16-7 overall and sitting in second place at 8-4 in the Big Ten standings. These Scarlet Knights were riding a tremendous wave of momentum and were playing like a team on a mission to keep pace with the Big Ten's best for a possible top four finish. This Rutgers was team was full of confidence.

Now, Rutgers is 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the Big Ten standings. The Scarlet Knights find themselves in near crisis mode and have fallen from second place to eighth place in the Big Ten standings. While many bracketologists still project Rutgers to make the field of 68, Rutgers fans still have their doubts. 

If history has ever taught us anything, it's that these Rutgers Scarlet Knights should not be counted out.

A History of Having Their Backs Against The Wall

Towards the end of the 2019-20 season, Rutgers was on the verge of collapse after suffering three straight losses. Fans and experts alike felt Rutgers had to win their last two games to make the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out an upset over #9 Maryland and won a season defining victory at Purdue in OT. This would have been Rutgers' first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991 if the COVID-19 pandemic had not forced the NCAA to cancel its postseason tournament.

In the 2020-21 season, Rutgers had dropped three of their last four contests before their epic showdown at Minnesota. Rutgers had two choices: A) Win this game and earn a berth to the NCAA Tournament -or- B) Lose this game, miss out on the NCAA Tournament, and play in the NIT. With their backs against the wall, Rutgers pulled out a stunning overtime win over Minnesota to help them earn their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1991.

After a dreadful start to their non-conference portion of the 2021-22 season after suffering humiliating losses to Lafayette and Massachusetts, Rutgers was left for dead. Bart Torvik gave Rutgers less than 1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. However, Rutgers pulled off four stunning wins over ranked opponents in February to help catapult their NET Ranking. Suddenly, the Scarlet Knights dropped three contests in a row. They were faced with another dilemma they had seen before. Win your last two games and earn a berth into the NCAA Tournament. With their backs against the wall again, Rutgers pulled off a stunning road victory over Indiana and held on for dear life for a one point victory over Penn State to earn themselves another trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Now, Rutgers finds themselves in almost a very similar situation. With the losses mounting towards the end of the season, Rutgers will have their backs against the wall once again to prove they belong in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Scarlet Knights have three contests remaining on their regular season schedule. They have to go to battle with red-hot Penn State on Sunday in State College PA, a place Rutgers has never really been successful; hit the road next Thursday and play a plummeting Minnesota team desperate for another win; and conclude the regular season at home against a hungry Northwestern team that has shockingly ascended to near the top of the Big Ten.

The Impact of Losing Mag and the Way Forward

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

This season things are a little different. Rutgers has done everything they've needed to do to keep themselves in the NCAA Tournament conversation. Rutgers has zero Q4 losses and have blown out all of their Q4 opponents by 30 or more points. The Scarlet Knights have three Q1 road wins all against teams projected to make the tournament. Rutgers also owns the nation's best road win of the season as the Scarlet Knights shocked #1 Purdue in West Lafayette. Rutgers is currently 8-8 against Q1/2 opponents combined.

With all of the positives Rutgers has going for themselves, somehow things have unexpectedly unraveled once the Scarlet Knights lost their second best defender for the season. Rutgers has looked more vulnerable, less physical, and at times disoriented as a team. Leadership has been lacking from their three core veterans. They look like they've lost their confidence.

Mawot Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is.

Mawot Mag was truly the "glue-guy" and a Swiss Army knife for this team. Anyone who has ever watched Mawot Mag play over the years could tell you that he has developed into one hell of a defender. Mag has become one of the Big Ten's most disruptive, agitating defenders. He could be relied on to guard any player on the floor. That's how versatile of a defender he is. 

If you needed him to play strong, physical defense in the interior, he could do it. If you needed him to defend the perimeter, he is athletic and springy enough to shut down any sharp shooter from deep. 

On offense, Mag was one of the best mid-range shooters on the team and his three-point game was vastly improving. After all, it was Mag's game saving three-pointer that propelled Rutgers to victory over Ohio State back in mid-January.

But Rutgers has lost all of that, and it's become difficult for Steve Pikiell and this team to figure out how to fill the void left by an injured Mag. Interior and perimeter defense has dropped off significantly as opponents are converting at a higher percentage in the last five games without Mag. Offensively, Rutgers has struggled converting from mid-range without Mag.

Steve Pikiell has been forced to reach deep into his bench, and to rely on guys that don't play a whole lot of minutes to step up and help win games. At times, it's worked but at other times it's been ugly. 

It's hard as a team when you lose a significant piece. It affects your game. It affects the way you plan and prepare for opponents. It affects you mentally. Although it's hard to just "move on" from losing a teammate for the season, Rutgers has to move on for now and get back to playing its style of basketball. Rutgers has to find its confidence.

There's an old saying, 'when the going gets tough, the tough get going'. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers.

This team knows there are only three games left in the regular season. They know what is on the line. And they know what they have to do to get to the NCAA Tournament. There's an old saying, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. This team is more than capable of figuring it out. They are a resilient bunch who have been through so much in their lives and careers. 

We've seen the brilliant performances by Cam Spencer earlier in the season and what he is capable of doing. We've seen Cliff Omoruyi battle in the trenches and nearly become unstoppable in the post. We've seen what Paul Mulcahy can do when he's aggressive offensively and imposes his will on defenders. We've seen Derek Simpson come off the bench time and time again to provide a jolt and reinvigorate this team's offense down the stretch. We've seen Aundre Hyatt sink deep shots in critical moments of the game. We've seen Caleb McConnell suffocate opponents defensively to the point they cannot score. But, we haven't seen any of this in the last five games. 

Rutgers needs to get back to doing what they do best, and that's playing like they did earlier in the season. They need to play with fire. Passion. Intensity. It's truly what got them to the top of the standings mid-way through the season and have the rest of the nation believe Rutgers belongs with the best of the Big Ten.

Rutgers is truly at their best when Paul Mulcahy is playing like a floor general and dictating the tempo of the game, driving the lane, and most importantly shooting the ball. Rutgers will not win games if Mulcahy is not actively shooting the ball. He has been quite timid on offense in the last five games. Mulcahy is the true leader of this team, and he needs to take charge. He must keep his team cool at times and not allow frustration to be visible to the opponent. 

If Rutgers is to have any success going forward, the Scarlet Knights need to find ways to get Cam Spencer to shoot the ball. During this past five game stretch, Cam Spencer has not shot the ball enough other than his 22 point performance against Wisconsin. The ball needs to find its way into his hands. Spencer is at his best when plays are designed for him to catch and shoot.

In their last five games, Rutgers has been playing extremely sloppy on the offensive end. The passing hasn't been as crisp as it was earlier in the season, and too many unnecessary turnovers have plagued them. They have to find a way to get connected once again. In the Michigan game last week, we saw this team clawing its way back into the game but they couldn't quite get over the hill because of forcing plays and passes.

Clifford Omoruyi needs to have better awareness. Earlier in the year, you could expect Omoruyi to receive a lob pass at the last second that would lead to an emphatic dunk because he had the awareness. Lately, in these last five games, his awareness has drifted and often any last second dish to the big guy would result in him fumbling the ball away for a turnover.

Free-throw shooting has been downright abysmal in these last several games, and if Rutgers is to have any chance, they must convert 70% or better from the charity stripe. Last week, was probably the worst free-throw shooting performance we have seen from this team in a long time. They shot just 31% from the line against Michigan. 

photo courtesy of NJ Advance Media

It's tough to ask a lot from your bench but we've seen what this bench is capable of doing. It's not the most deep bench but guys like Derek Simpson have been able to provide offensive sparks. Oskar Palmquist has been able to drain key 3-point shots. Aundre Hyatt has been defending at a high-level and has been attacking the basket. Antwone Woolfolk played solid defense against Michigan's best player Hunter Dickinson. If Rutgers can get valuable minutes out of its bench and guys can continue to step up, it will surely make life easier for this team.

Defensively, Rutgers will never be able to replicate what Mag brought to the team. However, this team hasn't played too bad on defense. They actually have had solid performances on defense other than worst defensive performance against Nebraska two weeks ago. But Rutgers needs to generate offense from their defense as this team has not been able to get the ball out in transition after a steal, turnover, or rebound.

They can find their confidence again even through the struggles but they must never give up and keep working relentlessly on the floor. Sometimes it takes only a few big plays in a game to turn a team's confidence around.

Rutgers Fans, Don't Give Up On Your Team

Famous New Jersey college hoops beat writer and Jersey Jumpshot Podcast regular Jerry Carino has repeatedly said, "It's a long season filled with many twists and turns." College basketball is a long season. All teams have their ups and downs. Unfortunately, Rutgers is going through a down time during their season. 

Lately, Rutgers fans have expressed their disgust and frustration vocally and on social media about this team. Many have let panic settle in. But here's the reality of it. Teams go through losing streaks. If you think Rutgers is going to be perfect, especially in a tough Big Ten, then you are blinding yourself from the truth. No team in the Big Ten has been perfect this season.

I'm not sure how this regular season is going to end. I want to believe Rutgers is going to reverse its course and get back to winning their remaining games of the regular season. I want to be able to tell you they will make the NCAA Tournament. But we have to let these guys duel it out on the court.

Even if this team loses more games and even if they fail and miss the NCAA Tournament, it doesn't mean the season as a whole has been a failure. It would be disappointing but you learn from your failures. 

Look at Northwestern, and what Chris Collins, Boo Buie, and Chase Audige have endured for the last several years. They've been though the gambit of it all. Bottom of the Big Ten finishes for the last three seasons. But these guys never gave up, and they've learned from their failures, and now Northwestern finds themselves locked in for an NCAA Tournament bid and a top four finish in the Big Ten.

You have to look at some of the successes that also occurred off the floor this season. After all, Steve Pikiell and his coaching staff were still able to secure some of the nation's best recruits for the '23 and '24 classes. Pikiell still has this program ascending and reaching new heights. Who would've thought Rutgers could bring in 4-star and 5-star talent considering how bad Rutgers has been over the last few decades?

There's a lot to look forward to and the future is bright for Rutgers basketball. 

But, one thing is certain, do not give up on this team. There are still three games left in the regular season. There's a lot of basketball to be played. If Rutgers somehow can pull out some wins in their last three games and find their confidence again, Rutgers fans will be ecstatic when they hear their team's name announced on Selection Sunday.